Rays have left the bases loaded 3 times today... 
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Waiting for a better line in the toronto game. Besides that, this is my final card
4/7
Oak @ Hou u8 -115 ~ 0.3u
Oak -151 ~ 0.5u
Ari -104 ~ 0.5u
Ari -105 ~ 0.3u
Ari -1.5 +165 ~ 0.5u
Stl +120 ~ 0.5u
Det TTo4 -105 ~ 0.4u
Phi -114 ~ 0.5u
Chc FF +125 ~ 0.5u
Cle @ TB u7 -120 ~ 0.5u
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Final card... added Tor and Pit
4/7
Oak @ Hou u8 -115 ~ 0.3u
Oak -151 ~ 0.5u
Ari -104 ~ 0.5u
Ari -105 ~ 0.3u
Ari -1.5 +165 ~ 0.5u
Stl +120 ~ 0.5u
Det TTo4 -105 ~ 0.4u
Phi -114 ~ 0.5u
Chc FF +125 ~ 0.5u
Cle @ TB u7 -120 ~ 0.5u
Tor -117 ~ 0.5u
Pit +136 ~ 0.5u
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Good luck EX, I'm on Det TT over 4. I hope you sweep.Comment -
Who needs Marmol? samardzija blows his own 5th inning lead and the cubs have blown two straight games for meComment -
That walk to the pitcher in the Cub's game in the 5th sucked. I'm on Arizona ML and RRL, Pitt and Cards with you. Let's finish strong.Comment -
Yesterday went 3-7 -1.62uComment -
4/8
Bal @ Bos - I like Buchholz this year, but -150 is a bit too much to lay
Nyy @ Cle - I wouldn't mind fading Ubaldo, but Kuroda told media that he won't be 100%. probably pass unless I get a better read for how hurt kuroda is
Min @ KC - Royals should be without Holland and Herrera today after back to back outings. Ervin and Correia is probably an even SP matchup with 4.5 ERAs. Hitters are close enough that this should be a tossup. Line looks to be going up for minny, but I don't see any reason it should continue in said pattern. I'm going to jump on it now. Min +133 ~ 0.5u***
Cin @ StL - Pitching might be a tad in the reds favor, hitters a tad in favor of the Cardinals after accounting for L/R SP's. Broxton probably unavailable, but that shouldn't really matter as the rest of their pen is solid and chapman can probably go an inning+ if needed after getting somewhat stretched out in spring. i'll lean STL in this game, but the line is already shaded that way, so no play.
I'll be back later for the night games
*** went to place the Twins bet and the line was up to +137 at heritage. I'm going to wait for lineups before doing anything as I want to look into what is causing this movement.
EDIT: the line dropped to +128 at 5d and +136 @ Heritage. I just booked MIN +136 for 0.5uComment -
4/8 night games
NYM @ Phi - Harvey vs halladay is a pretty good matchup. Halladay being 'hurt' is a big question mark for Philly, and for that reason I can't fathom any reason to back the phillies. Halladay gave up a boatload of runs last start, so expecting him to matchup against the likely rookie pitcher of the year with nasty stuff is asking a bit too much. Only thing to worry about here is that the phillies are throwing a bunch of lefties at Harvey, but Harvey has a decent changeup, so he should be able to deal with this. If halladay struggles, the offensive difference between the two teams shouldn't really matter. I'm gonig to continue to fade Doc until he shows some life, so i played Mets FF +101 ~ 0.5u. I'd still probably play -107 at 5dimes. Full game shouldn't be that dangerous at +odds, but I'll avoid BP's for this as even if old Doc shows up, Harvey should eb able to keep them in the game
Atl @ Mia - Maholm has really turned a corner since last year, and took yet another step forward once getting to atlanta. I usually don't lay chalk this big, but Atlanta deserves it today. Although Slowey is a FB pitcher and is still pitching in a big park, but he doesn't really strike anyone out, which is the weakness of Atlanta. I'm playing a small amount on the -1 RL. ATL -1 -131 ~ 0.3uComment -
Would be my run of luck that Atlanta gives up a run in the 9th. Wouldn't mind if kimbrel shuts the door hereComment -
Nice afternoon EX. I'm looking at Col TT over tomorrow.Comment -
Or Col FF. Houston FF might be a good buy. Brandon Maurer was less than stellar in his debut. He appeared to throw waaay too many pitches over the heart of the plate. He might get teed up by Houston's few hitters with power. Anyway my 3 locals don't have lines on these props yet so I need to wait till morning.Comment -
I like your thoughts on Colorado. I took Oak +147 and Col +143 last night before I went to sleep. Also took Miami +RL -107 and ML +165. Hoping for a few dogs to go barkin' tomorrow
Possibly playing Philly TTover4 if reasonable as well as cleveland if they get up to +120. Will check in closer to gametime as I'll be diligently working most of the dayComment -
Well that was a bit of a scare. put my entire BR at 5d on the minny/kc game to scalp with bovada and my computer froze before i could get on the other side at bovada. Thank goodness for smartphones.
well hell.... i hope Minnesota doesn't win today. I don't want all that kind of money at bovada... Crap, that wasn't worth $15Comment -
I hope you bought some Phil's TT, I went to buy some several times and pulled back, fuk. Go Rockies.Comment -
I laid of off philly like a little b!tch. I read a few scouting reports on Gee and a lot of people were really high on him breaking out. I wanted to fade him based on his velocity being down a few mph and backed off. Checking mlb today, i saw 4 or 5 of probably 20 FB's touch 90. I'll double check fangraphs later this week, but assuming no news on him and i don't read a fg/espn article on his velo being down, he's on my fade list until he proves otherwise. I'll look into other fb velo decliners this weekend when all Sp's get their second start in and see who's strugglingComment -
Put a .5 on Houston over 3 -120. I wanted -110, but couldn't find it. Regarding Gee, it's so early in the season it's better to be more conservative then drop the hammer as more data builds.Comment -
Got Min +140, closed +138 = beat closer by 2c
Got Mia ML +165, closed +160 = beat closer by 5c
Got Mia RL -107, closed -112 = beat closer by 5c
Got Oak +147, closed +136 = beat closer by 11c
Got Col +143, closed +117 = beat closer by 26c
Pretty happy with my bets today no matter how they turn out.Comment -
You guys are bickering about market efficiency and no one is telling me how sexy my Houston over bet was.Comment -
4/10
A few getaway day games. Wouldn't be shocked to see some starters rest, so I'll wait for lineups before making most of my plays today.
I guess I stated this all wrong. I was trying to say that I got really good numbers for the day.
ie best lines available all day were:
Minny +143
Mia ML +166
Mia RL -105
Oak +147
Col +144
I'll get some data and run the numbers. Post them here later today
Bandit, that call was awesome. Mauerer got destroyedComment -
Thanks Ex, I'll take the easy ones when I can. It's looking quite stormy today. The Reds, Cardinals, Mets, Phillies, Brewers, Cubs, Jays, Tigers, Rays, Rangers, Yankees, Indians, Orioles, and Red Sox all have a risk of rain or thunderstorms. None of the games appear at risk of a full rain-out, but delays could be rampant. Thread lightly.Comment -
Good point, IB. Anybody have an idea how rain affects totals? On one hand, pitchers will have a hard time locating pitches and fielders move slower on wet ground, so more runs being scored, but batters vision (and maybe contact on a wet ball) have to be affected as well, no?Comment -
NC and Terp, you got a PM. Didn't want to post the link in the forums, but there's the data to back it up. 15% ROI on away movement is pretty solid.Comment -
welp, went out and signed an apartment today. ~ a quarter mile from Wrigley. Excited for another summer around the ballpark getting home from work every day just a bit after gametimes. Anybody ever come to a game, hit me up.
That being said, I hit Atlanta @ Miami o7.5 -105 ~ 0.4u early this afternoon. Also playing Atlanta ML or RL, havent decided which. I know Miami is trying to avoid the home sweep (so this is already likely to lose), but I'm not laying off of Minor. Guy added a changeup last year and now that he has 3 legit pitches, he will be a stud. in all honesty, I wouldn't mind minor getting lit up so he'll be underpriced against the royals next week. That and the Braves are cruisingComment -
Added Atl for 0.5uComment -
Good luck EX, I'm laying off today, looking at Cubs game tomorrow.Comment
