Mebaran's 2013 MLB Hangout

[italianbandit]

Thanks a little luck is very helpful. Haven't had much time to crunch numbers. I'm a west coast capper, so it's usually the later games where I find something.

[EXhoosier10]

Thanks a little luck is very helpful. Haven't had much time to crunch numbers. I'm a west coast capper, so it's usually the later games where I find something.

Post those suckers when you get them. I never watch/listen to those games, so tough to pick up on the little things for those guys.

[italianbandit]

[No coincidences]

What do you guys think of the HOU TT over 3?

[EXhoosier10]

What do you guys think of the HOU TT over 3?

-Bartolo doesn't K many, houston will have more BIP than average, which is good.
-Houston hitters already saw him a week ago, also good.
-Splits show only Pena and Castro are above average v RHp. Altuve is much better against Lhp, average v righties.
-Nobody really has any speed
-Playing in oakland.
-a's pen is average. *Balfour and Doolittle have both been used back to back days, so if oakland is leading, setup/closer could be a bit fatigued or they could use different rp's.
-Houston's bats haven't really done much L5, average L10 (surprisingly).
-Umpire is Fagan, who in his brief history has a 62.8% strike%, which would rank him in the bottom third of umps.

Nothing really screams over for me. I'm playing hoping Norris has a good day against oakland and gives them a chance to win a low scoring game

[No coincidences]

-Bartolo doesn't K many, houston will have more BIP than average, which is good.
-Houston hitters already saw him a week ago, also good.
-Splits show only Pena and Castro are above average v RHp. Altuve is much better against Lhp, average v righties.
-Nobody really has any speed
-Playing in oakland.
-a's pen is average. *Balfour and Doolittle have both been used back to back days, so if oakland is leading, setup/closer could be a bit fatigued or they could use different rp's.
-Houston's bats haven't really done much L5, average L10 (surprisingly).
-Umpire is Fagan, who in his brief history has a 62.8% strike%, which would rank him in the bottom third of umps.

Nothing really screams over for me. I'm playing hoping Norris has a good day against oakland and gives them a chance to win a low scoring game

Good luck. I'll probably just pass.

Really warming to the idea of a 2U play on Arizona tonight -- may split it between FF and game. Thoughts?

[EXhoosier10]

Good luck. I'll probably just pass.

Really warming to the idea of a 2U play on Arizona tonight -- may split it between FF and game. Thoughts?

I think after capping that game I expected tos ee a line of -120 or -130. I don't think there was any real reason why i said no to playing it. I'll take another look in a few hours.

[No coincidences]

I think after capping that game I expected tos ee a line of -120 or -130. I don't think there was any real reason why i said no to playing it. I'll take another look in a few hours.

CC factor. Line's always inflated when he's on the bump.

[EXhoosier10]

CC factor. Line's always inflated when he's on the bump.

Agreed. Ari could be a good play for sure

[italianbandit]

Arizona FF +130 is my favorite handle on that game.

[EXhoosier10]

Card looks pretty sharp today. Here's all I could find.

4/18
KC @ Atl u7.5 -116 ~ 1u
SF @ Mil u8.5 -105 ~ 0.5u
Houston +167 ~ 0.75u
Was @ Mia o7.5 +110 ~ 0.5u

4/18: 2-2 +0.25u
YTD: 43-30-4 +6.8775u

[italianbandit]

Arizona over 4 -110. 1.5 units.

[EXhoosier10]

4/18
Stl -109 ~ 1u
Ari TT o4 -105 ~ 0.25u

Thanks for the tip, IB. Slow card and I'm always up to fade Hughes. Playing a bunch of props as well. Won't count towards the record, but here they are. Playing them all for .15u.

Most H+R+RBI
Holliday(stl)>Howard(phi)
Montero(Ari)>Wells(Nyy)

Most TB
Holliday(stl)>Utley(phi)
Jones(pit)>Heyward(atl)
Encarnacion(tor)>Rios(chw)
Longoria(tb)>Jones(bal)

[No coincidences]

Arizona over 4 -110. 1.5 units.

Pinny's juicing the under here. Interesting. Not sure if they're just playing tricks on us because the obvious choice is to fade Hughes again, or if he's actually going to come out and pitch well.

Good luck IB.

[italianbandit]

Yes, I capped it and liked the Diamondbacks tonight, and 2 of my rec locals were juicing the under...I don't think about tricks too much in early season MLB, everyone is still trying to get their feet wet. FF was the right play. Corbin was pitching against his favorite childhood team. Still might get lucky, but don't like to bet upstream.

[EXhoosier10]

Leans for tomrorow:
Lad
Stl
Min

[No coincidences]

Arizona over 4 -110. 1.5 units.

[italianbandit]

[EXhoosier10]

4/18
Stl -109 ~ 1u
Ari TT o4 -105 ~ 0.25u

Thanks for the tip, IB. Slow card and I'm always up to fade Hughes. Playing a bunch of props as well. Won't count towards the record, but here they are. Playing them all for .15u.

Most H+R+RBI
Holliday(stl)>Howard(phi)
Montero(Ari)>Wells(Nyy)

Most TB
Holliday(stl)>Utley(phi)
Jones(pit)>Heyward(atl)
Encarnacion(tor)>Rios(chw)
Longoria(tb)>Jones(bal)

Big props to Italianbandit for the tip on AZ. wasn't pretty (and took a couple catcher interferences and some misplayed balls in the OF), but got the W.

4/18: 2-0 +1.25u
YTD: 45-30-4 +8.1275

That somehow makes 7 winning days in a row. Doesn't feel like it for some reason.
L7 days
25-9-3 +8.745u

[EXhoosier10]

slowly ramping up units. If anyone is actually coming into the thread and tailing, I liked STL more last night but played for only 1u, so plan your unit size accordingly.

Boooked:
LAD +114 ~ 1.25u

[EXhoosier10]

Upset i missed this earlier.
Atl @ Pit o7 -112 ~ 1u

[italianbandit]

Astros over 4, -103 .5 unit

[EXhoosier10]

Astros over 4, -103 .5 unit

Seeing this a little late, but good call IB. I was on Cle @ Hou o8.5 -103 for 0.5u too

[EXhoosier10]

Looking through today's card. Not sure i'll be able to get to it all, but we'll see

[EXhoosier10]

4/21
Sea +150 ~ 1u
Min +132 ~ 1.5u
Min TTo3.5 -105 ~ 1u

[italianbandit]

Nice hit on Min. I've been sick no capping.

[italianbandit]

I love Arizona FF tomorrow.

[EXhoosier10]

Hard to fade vogelsong at home, but I'll take a deeper look at it tomorrow. I like the way SF's offense is perfectly set up to match their home park and 'zona's power is pretty much sapped in that stadium. If probably rate Offense as a tossup, I think +125 or +130 could be worth it. +110 might be pushing it IMO.

Like I said, I never know how to play all these west coast teams. Every stadium out there is an outlier compared to the rest of the country. Colorado, SD, Sea, SF, OAk, Texas...

[italianbandit]

Weather plays a part in keeping flyballs down at ATT. From June till August there is a heavy fog on most nights as the cold Pacific Ocean collides with very warm air coming from central California. So I would say ATT park plays more like ATT park then. It would be a good project to back test this and get a variable on runs scored on nights with fog and not. Or comparing a homerun/fly ball ratio. It will be warm tomorrow.

To tell you the truth I misread a report that Bochy was going to rest Posey tomorrow. There was a good chance he would rest him today but didn't. I thought the info was public and +110 is a good buy without him in the lineup. Miley can't get him out. With Hill on the DL, who crushes Vogelsong, the line seems correct.

I do get overly excited when I see I Vogelsong pitch this year. I don't think his style of pitching can survive a 2 mile an hour drop on his fastball. I still think it may be a profitable proposition to fade him FF until he shows he get into a grove.

[italianbandit]

Just for fun...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/asking-ryan-vogelsong-about-his-fip/

[EXhoosier10]

4/19: 0-1 -1.12u

4/21
Sea +150 ~ 1u
Min +132 ~ 1.5u
Min TTo3.5 -105 ~ 1u

4/21: 2-1 +1.98u
YTD: 47-32-4 +8.9875

Make that 7 out of 8 winning days.

[EXhoosier10]

Beginning of the card
4/22:
Stl -102 ~ 0.5u
Chc +154 ~ 0.3u

WIll play cubs FF as well for 0.5u when that comes out

[EXhoosier10]

well what the F.... Looks like i've been limited at Heritage. Been playing there since BetJam closed a few years back and have yet to cash out. Just deposited $2,500 over the past few weeks and I'm up 900 with them this season going 22-12 on sides+totals. Just started playing props a few days ago and i'm 7-2 with 5 pushes +$137 betting $25 a pop. I went 52-67 -$900 last year with them. Why would they possibly limit me?

my unit this season was going to be ~$175 and I will be betting 1-5u per game, so this is a pretty decent hit since i'm now left with 5d and bovada and 1/4 of my br stuck at heritage that can't be cashed out until whenever i roll it over. I'll give them a call later today, but wanted to see if anyone else has any thoughts. Thanks guys

edit: adding that i've only had 4 plays with them for $200-$250 and i'm 1-2-1 -$300.

[No coincidences]

well what the F.... Looks like i've been limited at Heritage. Been playing there since BetJam closed a few years back and have yet to cash out. Just deposited $2,500 over the past few weeks and I'm up 900 with them this season going 22-12 on sides+totals. Just started playing props a few days ago and i'm 7-2 with 5 pushes +$137 betting $25 a pop. I went 52-67 -$900 last year with them. Why would they possibly limit me?

my unit this season was going to be ~$175 and I will be betting 1-5u per game, so this is a pretty decent hit since i'm now left with 5d and bovada and 1/4 of my br stuck at heritage that can't be cashed out until whenever i roll it over. I'll give them a call later today, but wanted to see if anyone else has any thoughts. Thanks guys

edit: adding that i've only had 4 plays with them for $200-$250 and i'm 1-2-1 -$300.

That's ridiculous. There's no reason for that.

[No coincidences]

Beginning of the card
4/22:
Stl -102 ~ 0.5u
Chc +154 ~ 0.3u

WIll play cubs FF as well for 0.5u when that comes out

Like the Cubs play -- especially FF.