Mebaran's 2013 MLB Hangout

[italianbandit]

Good luck with your new place, spring in Chicago is awesome, my wife grew up there.

[EXhoosier10]

Gattis is a stud. And this braves team is on a roll. GOing to be interesting to see how they do against a real team in washington this weekend

[EXhoosier10]

Atlanta gets the over 7.5 themselves. I'll chalk this up as 2-0 today +.9u. I'll update record tomorrow. Gl to everyone else the rest of the night

[No coincidences]

Atlanta gets the over 7.5 themselves. I'll chalk this up as 2-0 today +.9u. I'll update record tomorrow. Gl to everyone else the rest of the night

Nice work. You had to sweat that over out way too much.

[italianbandit]

There goes my Cubs bet, pitching change.

[italianbandit]

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011WCAS1093.1?journalCode=wcas

Cloud coverage in baseball games.

[italianbandit]

Cubs over 3.5 -110 .5 units

[EXhoosier10]

Cubs over 3.5 -110 .5 units

nice hit italian.

4/11
Lad @ SD o7.5 -115
Lad TTo4 -115
each for 0.5u

[EXhoosier10]

4/6: 5-2 +1.375u
YTD: 11-9-1 +0.7175u

Yesterday went 3-7 -1.62u

4/8
Min @ KC - Royals should be without Holland and Herrera today after back to back outings. Ervin and Correia is probably an even SP matchup with 4.5 ERAs. Hitters are close enough that this should be a tossup. Line looks to be going up for minny, but I don't see any reason it should continue in said pattern. I'm going to jump on it now. Min +133 ~ 0.5u***

*** went to place the Twins bet and the line was up to +137 at heritage. I'm going to wait for lineups before doing anything as I want to look into what is causing this movement.


EDIT: the line dropped to +128 at 5d and +136 @ Heritage. I just booked MIN +136 for 0.5u

0-1 -.5

4/8 night games
NYM @ Phi - Harvey vs halladay is a pretty good matchup. Halladay being 'hurt' is a big question mark for Philly, and for that reason I can't fathom any reason to back the phillies. Halladay gave up a boatload of runs last start, so expecting him to matchup against the likely rookie pitcher of the year with nasty stuff is asking a bit too much. Only thing to worry about here is that the phillies are throwing a bunch of lefties at Harvey, but Harvey has a decent changeup, so he should be able to deal with this. If halladay struggles, the offensive difference between the two teams shouldn't really matter. I'm gonig to continue to fade Doc until he shows some life, so i played Mets FF +101 ~ 0.5u. I'd still probably play -107 at 5dimes. Full game shouldn't be that dangerous at +odds, but I'll avoid BP's for this as even if old Doc shows up, Harvey should eb able to keep them in the game
Atl @ Mia - Maholm has really turned a corner since last year, and took yet another step forward once getting to atlanta. I usually don't lay chalk this big, but Atlanta deserves it today. Although Slowey is a FB pitcher and is still pitching in a big park, but he doesn't really strike anyone out, which is the weakness of Atlanta. I'm playing a small amount on the -1 RL. ATL -1 -131 ~ 0.3u

2-0 +.8

I like your thoughts on Colorado. I took Oak +147 and Col +143 last night before I went to sleep. Also took Miami +RL -107 and ML +165.

1-1 +.235

That being said, I hit Atlanta @ Miami o7.5 -105 ~ 0.4u early this afternoon. Also playing Atlanta ML or RL, havent decided which.

1-0 +.4

Added Atl for 0.5u

1-0 +.5

that brings me YTD: 19-18-1 +0.5325 with tonight's two+ games pending

[italianbandit]

Thanks, you mean 7 on SD. Good luck. I bought a little too.

[EXhoosier10]

nice hit italian.

4/11
Lad @ SD o7.5 -115
Lad TTo4 -115
each for 0.5u

yes, IB, i do mean LAD @ SD o7 -115. good catch. hopefully dodgers put up a 10 spot and it doesn't matter

[EXhoosier10]

A Gon 2 run HR. How is Jason Marquis still employed?

[EXhoosier10]

dodgers have 7 LOB through three innings. seriously?

[EXhoosier10]

nice hit italian.

4/11
Lad @ SD o7.5 -115
Lad TTo4 -115
each for 0.5u

0-2 -1.15
YTD:19-20-1 -0.6175u

[EXhoosier10]

4/12
Mia +112 ~ 0.5u
TB +112 ~ 0.5u
Nym -102 ~ 0.75u

[No coincidences]

Not sure what made you get off the LAD TT over and game over Ex, but it's like you had a crystal ball. Would've been a maddingly frustrating loss, given how many baserunners the Dodgers stranded. Only at PETCO could you get a 3-2 game out of that mess.

[No coincidences]

My bad -- I thought you had taken the plays down. Ugh, what a bad beat.

[EXhoosier10]

My bad -- I thought you had taken the plays down. Ugh, what a bad beat.

I thought I forgot to update umpires and decided it wasn't worth the play, so i took it down. I already had made the plays, so I double checked and realized I was right the first time, so put the plays back up. Besides the fact that I stayed up much later than I should have to watch all of these guys get LOB, I went to bed after the 5th inning and missed the brawl. Greinke has been my favorite pitcher since he was drafted and this injury news kinda blows

[No coincidences]

I thought I forgot to update umpires and decided it wasn't worth the play, so i took it down. I already had made the plays, so I double checked and realized I was right the first time, so put the plays back up. Besides the fact that I stayed up much later than I should have to watch all of these guys get LOB, I went to bed after the 5th inning and missed the brawl. Greinke has been my favorite pitcher since he was drafted and this injury news kinda blows

I wouldn't want to be Quentin in the next LAD/SD game. That's the one to watch -- last night might've been a tea party compared to what's going to happen on Monday.

[EXhoosier10]

4/12
Mia +112 ~ 0.5u
TB +112 ~ 0.5u
Nym -102 ~ 0.75u

Adding
Hou +185 ~0.25u
will play Houston FF as well. Hoping the angels get hit a bit more and I get to the +175 range at some point before gametime. not sure it's going to happen, though

[EXhoosier10]

Played hou ff +170 for .5u. Nice win for cubs backers btw. Watched the 9th from the knothole in right and it was pretty exciting

[italianbandit]

Jays-102, 1 unit

[italianbandit]

Nice day EX

[EXhoosier10]

Nice hit on Toronto, ib. I had my eye on Cleveland and the jays all morning but never got a chance to get on my computer to run numbers yesterday afternoon. Happ is a solid pitcher.

[EXhoosier10]

4/12
Mia +112 ~ 0.5u
TB +112 ~ 0.5u
Nym -102 ~ 0.75u

Adding
Hou +185 ~0.25u
will play Houston FF as well. Hoping the angels get hit a bit more and I get to the +175 range at some point before gametime. not sure it's going to happen, though

Played hou ff +170 for .5u. Nice win for cubs backers btw. Watched the 9th from the knothole in right and it was pretty exciting

2-1 +1.5625
YTD: 22-20-1 +0.945u

Eventually I'll start upping unit size. I haven't quite had the time to get my model up and running, so whenever I have time to do that, I'll start throwing around normal plays. Bets will consist of 1-5 unit plays.

[EXhoosier10]

4/13
Atl @ Was - If braves get up to +160, i'll probably play them. Hudson is old, but not +160 old. wait
SF @ CHc - Samardzija is good, but even money against Bumgarner? That's absurd. Rizzo can't hit lefties, sori can't play in cold weather. Shark can't go deep into games, so expect the cubs bullpen to at least go 2 or 3 innings. SF -109 ~ 1u
TB @ Bos - Think boston wins it, but i'm not laying -130 against Price. pass
Chw @ Cle - CLeveland has the hitting advantage, Sale much better thanMcallister. I'll pass at -130
Bal @ Nyy - I don't really understand this line. Who's buying Phil Hughes being a star? He's a #4 starter and Hammel turned a corner once he got out of Colorado. Hitters are a slight lean to Nyy, but just barely. Bal +115 ~ 0.75u
Det @ Oak - saw some notes on crisp being hurt and a few other things. Waiting to see lineups here. wait
Nym @ Min - Harvey is good. Diamond is bad. Twins hit righties, mets don't hit LHP at all. lean Minny at +125, but won't touch unless i see +140 or better. pass
Mil @ Stl - St Louis should win, but there's no sense in laying -180 against Gallardo. Guy is getting rocked this year and his velocity is down, but he is capable of shutting a team down. pass

Those are my thoughts on early games. Got some things to do for a bit, will take a look at night games later. No o/u umps today, so i'll probably be passing on totals today.

[EXhoosier10]

Adding Detroit -122 for 0.5u to close out the early games

4/13 night games
Cin @ Pit - Reds aren't nearly the offensive juggernaut against LHP as they are against RHP. Locke isn't a great prospect, but he could be serviceable. I lean pitt, but just slightly. Would consider playing pitt +160, but for now, pass
Tor @ KC - Bonifacio should be able to step in for reyes and produce decent enough to avoid a huge dropoff in talent. Not sure I feel comfortable taking KC at -130, so I'd lean Toronto. Not sure how to play Dickey at this point. He's been pretty wild with 4 and 2 walks in his games. I'll pass
Phi @ Mia - Hamels at -130 might have been a fine bet to make, but not at -150. Fernandez never got above A ball before, so I'd imagine he has a short honeymoon phase for a couple of starts getting by on pure stuff and then teams will start picking him up a little better. For now, he's a good pitcher with some pretty good swing and miss stuff. i've backed miami too many times already this season, so i'm goign to pass. Value plays are only good plays when they're on a team that wins once in a while. pass
Lad @ Ari - Early in the season, I think Ryu has the advantage in this pitchign matchup. Dodgers have a wOBA of .109 in high leverage situations this year. They may be pressing, but their current form is pretty unsustainable. I'll take them here at + odds. I'm going to wait until closer to gametime for the bet though. Current line is +115 at heritage, I'm thinking it'll get up to +120. wait, but will play LAD

I'm getting sick of writing. Leaning over 7 in san diego as well

[EXhoosier10]

Booked Lad +115 ~ 0.5u

[EXhoosier10]

Booked
Col @ SD o7.5 -102 ~ 0.25u
Col TT o3.5 -115 ~ 0.25u
Col @ SD FF o3.5 -120 ~ 0.5u

[EXhoosier10]

Also good to see cueto leave the game early. Buccos have a chance!

[italianbandit]

Great day EX. You're seeing the ball real well. Looking at tomorrow's card now

[No coincidences]

Ex is in a zone. Nice work.

[EXhoosier10]

Great day yesterday, thanks guys
7-0 + 3.9375u plus Atlanta and Pittsburgh both cashed on unposted plays.
YTD: 29-22-1 +4.8825u

I'll probably give it another week before I move into 1-2 unit plays, then i'll ramp it up probably in May to 1-5u.

[EXhoosier10]

7/14
Played these last night
Chw - 131 ~ 0.6u
Cin -137 ~ 0.5U
Hou @ Laa o8 -110 ~ 0.5u
TB +133 ~ 0.5u

waiting for Cubs FF
Leaning Stl o8, Ari o9, Hou TTo3

EDIT: anybody have thoughts on this Tor/KC game? Read a bit on Morrow being out of whack last start (mechanically), anybody have any thoughts? Could he be hurt? His velocity is up so far this season and he seems to have added a cutter, but not sure how to put it all together.

[EXhoosier10]

Added:
Cubs FF +101 ~ 0.5u
Det @ Oak o8 -105 ~ 0.25u
Det TTo4.5 +105 ~ 0.25u
KC -108 ~ 0.5u