Mebaran's 2013 MLB Hangout

[italianbandit]

I'm also having a problem as my local stopped using 5 dimes and the books I have now are using .20 cent lines.

[EXhoosier10]

I'm also having a problem as my local stopped using 5 dimes and the books I have now are using .20 cent lines.

I'm looking for a local in Chicago that uses 5dimes lines. I can't find any, though. I'm at the point where I'm kind of scared to put too much more money online, but there's no way I'm playing 20 cent lines for an entire season

[EXhoosier10]

April 1

Cardinals +103 ~ 0.5u
Phillies +114 ~ 0.5u
Royals +132 ~ 0.5u

Adding one last play
Cubs +120 ~ 0.5u

Like I mentioned elsewhere, Cubs ML is a heart attack waiting to happen in the late innings. I was really hoping Marmol could do well and be traded, but now he may just be a drag in the Cubs 'pen.

Either way, got the first win out of the way.

1-0 +0.6u

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Wish I would have pulled the trigger on the Phillies last night...somehow thought I might get a better number today

Way to be smarter.

[mebaran]

Today went 2-2-1, -$160.70

[mebaran]

Having trouble with timing when I can get to my model to create picks...I want to catch openers as soon as I can, but I work nights...so it's becoming an issue already. I think my best bet is to wake up before the noon games to catch the game props, and then go back to bed and wake up around 3 to catch the openers. Will have my first moneyline plays out tomorrow afternoon for the following day's games.

[EXhoosier10]

0-3 on night games. Oh well.

YTD:
1-3 = -0.9u

[EXhoosier10]

4/2
STL +111 ~ 0.5u
Cle +175 ~ 0.25u

That'll be all on today's card.

[EXhoosier10]

4/3
Jumping on ATL early. I'm expecting lots of people to be fading Halladay after his ST injury rumors/poor stats
ATL -118 ~ 0.5u

[EXhoosier10]

4/2
stl +111 ~ 0.5u
cle +175 ~ 0.25u

that'll be all on today's card.

4/2 --- 2-0 +0.9925
ytd --- 3-3 +.0925

[EXhoosier10]

4/3
Jumping on ATL early. I'm expecting lots of people to be fading Halladay after his ST injury rumors/poor stats
ATL -118 ~ 0.5u

4/3
ATL -118 ~ 0.5u
ARI -115 ~ 0.5u

Leaning Cubs, Tor -1.5, Mets, and possibly seattle should the line get to the 145 range

[EXhoosier10]

4/3
ATL -118 ~ 0.5u
ARI -115 ~ 0.5u

Leaning Cubs, Tor -1.5, Mets, and possibly seattle should the line get to the 145 range

4/3
ATL -118 ~ 0.5u
ARI -144 ~ 0.1u
TOR -1RL -128 ~0.5u

edit: Ate a bunch of juice and bought down my arizona bet. Completely misread who was pitching for STL

[italianbandit]

Nice night EX, you know Ariz is going to win now

[EXhoosier10]

Nice night EX, you know Ariz is going to win now

buddy of mine played little league with lance lynn and said he was a pretty obnoxious kid and didn't care for him much. Only leaving the .1u on it to make him happy. the juice to buy down is killer

[EXhoosier10]

4/3
ATL -118 ~ 0.5u
ARI -144 ~ 0.1u
TOR -1RL -128 ~0.5u

edit: Ate a bunch of juice and bought down my arizona bet. Completely misread who was pitching for STL

4/3
ATL -118 ~ 0.5u
ARI -144 ~ 0.1u
TOR -1RL -128 ~0.5u
adding:
Cubs +128 ~ 0.3u
Mets TT o3.5 -115 ~ 0.5u

[italianbandit]

Good luck EX, was going to suggest Mets TT in other thread, good buy. I hope you sweep.

[EXhoosier10]

Good luck EX, was going to suggest Mets TT in other thread, good buy. I hope you sweep.

thanks italian. Richard is an awful pitcher outside of Petco; xFIP's of 4.5+ in each of the past 3 years.

[mebaran]

These props at Bkmkr have no value. Looks like I need another out for those. It continues to be a struggle to get picks out...I might have to reneg on my initial plan and try something else. Weekend picks will happen as I have down time, but working 75 hours during the week makes it nearly impossible to get this done. Sorry guys...

[EXhoosier10]

These props at Bkmkr have no value. Looks like I need another out for those. It continues to be a struggle to get picks out...I might have to reneg on my initial plan and try something else. Weekend picks will happen as I have down time, but working 75 hours during the week makes it nearly impossible to get this done. Sorry guys...

sucks, meb. and i agree that a lot of shops that have 30c juice on props are tough to beat. are you a trader that you're working nights?

[EXhoosier10]

4/3
ATL -118 ~ 0.5u
ARI -144 ~ 0.1u
TOR -1RL -128 ~0.5u
adding:
Cubs +128 ~ 0.3u
Mets TT o3.5 -115 ~ 0.5u

4/3 ~ 3-2 +0.16
YTD ~ 6-5 +0.2525

4/4
LAA +111 ~ 0.5u
LAA @ Cin o9 +108 ~ 0.5u
Sea +140 ~ 0.4u

maybe a few more more totals coming out, but that's probably it for sides.

[EXhoosier10]

4/3 ~ 3-2 +0.16
YTD ~ 6-5 +0.2525

4/4
LAA +111 ~ 0.5u
LAA @ Cin o9 +108 ~ 0.5u
Sea +140 ~ 0.4u

maybe a few more more totals coming out, but that's probably it for sides.

4/4: 0-2-1 -0.9u
YTD: 6-7-1 -0.6575u

[EXhoosier10]

4/5
probably going to sit today out. a bunch of #4/#5 starters with no in-season data to work with is going to be pretty tough for me to 'cap.

Something of note, the STL/SF line has been going pretty haywire IMO. Westbrook is the better SP and SF is Belt not at 100% doesn't help yet the line has moved 10c+ already, in my view, the wrong direction.

[italianbandit]

I agree on the SF game, however it's a big day at the park with ceremonies, and World Series celebrations. If it wasn't for that I would be all over St. Louis. Perception on Zito is also high right now. I believe he regresses this year.

[mebaran]

sucks, meb. and i agree that a lot of shops that have 30c juice on props are tough to beat. are you a trader that you're working nights?

YUP, missed the boat on these props when they were still super juicy. And yes, I'm in fixed income and have been trading overnight. 16 hours of sleep during the workweek is not uncommon.

[mebaran]

Today went 2-2-1, -$160.70

Fixing record, and bringing it forward_____>

YTD: 1-3-1, -$160.70
Bankroll: $8981.30 (pending beginning of the year player props...)

[mebaran]

Plays for tomorrow, 4/6:

Bet	Line	Risk	To Win
CIN	-105	$125.00	$119.05
BOS	130	$85.00	$110.50
LAA	110	$85.00	$93.50
MIN	130	$100.00	$130.00
OAK	-140	$300.00	$214.29
CLE	155	$175.00	$271.25
MIA	150	$125.00	$187.50
CHC	145	$250.00	$362.50
SD	135	$110.00	$148.50

[mebaran]

<---putting on some sleep shades for the next 13 hours or so (no joke).

Wake me up when the Cubs are in 1st place, ok? GOOD LUCK, ALL!

[EXhoosier10]

4/6
Nym TT o3.5 -125 ~ 0.5u
KC TT u3.5 +100 ~ 0.4u
KC @ Phi u8.5 +100 ~ 0.25u
Oak @ Hou u8 +100 ~ 0.5u
Cle @ TB o8 +101 ~ 0.6u

[italianbandit]

I'm on the Mets over, just found a -115. Good luck today. I'm looking at the Houston under as wel.

[italianbandit]

Nice buy on Phi under.

[EXhoosier10]

I'm on the Mets over, just found a -115. Good luck today. I'm looking at the Houston under as wel.

Thanks. Both plays are plays on the umpires. I would have liked a strikeout pitcher facing off against houston with a big strike zone to boot, but colon will suffice i suppose getting even odds.

[italianbandit]

no offense to you Meb, just saw you were on Miami.

[EXhoosier10]

[ATTACH]55582[/ATTACH]

[EXhoosier10]

4/6
Nym TT o3.5 -125 ~ 0.5u
KC TT u3.5 +100 ~ 0.4u
KC @ Phi u8.5 +100 ~ 0.25u
Oak @ Hou u8 +100 ~ 0.5u
Cle @ TB o8 +101 ~ 0.6u

Adding:
Arizona -104 ~ 0.5u
Arizona -1.5 +165 ~ 0.5u
Braun, Aramis, Hart all sitting for milwaukee. Yuni, Khris Davis, and Jean Segura are their replacements...

[EXhoosier10]

Ran through tomorrow's card before heading out for the night. Could be the biggest card of my life if I end up playing everything.

4/7
Oak @ Hou u8 -115 ~ 0.3u
Oak -151 ~ 0.5u
Ari -104 ~ 0.5u

leans
Hou TTu3
Sea @ Chw o7 (smaller)
Cle @ TB u7
Cle TTu3
Tor -120 (waiting on Joey Bats status)
Det TTo3.5
Phi -130
Min TTo4 (max price -115)
Chc (hoping for +130)
Stl +129
Col TTo4.5 (max price -115)

That's a potential 14 plays. we'll see how lines move and get book some of these tomorrow