Mebaran's 2013 MLB Hangout

[EXhoosier10]

Beginning of the card
4/22:
Stl -102 ~ 0.5u
Chc +154 ~ 0.3u

WIll play cubs FF as well for 0.5u when that comes out

4/22:
Stl -102 ~ 0.5u
Stl -107 ~ 0.3u
Chc +154 ~ 0.3u
Chc FF +143 ~0.7u

Failed miserably at reading the boston line and am passing at -120. should it get back down to -110, i'll play it for 0.5u. I'm not sure how to read a team coming off a DH

[italianbandit]

Cards bullpen is a bit volatile right now.

[EXhoosier10]

Cards bullpen is a bit volatile right now.

After looking at stats, Boggs& Salas are the only two I'm worreid about. Boggs won't pitch today, Salas could.

Cards 'pen has a .350 BABIP, 20% LD% (lg avg ~20.5), 11.8% HR/FB rate coupled with a 32% FB rate. Those all scream average while being above avg at getting GB's. That BABIP will hover around .285 RoS should things stay the same; they've been getting really unlucky

[No coincidences]

After looking at stats, Boggs& Salas are the only two I'm worreid about. Boggs won't pitch today, Salas could.

Cards 'pen has a .350 BABIP, 20% LD% (lg avg ~20.5), 11.8% HR/FB rate coupled with a 32% FB rate. Those all scream average while being above avg at getting GB's. That BABIP will hover around .285 RoS should things stay the same; they've been getting really unlucky

Alphabet soup isn't much better.

Boggs needs to be in Triple-A.

[EXhoosier10]

Alphabet soup isn't much better.

Boggs needs to be in Triple-A.

Thought you were talking about all thsoe different stats at first. Zep (idon't even know where to begin when trying to spell that name) looks like he has been right in line with previous years (slightly better, actually. 2 walks vs 35 batters faced is a better ratio than verlander had last year). His line drive rate is 12% and has a .400 BABIP. over a full season, a 12% LD rate should be like a .260 babip. All this to say that i'm not really worried; his peripherals look great and he has a history of non-failure.

Boggs and Salas look to have velocity issues to compound their poor performance. they're at least worth watching before i say they'll go back to being trustworthy

[No coincidences]

Thought you were talking about all thsoe different stats at first. Zep (idon't even know where to begin when trying to spell that name) looks like he has been right in line with previous years (slightly better, actually. 2 walks vs 35 batters faced is a better ratio than verlander had last year). His line drive rate is 12% and has a .400 BABIP. over a full season, a 12% LD rate should be like a .260 babip. All this to say that i'm not really worried; his peripherals look great and he has a history of non-failure.

Boggs and Salas look to have velocity issues to compound their poor performance. they're at least worth watching before i say they'll go back to being trustworthy

For as good as Rzepczynski was during their WS run, I've been far less than impressed with him during the regular season over the course of his career. I haven't looked much into his advanced stats -- just going by the eye test (I see quite a few StL games).

Boggs and Salas are toast, and Rzep is far from reliable. Mix that with Shelby Miller being a rookie and on a relatively short leash and Matheny being borderline dunce material at times with the way he handles this ballclub, and I'm just worried about their chances tonight in Washington. I'm normally all for fading Haren -- he's a bum in my book -- but this game worries me. I hope you've got it pegged. Have no idea why the books love the under so much.

[EXhoosier10]

Anyway, anyone flummoxed by the Colorado and White Sox lines? I'm tempted to parlay the two dogs at +300. Playing them both and hoping for a split at +105/+110 isn't really worth it IMO.

Minor was -180 at home his last start against KC. Colorado bats are better than KC's, but wade davis is better than jeff francis. Line seems kind of fishy.

Indians and ChiSox same thing. Axelrod is AAA guy and Masterson should be riding high. WHy is the line a pick 'em? Sox don't hit Masterson extremely well or anything... -110 screams trap to me

[italianbandit]

Ha, thats what i thought he meant as well. I guess I should have said volatility in terms of roles in the bullpen.

[No coincidences]

Anyway, anyone flummoxed by the Colorado and White Sox lines? I'm tempted to parlay the two dogs at +300. Playing them both and hoping for a split at +105/+110 isn't really worth it IMO.

Minor was -180 at home his last start against KC. Colorado bats are better than KC's, but wade davis is better than jeff francis. Line seems kind of fishy.

Indians and ChiSox same thing. Axelrod is AAA guy and Masterson should be riding high. WHy is the line a pick 'em? Sox don't hit Masterson extremely well or anything... -110 screams trap to me

I like Colorado, despite Francis being Francis. Not sure what to think re: CLE/CHW. You're right: line screams White Sox or no play, but I can't back that team in good conscience right now given Dunn is an absolute black hole at the plate. Hard to get a good read on which Masterson shows up on a given night as well; he's either great or awful.

[No coincidences]

Ha, thats what i thought he meant as well. I guess I should have said volatility in terms of roles in the bullpen.

The more I watch the Cards, the more I wonder what goes through Matheny's head.

[EXhoosier10]

I like Colorado, despite Francis being Francis. Not sure what to think re: CLE/CHW. You're right: line screams White Sox or no play, but I can't back that team in good conscience right now given Dunn is an absolute black hole at the plate. Hard to get a good read on which Masterson shows up on a given night as well; he's either great or awful.

Dunn has actually seen Masterson pretty well wtih only 7 K's in 33 PA's (.22 K% compared to his normal .35). I like minor, but he's only pitched in coors once and gave up 8 runs in 4 or 5 innings. My buddy has been pressing me to do parlays, so i might play this one at +330. I think it has a better chance of hitting than last night's Ben Revere no hits prop at +195. Might just go wild and throw Toronto in it as well. I could use a good 8unit swing right now

[No coincidences]

Dunn has actually seen Masterson pretty well wtih only 7 K's in 33 PA's (.22 K% compared to his normal .35). I like minor, but he's only pitched in coors once and gave up 8 runs in 4 or 5 innings. My buddy has been pressing me to do parlays, so i might play this one at +330. I think it has a better chance of hitting than last night's Ben Revere no hits prop at +195. Might just go wild and throw Toronto in it as well. I could use a good 8unit swing right now

I'm not feeling Toronto as much as I was earlier, but if you see an angle, take it.

Dunn isn't seeing anything well right now. He's hitting like he's blindfolded.

Let's keep our fingers crossed and our balls covered re: Colorado and Francis if you play them. I took them for a unit.

I actually took Houston as well. Seems crazy on paper, but Felix is ridiculously overpriced given the M's just aren't that good right now.

[EXhoosier10]

So much for these parlays. Now i'm just banking on the whitesox to win... wtf

[italianbandit]

Good luck EX, I trailed on Cubs and rooting for Cards to win for you. Will continue to bring good luck.

[EXhoosier10]

thanks IB. Lets keep this thing rollin'. These player props have gotten out of control and i have 5u spread out over 10 or so of these H+R+RBI bets. I need to cut down on these things before I bury myself

[italianbandit]

Nice hit on Cubs FF, props are great bets, but there is only so much time in a day. Of course the Cards game is a bullpen game, I hope they shut them down. Really tried a way to fade Sabathia tonight, but couldn't find a number I liked.

[italianbandit]

[EXhoosier10]

Nice hit on Cubs FF, props are great bets, but there is only so much time in a day. Of course the Cards game is a bullpen game, I hope they shut them down. Really tried a way to fade Sabathia tonight, but couldn't find a number I liked.

Thanks buddy. We've been rolling pretty hot lately when we combine on a play. I was in the same situation on TB. THought I played them at -115 or so this morning but got home tonight to check my bets and didnt' ahve anything pending. Wasn't going to play that or Boston after missing 10-15 cents.

ANy thoughts on tomorrow's card? I think i'm definitely going to play the Cards for > 1u and i'll probably back Kershaw as well for .5 - 1u

[EXhoosier10]

Booking these over night
Cin -1 -113 ~ .5u
Will add FF tomorrow for 1u. Bullpens should both be worn down and I don't want to deal with that
Stl -104 ~ 2u

My thinking on stl is that wainwright will never be a dog against detwiler when he's healthy, so the line can't get much better; might as well book now. At least I know trap lines can get beat as seen with Cleveland today

[italianbandit]

Cubs full game result was ugly. Good bet sizing. Vogelsong result was perfect, I cashed a small FF (on my fade Vogelsong line) bet and the Giants won, perhaps keeping his demise a bit tampered in his standard stats. Gonna look at this games peripherals to see if I see further regression.

I like LAD with you. .5 unit at -1. Also like Cingrani, but prefer FF.

It appears Pujols 0-5 tonight (I mentioned in another thread before the game) is in a plantarfascitis flairup and the team is thinking of puting him on the 15 day DL, I can see a few more bad games from him, might be worth it to bet some prop on this.

I think the Brewers will continue their hot hitting against C Richard, will take a look at their TT over tomorrow.

The double headers throw things for a loop as lineups and bullpens will be scattered. I liked the Rockies to score a bit off of Teheran maybe a TT over. I also want to fade Pelfrey and may do a TT over in Miami in Game 2.

Also want to see Texas' TT at my book, I think they continue their good hitting trend off of Vargas.

Oakland +112 might be a good buy.

[EXhoosier10]

4/22:
Stl -102 ~ 0.5u
Stl -107 ~ 0.3u
Chc FF +143 ~0.7u
Chc +154 ~ 0.3u ~~~~~ kill me

4/22: 3-1 +1.51u
YTD: 50-33-4 +10.4885u

[No coincidences]

4/22: 3-1 +1.51u
YTD: 50-33-4 +10.4885u

Nice work, Ex.

I like Oakland, IB.

[EXhoosier10]

Updated 4/23
Cin -1 -113 ~ .5u
Stl -104 ~ 2u

KC +163 ~ 1u
Col +107 ~ 1u
Col FF +105 ~ .25u

[No coincidences]

Updated 4/23
Cin -1 -113 ~ .5u
Stl -104 ~ 2u

KC +163 ~ 1u
Col +107 ~ 1u
Col FF +105 ~ .25u

I'll take Colorado if the lineups are what I'm anticipating.

KC +163 is a joke. It may not cash, but the Tigers are so overpriced here it's not even funny.

[EXhoosier10]

Updated 4/23
Cin -1 -113 ~ .5u
Stl -104 ~ 2u
KC +163 ~ 1u
Col +107 ~ 1u
Col FF +105 ~ .25u

Updated 4/23
Cin -1 -113 ~ .5u
Stl -104 ~ 2u
KC +163 ~ 1u
Col +107 ~ 1u
Col FF +105 ~ .25u

Stl FF -108 ~ 1u

[italianbandit]

Miami +125 FF, 1 unit.

[italianbandit]

Also 1 unit Mil over 3.5 -125, bought in morning.

[EXhoosier10]

Adding
Mil -121 ~ 0.75u
Mil TTo3.5 -125 ~ 0.5u
Ari @ SF u6.5 -108 ~ 0.5u

[EXhoosier10]

Adding
Laa -102 ~ 0.5u

[EXhoosier10]

Miami +125 FF, 1 unit.

Nice start italian. I completely forgot what you sent me about Pelfrey. These doubleheaders are throwing my spreadsheet for a loop. Trying to do fanduel, player props, and last second ML bets all right as game times roll around and its impossible to get everythign in. Might bail on player props here soon as they're just so time consuming checking 40 different players + pitchers

[No coincidences]

Adding
Mil -121 ~ 0.75u
Mil TTo3.5 -125 ~ 0.5u
Ari @ SF u6.5 -108 ~ 0.5u

I'm tailing you on this. I've been staring at it all day.

[EXhoosier10]

Carlos Marmol, you are a beautiful man!

[No coincidences]

Carlos Marmol, you are a beautiful man!

Incredible.

[italianbandit]

Don't like Angels here. But am laying off Texas TT over... I can't see Brewers winning in a low scoring game, so TT over is my favorite bet. Fences are closer in SD.

[EXhoosier10]

Don't like Angels here. But am laying off Texas TT over... I can't see Brewers winning in a low scoring game, so TT over is my favorite bet. Fences are closer in SD.

I'm tailing fishhead here. I agree wtih you on playing Texas TTover. I'm cheering for a big night from Cruz + Kinsler!