Mebaran's 2013 MLB Hangout

[italianbandit]

Nice call regardless.

[EXhoosier10]

6/18 leans
Tex -165... May back off this, but a warm night in Arlington shouldn't be a good thing for Parker, even without the wind tunnel. Something like 6 of Parker's last 8 starts have been in O.Co, so I'm not quite buying into his recent bounceback. Another thing is Texas's offense has been struggling up until last night.
SD +137... Another one i may back off of, but SF bats should regress soon with a weak lineup. Cashner isn't as great against a slap hitting team, but he still should be able to hold his own.

Once my spreadsheet stops crashing i'll throw some more out here

[EXhoosier10]

Can't pull the trigger on Texas tonight. I hate laying -175, especially against a good team in oakland.

[EXhoosier10]

6/18
Mil @ Hou u8 -105 ~ 2u

[EXhoosier10]

6/18
Mil @ Hou u8 -105 ~ 2u

I knew I should have played Astros TTo9! Tough to predict a 10 spot :-/

[EXhoosier10]

YTD: 110-104-12 +6.2u

Model doesn't pull in rookie pitchers, so missed the marlins game last night. I don't think it's worth +135 anymore. Probably will end up passing on the rest of the card as i'll be running around all night before my flight tomorrow. I've been pretty much useless ofr the last month anyway, so i'll probably just throw the random opinons in threads of others while i'm gone and let this one gather some dust until august.

Here's to a profitable month+ to everyone and see y'all in August.

[italianbandit]

YTD: 110-104-12 +6.2u

Model doesn't pull in rookie pitchers, so missed the marlins game last night. I don't think it's worth +135 anymore. Probably will end up passing on the rest of the card as i'll be running around all night before my flight tomorrow. I've been pretty much useless ofr the last month anyway, so i'll probably just throw the random opinons in threads of others while i'm gone and let this one gather some dust until august.

Here's to a profitable month+ to everyone and see y'all in August.

Safe travels, always a pleasure to read your opinions. I never got to rewrite my comment that didn't save, but to put it simply my research and experience has found team and player regression to be much more trustworthy that hot streaks. As you said injuries are a big part of it, but keep in mind there is a wide spectrum of musculoskeletal, and mental emotional dysfunction. The trick is to find it below the market's radar like anything else.

[italianbandit]

Wed
Under TeX/Oak 9.5 +100

Bank and Biff approved.

[EXhoosier10]

Just going to throw these out to look back on at the end of the season. Who I think will win, and who I would bet based on current odds.

AL EAST
Win: Tampa Bay +300
Best Value: Tampa Bay +300

AL CENTRAL
Win: Detroit -250
Best Value: Kansas City +800

AL WEST
Win: LA Angels -145
Best Value: LA Angels -145

NL EAST
Win: Washington -120
Best Value: Washington -120, although i'm really tempted to take Atlanta +240

NL CENTRAL
Win: Cincinnati -120
Best Value: St. Louis +250 :: Can Matheny & Yadi carry on the LaRussa / Duncan legacy of useless starting pitchers becoming stars? I say yes.

NL WEST
Win: LA Dodgers -115
Best Value: LA Dodgers -115

I haven't made any plays on these or any other futures for that matter. Just throwing these out there

Going through this thread... some solid picks in this list.

[EXhoosier10]

futures

toronto under 88.5 wins @ -105 ~ 1u
atlanta under 87.5 wins @ -105 ~ 1u
houston over 59.5 wins @ +105 ~ 1u
st. Louis over 86.5 wins @ 105 ~ 0.5u

st. Louis cardinals win nl central @ +255 ~ 0.5u

3-2 +0.75 roi = 18.3%

[No coincidences]

Going through this thread... some solid picks in this list.

Really pathetic that the Reds were -120 to win the Central and finished the way that they did.

They really need to go in a different direction with the guy calling the shots from the dugout.

[EXhoosier10]

Really pathetic that the Reds were -120 to win the Central and finished the way that they did.

They really need to go in a different direction with the guy calling the shots from the dugout.

If you dont' look at his RBI total, Phillips put up about arguably the worst year of his career. worst SB, AVG, OBP, wOBA, wRC+, HR, 2B, WAR, K%, almost BB%.

Frazier took a step back, Cozart hit .250 from the #2 spot all year. Outside of Choo/Votto/Bruce, that offense wasn't pretty poor for a contender. Ended up being worst of all 10 playoff teams. Latos/Baily/Cingrani/(and magically)Mike Leake carried them a long way.