Mebaran's 2013 MLB Hangout

[mebaran]

Yeah, lines shades exist. To check for them, compare your line with the opener. After a chunk of season is through with, you'll see some patterns :

[mebaran]

Phillies line all the way in to -110...yikes

[EXhoosier10]

Yesterday 1-0-2 -1.065
YTD 5-1-4 +0.6125

3/1
Philadelphia +108 1.25u

adding
Oakland -117 for .5u
Mets +110 for 1u

[mebaran]

Yesterday went 2-1, +1.65u

Overall: 11-9-3, +1.20u

[EXhoosier10]

Yesterday: 2-1-0 +1.865
YTD: 7-5-1 +2.4775

3/2
Reds +110 1u
Dodgers +105 1u
Cardinals -123 .75u
Blue Jays -115 .5u

[mebaran]

For today, 3/2:

Reds EV (1.5u)
Rays -125

[mebaran]

Wanted to bet on NYY and possibly KC for the right price....no lines out at bkmkr

[mebaran]

Yesterday: 2-1-0 +1.865
YTD: 7-5-1 +2.4775

Nice job, brutha. Glad you're posting here, and it's good to see you on the same side often!

[mebaran]

Today: 1-1, -0.50u

Overall: 12-10-3, +0.70u

[EXhoosier10]

Yesterday: 1-3-0 -2.423u
YTD: 8-8-1 +0.0545u

lol thanks for the shoutout yesterday, meb. I was kind of hesitant about posting plays as I had a bad gut feeling about it. turned out to be a right on target. oh well

[EXhoosier10]

3/3

ATL - 112 1u

[mebaran]

3/4:

Phillies EV
Astros +140

[iceman8847]

M/B what's your thoughts on the Braves today looks like the Mets are sitting most of there starter and you have Hudson starting against a rookie .

[EXhoosier10]

3/3

ATL - 112 1u

Yesterday 1-0-0 +1
YTD 9-8-1 +1.0545

3/4
Cle +107 0.75u
Hou +147 1u

Leaning Atlanta, but want to watch price movement a little more before I make up my mind

[EXhoosier10]

Yesterday 1-0-0 +1
YTD 9-8-1 +1.0545

3/4
Cle +107 0.75u
Hou +147 1u

Leaning Atlanta, but want to watch price movement a little more before I make up my mind

Adding Nym -115 1u

[mebaran]

Yeah, I don't put too much credence into starting pitchers in spring training. There's just too much volatility in how long they pitch. Also, some of them are focusing on JUST mechanics, so sometimes they aren't even worried about base runners, pitching around guys, leaving meatballs up in the zone, etc, etc.

[mebaran]

1-1, +0.00u

Overall: 13-11-3, +0.70u

[EXhoosier10]

Yesterday: 2-1 +0.8025
YTD: 11-9-1 +1.857

3/5
TB -110 1u
Lad -105.5 (split between -103 and -108) .5u

[mebaran]

Will probably hold off on spring training plays save for the really good ones. I'm happy with the way my model is performing, and have worked out a few kinks as far as getting data in and out cleanly. So expect some spring training plays on Friday-Sunday when I have more time to churn them out, with some random plays in between.

On schedule for opening day, and will start the real plays then, along with the hypothetical $10k bankroll, of which some is already in play on player props.

to anyone hard-betting spring training, there is definitely value to be had here, and my opinion of it has changed since looking at the numbers.

[EXhoosier10]

Yesterday: 1-1 +0.4725
YTD: 12-10-1 +2.3295

3/6
KC +102 1u
Phi -111 .75u
Chc +125 1u & Tex -155 .5u (lineups changed from this morning. This bet is definitely -EV)
Pit +111 .5u

[EXhoosier10]

Yesterday: 1-1 +0.4725
YTD: 12-10-1 +2.3295

3/6
KC +102 1u W
Phi -111 .75u W
Chc +125 1u & Tex -155 .5u (lineups changed from this morning. This bet is definitely -EV).... sucks, oh well. L
Pit +111 .5u W

Today: 3-1 +1.8250
YTD: 15-11-1 +4.1545

[bhssoccer89]

like the idea of playing 1st inning score. i did really well on that a couple years ago

[mebaran]

like the idea of playing 1st inning score. i did really well on that a couple years ago

Played with it a few seasons ago, but I'm going to try and attack it seriously this year.

[mebaran]

Today: 3-1 +1.8250
YTD: 15-11-1 +4.1545

<---EXhoosier10

[EXhoosier10]

<---EXhoosier10

Thanks meb. I can't believe I have always thought betting ST was a bad idea. I never imagined I'd find -105/-105 games when starters play a team's AAA squad.

[EXhoosier10]

Yesterday: 3-1 +1.8250
YTD: 15-11-1 +4.1545

3/7
Texas +105 .5u
.....Wanted to wait until a little closer to gametime to put the additional .5u here after yesterday's debacle of changing the entire lineup an hour befre gametime. Line has since moved to -105. I probably won't put anything more down if I have to pay more than that.
Yankees +111 1u

Waiting on the Arizona and Detroit games

[mebaran]

A few plays for today:

Pirates -110
Rangers -112 (2 units!)
White Sox EV

Leans on:

Twins over Red Sox
Royals over Mariners
Phillies over Twins

[mebaran]

Yeah, I think LAD are fielding their farm team today...

[EXhoosier10]

Yesterday: 3-1 +1.8250
YTD: 15-11-1 +4.1545

3/7
Texas +105 .5u
.....Wanted to wait until a little closer to gametime to put the additional .5u here after yesterday's debacle of changing the entire lineup an hour befre gametime. Line has since moved to -105. I probably won't put anything more down if I have to pay more than that.
Yankees +111 1u

Waiting on the Arizona and Detroit games

Adding Arizona +102 1.25u

[pm4e]

EXhoosier, I figured you'd be on Arizona also. It looks like there's some overlap between what you and I are looking at. GL to you.

[mebaran]

Today went 1-1-1, -0.10u

Overall, 14-12-4, +0.60u

[EXhoosier10]

Wow...
Yankees blew a 2 run lead in the bottom of the 9th to lose by 1.
Texas blew a 3 run lead in the 7th, then a 2 run lead in the 9th to tie.
Arizona gave up a 1 run lead in the bottom of the 8th to lose by 1.

Glad this wasn't regular season where I'm actually watching these games as I would have been pretty miserable seeing 3 meltdowns in a few hour span.

[mebaran]

Variance...is a cold-hearted b*tch

[EXhoosier10]

Yesterday: 0-2-1 -2.25u
YTD: 15-13-2 +1.9045

3/8
mets will be a play. waiting on line to move off of +140

no other noon games, waiting on later games

[EXhoosier10]

Getting back in the swing of things still... Why I thought that line would continue to move after going up all morning, I have no idea.
1u NYM +137