Mebaran's 2013 MLB Hangout

[mebaran]

I know it's conference championship Sunday for the NFL....but I figured I'd start this thread now as pitchers and catchers report in mere weeks.

Same deal as last year...anyone who wishes to drop in and offer advice, lineup postings, questions, picks of their own...you are all welcome. I will be posting my picks just like last year, except I will be employing some different bet size strategies. Last year I was mainly betting 1 unit per play minus a few plays at two units when I thought there was some really good value. This year my bets will probably be all over the place.

2012 record (stopped betting in May I think?) Overall: 68-64-8, +6.71 units

This year I will start with a hypothetical $10,000 bankroll, and will post the dollar amount I have risked on each play. If you decide to hop on, just do the conversion for an estimate of what you would bet in the same situation. For example:

If your ACTUAL bankroll was $2000 and I have a play listed as risking $100, your play would be (($2000/$10000)*$100)...or $20 risked.

Hopefully I'll keep posting plays the entire year, but it is hard with a full-time job to get them out in a reasonable time. At any rate, I will always at least drop by and give leans if I don't have formal plays posted.

to a great MLB season, and suck it Cardinals!

[mebaran]

Alright, I'm going to post some plays I just made. These are all player props. Again, My bankroll for this season is $10,000, so size your bets accordingly if you decide to follow:

A PUJOLS MOST BASE HITS (A PUJOLS MOST BASE HITS vrs J VOTTO MOST BASE HITS) +3				-140			$70.00	$50.00
E HOSMER MOST BASE HITS (E HOSMER MOST BASE HITS vrs A GONZALEZ MOST BASE HITS) +20.5				-120			$60.00	$50.00
A RIZZO MOST BASE HITS (B BUTLER MOST BASE HITS vrs A RIZZO MOST BASE HITS) +20.5				-120			$60.00	$50.00
M TROUT MOST HOME RUNS (B HARPER MOST HOME RUNS vrs M TROUT MOST HOME RUNS) -2.5				100			$50.00	$50.00
A PUJOLS MOST HOME RUNS (A PUJOLS MOST HOME RUNS vrs J VOTTO MOST HOME RUNS) -2				-140			$70.00	$50.00
P GOLDSCHMIDT MOST HOME RUNS (P FIELDER MOST HOME RUNS vrs P GOLDSCHMIDT MOST HOME RUNS) +8.5				-120			$60.00	$50.00
M TEIXEIRA MOST HOME RUNS (M TEIXEIRA MOST HOME RUNS vrs I DAVIS MOST HOME RUNS) +1				-125			$62.5	$50.00
A RIZZO MOST HOME RUNS (E HOSMER MOST HOME RUNS vrs A RIZZO MOST HOME RUNS) +1				-140			$70.00	$50.00
M TROUT MOST RBIS (B HARPER MOST RBIS vrs M TROUT MOST RBIS) +10.5				-150			$75.00	$50.00
A GONZALEZ MOST RBIS (P FIELDER MOST RBIS vrs A GONZALEZ MOST RBIS) +10.5				-120			$60.00	$50.00
B BUTLER MOST RBIS (B BUTLER MOST RBIS vrs J VOTTO MOST RBIS) +2.5				100			$50.00	$50.00
P GOLDSCHMIDT MOST RBIS (P KONERKO MOST RBIS vrs P GOLDSCHMIDT MOST RBIS) -3.5				100			$50.00	$50.00
M TROUT MOST RUNS SCORED (B HARPER MOST RUNS SCORED vrs M TROUT MOST RUNS SCORED) -10.5				-245			$61.30	$25.00
B POSEY MOST RUNS SCORED (E ENCARNACION MOST RUNS SCORED vrs B POSEY MOST RUNS SCORED) +6.5				-120			$60.00	$50.00

[mebaran]

So...$858.80 of my bankroll is now tied up in player futures, so remaining bankroll for the season is $9141.20. However, when I release plays throughout the season, I won't be including these futures in my running total. I will add/subtract them out once they are graded.

So as of now, active bankroll is still $10,000 ($858.80 of which is pending)

[EXhoosier10]

meb, some of these look pretty interesting. I think Ilike the Hosmer bet before looking at actual numbers. Not sure about the rest, will check them out later.

What book did you play these at?

[mebaran]

meb, some of these look pretty interesting. I think Ilike the Hosmer bet before looking at actual numbers. Not sure about the rest, will check them out later.

What book did you play these at?

Bookmaker has them up. $250 limits on player futures

[mebaran]

None of the above player futures have moved against me, and 6 have moved my direction. Happy with the initial movement.

I usually don't bet many futures due to the opportunity cost of having that money tied up for the entire season, but were trying some new things this year.

[mebaran]

Update: 7 of the 14 player futures have moved with me, the others are unchanged. Sweeet!Also, the finishing tweaks in my money line model have been made. I will now be able to make quicker changes to lineups and will have a ton of automation this year. As such, I'll be able to experiment more with totals than I did last year (which I just quit after a few weeks of clearly poor forecasting). Along with that, I'll be dipping my feet into mlb game props like score in 1st inning, etc.Five weeks until opening day. Stay tuned.

[mebaran]

Alright, so right at the last minute today, I decided I'll be releasing plays for Spring Training games FOR FUN ONLY! I am not playing any of these, they are just run through my regular season model and treated as regular season games. This is an exercise in automation and tweaking my model to make it faster and easier to run for me, but also a way to get familiar with this year's MLB rosters, possible lineups each manager likes, etc, etc.

Without further ado, here are my first two preseason plays:

Red +100
Padres +105

[mebaran]

1-1, +0.05 units

Again, these spring training plays are just a test run/ for fun

[mebaran]

Spring Training plays for tomorrow, 2/23:

These are for games in which I could find both starting lineups. Some games tomorrow only have one lineup posted...and as these aren't really for money...I'm not looking to put in too much effort.

Enjoy.

Mets +100

Phillies -135

White Sox +115

Rockies +110

[mebaran]

Today went 3-1, +1.90 units

Overall Spring Training: 4-2, +1.90 units

[EXhoosier10]

meb, you can ignore my PM. Went through my email history and already had an account. Sorry dude

[mebaran]

Oops. Sent you one back before I checked here. You can disregard MY message...lol. Thanks anyways

[EXhoosier10]

First real action of the year....

Baltimore -110

[mebaran]

Plays for today:

Orioles -120
Cubs +105
White Sox +115
A's -125
Rockies -115

Possibly a play on TOR....but have a feeling they will open up a bit too pricey. We'll wait and see.

[mebaran]

First real action of the year....

Baltimore -110

Nice, where'd you play it at? (I need to get a 5Dimes account up and running....FAST)

[mebaran]

Well...I need to go to sleep...been up for way too long.

Fwiw, I'd put a play on Toronto if I could get them any better than -140 :

[EXhoosier10]

Nice, where'd you play it at? (I need to get a 5Dimes account up and running....FAST)

5dimes reduced juice. They have 10 cent lines right now, not sure if it's any better the night before like it is during the regular season.


Did a quick run through of player props based on different projection systems (Steamer, ZiPs, Oliver, ESPN, CBS) and these stand out the most at first glance.

M CABRERA MOST BASE HITS
-13½-130
-
D WRIGHT MOST BASE HITS
+13½-110

and

E LONGORIA MOST RBIS
-2½-120
-
-
D FREESE MOST RBIS
+2½-120

[mebaran]

Today went 2-2-1, -0.25 units

Overall: 6-4-1, +1.65 units

[mebaran]

Plays for today, 2/26, are:

Pirates -130

Braves -120

Marlins -115

Reds -105

[EXhoosier10]

I'm just going to start calling everything as 1u / 0.5u, but everything is 1/4 and 1/8u.

YTD: 1-0 +1

2/26
Pit -117 1u (entire starting 8 hitting today. pitching is iffy though)
Min +130 .5u

leaning miami once i see bullpens. Cincy also is close if i get to +115
still half the card to look at once more info posted

[mebaran]

Wish the Hou/Det line was out earlier...was leaning Houston. Oh well.

Today's plays went 2-1-1, +0.95u

overall: 8-5-2, +2.60u

[mebaran]

Two early plays before I get to more of the lineup cards...I realize they are pretty highly juiced...and it kills me because it's only spring training, so there's a lot of randomness involved...but here they are anyways:

Blue Jays -160

Tigers -140

[mebaran]

adding:

Cubs -110

[mebaran]

Last two:

Giants +110 ---- 1.5u risked
Mariners +105

[mebaran]

I also, unofficially, am leaning on the Yankees and the Athletics as two other plays.

[StevenSuarez]

Two early plays before I get to more of the lineup cards...I realize they are pretty highly juiced...and it kills me because it's only spring training, so there's a lot of randomness involved...but here they are anyways:

Blue Jays -160

Tigers -140

I'm in the same boat. A lot of juice, but the mismatches in the lineups are making me a lot more comfortable with it.

[EXhoosier10]

I'm just going to start calling everything as 1u / 0.5u, but everything is 1/4 and 1/8u.

YTD: 2-0 +1.65

2/26
Pit -117 1u (entire starting 8 hitting today. pitching is iffy though)
Min +130 .5u

2/27
Seattle +108 1u
San Francisco +108 1u
Detroit -123 .75u
Cincinnati +110 .5u
Washington -136 .5u

[mebaran]

Butt raped today! 1-3-1, -3.05u

Overall: 9-8-3, -0.45u

[EXhoosier10]

2/27
Seattle +108 1u
San Francisco +108 1u
Detroit -123 .75u
Cincinnati +110 .5u
Washington -136 .5u

Yesterday 2-1-2 +.0275
YTD 4-1-2 +1.6775

2/28
TB -118 .75u
SF -118 1u
KC +100 1u

[mebaran]

Will most likely have plays tomorrow. I only got 3 hours of sleep yesterday. 65+ hour work week plus running some baseball numbers here and there wears me out. Come Friday, I just want to get drunk and fall asleep

[mebaran]

Plays for today, so far:

Phillies +110 (1.5u risked)

Mets EV

Rangers EV

[EXhoosier10]

Yesterday 1-0-2 -1.065
YTD 5-1-4 +0.6125

3/1
Philadelphia +108 1.25u

[mebaran]

3/1
Philadelphia +108 1.25u

[EXhoosier10]

That philly line is just so far off. I believe this is the second time i've felt this way in a yankees game. I wonder if it has somethign to do with NY homers being degenerates