My favorite play is the Cubs FF and game, got +112 last night. KC/Tor game is hard for me to get a read on, i dont think Morrow is injured. Good luck, I hope you sweep again.
-
Comment -
7/14
Chw - 131 ~ 0.6u ~~~~~ +0.5u
Cubs FF +101 ~ 0.5u ~~~~~ +0.505u
KC -108 ~ 0.5u ~~~~~ +0.5u
Det @ Oak o8 -105 ~ 0.25u ~~~~~ +0.25u
Det TTo4.5 +105 ~ 0.25u ~~~~~ +0.2625u
TB +133 ~ 0.5u ~~~~~ -0.5u
Cin -137 ~ 0.5U ~~~~~ -0.685
Hou @ Laa o8 -110 ~ 0.5u ~~~~~ -0.55u
5 -3 +0.285
YTD: 34 - 25 - 1 +5.1675uComment -
Lol, how's my thread doing?? Sorry everyone who was interested this year...Just not enough time in the day, unfortunately.Comment -
Things have been going so well that it'd be bad luck for me to make my own thread. Maybe some day I'll get bored and move out, but I think this is home, now.Comment -
4/15
Shaping up to be a 0 side day. O/U's are pending umpire assignmentsComment -
EX, you can give me some of the credit for good luck. I've been back tested and its confirmed I'm a good luck charm.Comment -
IB, every play you post in here is sharp as hell. Keep 'em comin!
Plays for tomorrow,
4/16
Over 8 in Pittsburgh -110 ~ 1.25u
No idea why that total is set so low with those pitchers + a strong over ump. Throw in the bullpen shituation that St Louis possesses and I'd be shocked if this doesn't close at 9
Under 8 Phi @ Cin -105 ~ 0.3u
Will likely add on another 0.5u or so with Philly's team total under 3.5Comment -
ANybody thinking of laying chalk in just about every game tomorrow? Fav's seem really underpriced. eg Detroit, Texas, Angels, Dodgers, Toronto (also -1.5), and StL -1. Dogs I'm considering are Arizona, Philadelphia, and Boston.
I'll look into toronto and JJ before placing that bet, but the rest i'm pretty sure I'll play.Comment -
No play on the late games Ex?Comment -
I like Milone tonight (I have him as my SP in all my fanduel leagues), but Bedard should hold his own as he's a capable pitcher. I'd play oakland here at -190 against houston unless bedard or norris were pitching.
Dodgers, Billingsley had no reason to ever sniff a -180 line. At the same time, Stults is a junk baller and could easily get lit up.
So far this year I haven't played many #4/#5 starters and these mediocre west coast teams tend to be the teams I least understand as I never get to watch them play living in the midwest.
Edit: Schrieber is behind the plate at Chavez. Going to play the over of some sort. A tight strike zone for either pitcher could lead to a few big innings. WIll update soonComment -
I don't mess with Bedard, because if he's on, he's really on. But when he's bad, he knows how to stink up the joint.
I like that over, but it's always hard for me to pull the trigger on overs at C/R. Wonder what kind of night it is weather-wise there; air can get so heavy at times (not to mention how anemic both offenses are).Comment -
54 degrees and 80% humidity. I'm going to double check because this isn't making sense right now, but i thought high humidity helped teh ball carryComment -
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/285/ Not sure this is that strong of a play, and i might lay off as lineups suck and Dodgers don't hit lefties like they hit righties. I'm going to see if i can find a play that corresponds to high walks and low k's.Comment -
H+R+RBI prop -110 ~ 0.25u
Yonder Alonso > Andre EthierComment -
Pulling the trigger. Schrieber is an autoplay, even if it's for a lesser amount
SD @ Lad FF o3.5 +100 ~ 0.4uComment -
Yesterday: 2-0 +0.65u.
YTD: 36 - 25 - 1 +5.8175u
Ethier stood no chance on that prop.Comment -
As stated, this is going to be a chalky day. Trying to lay RL where possible.
4/16
Stl @ Pit o8 -110 ~ 1.25u
Phi @ Cin u8 -105 ~0.3u
Ari +118 ~ 0.5u
Stl -1.5 +105 ~ 0.75u
Bos -103 ~ 0.75u
Atl -1.5 +120 ~ 0.5u
Tex -130 ~ 0.5u
Det -140 and -148 ~ 0.5u and 0.25u
waiting for Phi TTu3 or u3.5
lean dodgers -1
Miami TTo3 is a thought as well. Want to fade Haren, but Miami can't score. Might find a prop i like insteadComment -
I don't necessarily disagree with any of your plays, but you're right: it's a lot of public chalk. Think I like Detroit the most, but you're paying the price for it. Atlanta worries me. I think that's going to be a low-scoring game, and honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if KC won SU. Personally speaking, I'd rather play the Royals at the + number than the ATL RL, but Medlen is a blind spot for me so I'm probably wrong.
Good luck tonight Ex.Comment -
Great call on STL. over.Comment -
My book situation seems to get worse weekly, cutting me off from Betproplus - a nice small, slow rec book. I don't think it's my action as I mix things up, but I guess he is no longer doing business with them. I need to figure this out. I had it made for years having 5 dimes with a local and several rec books and a comfortable credit line. I guess all good things come to an end.
Anyhow I like over Angels 4.5 tonight. I got it at -110. The Angels will score runs this year and their stock is low right now, which is when I like to buy. Pelfrey is the kind of pitcher they can feast off of.Comment -
I like the Angels ML tonight, so i'm with you on them pounding Pelfrey. As I look it up, they're actually the #1 hitting team with bases empty and dead last with RISP. That's an absurd split and somethign that should even itself out as the season goes on. (Dodgers are 3rd best offense bases empty, 5th worst RISP. -- part of this is dodgers 6-9 hitters suck, but kemp and ethier haven't been playing up to par either). Texas is the same with top 10 and bottom 10. to roudn out the group that's due for a correction in runs. Cardinals should regress as their splits are the opposite of the aforementioned three teams (#1 risp, #28 bases empty)
I'm going to the cubs game today, so i might not be able to catch lineups for the late games, but i'll keep the o4.5 on my radar, thanks for the tip.
With regards to the books, I have a pretty decent sized br at both 5d and heritage. i deposited via w**u** and had no issues get payments from both. While it's not the same as playing at slow moving books, lines at either one usually are within a few pennies of rec books from what i see.Comment -
Bored at work, here's where i'm comign from
w/ regards to KC, butler Perez and frenchy are the only three on that KC team that have historically hit LHP. Moose, Hosmer, Alcides, and getz are all well below average against them. Hosmer will probably sit so Butler can play today and LU might look like this
1. Alex Gordon (L) LF
2. Alcides Escobar (R) SS
3. Billy Butler (R) 1B
4. Salvador Perez (R) C
5. Jeff Francoeur (R) RF
6. Mike Moustakas (L) 3B
7. Lorenzo Cain (R) CF
9. Elliot Johnson (S) 2B
That's a pretty good 3-5, but they're facing a good SP, so they shouldn't be as productive as you'd expect against Medlen (3.5 ERA) lhp.
The braves are a top 10 hitting team facing a 4.2 ERA pitcher in guthrie. he's capable of getting lucky and posting a 4era for a season, but all peripherals point to 4.2 -> 4.75. Even though KC's bullpen is good, ATL's is off the chart, so a slight advantage there. All this pretty much points to Atlanta winning in my eyes (as they have the advantage in every category -- and Home field advantage).
I think the ML is pretty fair, but the way the braves are hitting, they could easily put up a decent amount of runs against Guthrie and cover -1.5. Bullpens should keep this game from getting out of hand, so i can understand the under that i've seen around, but not enough to make a play on it.Comment -
Added:
Laa FF -125 ~ 1uComment -
Thanks for the feedback, Ex. BOL tonight. Looks like it's going to be a light night for me given I missed most of the good numbers I was seeking, which stinks because I really wanted to rebound from Monday. But chasing always gets me in trouble, so I'm going to do my best to stay on the sidelines for the most part other than the plays I already posted.Comment -
low 40s i think and no rain. whatever teh stadium in minny is called affects LHB more than RHB and LAA is almost all righty FWIW. still 6% below league average for HR's by RHB, but 10ish% below for LHB. otherwise park factor looks about average there.Comment -
Medlen is a RHP and not a LHP... only 0.5u, but not sure if i'm going to let this bet go through. I wouldn't tail Atl -1.5, thoughComment -
While I generally stay away from MLB big favorites for obvious reasons, don't talk yourself out of it. You're a smart guy and its only .5 units. Braves are overvalued but its one game.Comment -
Afraid of watching myself get buried today. Heading out to wrigley to hopefully watch Travis Wood get lit up.
A few late additions:
Mia TTo3.5 +115 ~ 0.4u
Lad -1.5 +130 ~ 0.5u
GL to everyone else tonightComment -
positive day if Laa / Lad / or Phi TTu3.5 cash. need one more win to be positive. I'll beplaying Atl, Mil, and/or Chc under, + Miami over tomorrow. Taking the night off capping and i'll get to it in the AM. HOpe everyone has a profitable nightComment -
Card looks pretty sharp today. Here's all I could find.
4/18
KC @ Atl u7.5 -116 ~ 1u
Houston +167 ~ 0.75u
Was @ Mia o7.5 +110 ~ 0.5u
SF @ Mil u8.5 -105 ~ 0.5uComment -
You might get credit for Philly/ Cincy game. Call the book. That is one advantage to working with a local. Nice calls on the totals yesterday. Good luck.Comment -
thanks Ib, i'll give them a call and see what they say. Any plays for you today? Nice hit on the LAA over yesterday. nothing like a few 9th inning runs to end your nightComment