Mebaran's 2013 MLB Hangout

[EXhoosier10]

4/25
Lad -115 ~ 1.75u
Nyy -140 ~ 1.5u

Adding:
Tex @ Min u8.5 +100 ~ 1u

[EXhoosier10]

4/25
Lad -115 ~ 1.75u
Nyy -140 ~ 1.5u
Tex @ Min u8.5 +100 ~ 1u

Adding:
Phi -161 ~ 1.25u

[EXhoosier10]

4/25
Lad -115 ~ 1.75u
Nyy -140 ~ 1.5u
Tex @ Min u8.5 +100 ~ 1u
Phi -161 ~ 1.25u

Adding:
TB +119 ~ 1u

This should be all until umps come out for night games. everybody

[EXhoosier10]

Not sure why Cliff lee is still in this game? is the pen that useless?

[No coincidences]

Not sure why Cliff lee is still in this game? is the pen that useless?

Charlie Manuel is fvcking clueless.

I'm having flashbacks, Ex. You know what I'm talking about.

[zilchy]

They wanted him to finish that inning and put in a pinch hitter for him. But come on when he's done, he's done and you yank him. You can see those runs coming a mile away. Stupidity and inflexibility of these managers is a continuing source of frustration.

[EXhoosier10]

Fastball down the middle to Ike and dodgers are in a 1 run game now. Bullpen failures are finally starting to bite me

[italianbandit]

Fastball down the middle to Ike and dodgers are in a 1 run game now. Bullpen failures are finally starting to bite me

Nah, you have the IB cloak of protection on that game.
Sorry about Phils.

[italianbandit]

Here's lg avg numbers from 1999-2002 taken from The Book. I guess it's somewhat outdated, but the trends i imagine would still be applicable today. Each time through the order takes about 30-35 pitches, on average.
[ATTACH]56206[/ATTACH]

So it looks like Sale is elite first time or two through the order and average 2h of his starts. I wonder how much that has to do with that being his first season as a starter and not fully grasping how well hitters adjust through a game. Do you mind me asking where you got this data? I wouldn't mind looking through more of it when I get the chance

Just saw this, busy at work, give me some time.

[EXhoosier10]

Only lost a little over 0.25u in the afternoon. Felt like a much worse afternoon.

[EXhoosier10]

4/25 Night time additions:
Tor @ Nyy o8 +105 ~ 1.25u

Lean:
Col @ Ari u9 probably 1u. No idea why that line is so high

[italianbandit]

I had Humber circled after a bunch of research, but didn't have time to complete it. Boston TT over was easy today, should have had it.

[italianbandit]

Angels over 4 -105, 1 unit.

[EXhoosier10]

I had Humber circled after a bunch of research, but didn't have time to complete it. Boston TT over was easy today, should have had it.

I looked at it, and it was o/u 5 with the over juiced to -135. I won't ever bet a team to score 6 runs at - odds no matter who's pitching.

[EXhoosier10]

4/25 Night time additions:
Tor @ Nyy o8 +105 ~ 1.25u

Lean:
Col @ Ari u9 probably 1u. No idea why that line is so high

Adding:
Col @ Ari u8.5 ~ .3u
Col @ Ari FF u4.5 ~ .8u
Ari TTu4.5 -120 ~ .25u
Laa TTo4 -105 ~ .5u
Laa -124 ~ 1.5u

[italianbandit]

I looked at it, and it was o/u 5 with the over juiced to -135. I won't ever bet a team to score 6 runs at - odds no matter who's pitching.

OK, I would have passed too.

[EXhoosier10]

4/26 leans
Pit +170 but most likely TTo3 or 3.5. Received an email a few weeks ago that I had sent in February to fade Lynn against a good left handed offense. I ahve to look into the #'s to make sure he hasn't changed his repertoire, but that's the lean.
Cle +150 or TTo3.5
Maybe Texas. I wanted Min +130 or +140, but not sure about +105
San Diego? I like Cashner and wouldn't mind fading Timmy. +105 is pretty low for a 'value' play
Seattle + 140

Nothing particularly stands out to me. I'm heading up to milwaukee tomorrow and i'm pretty sure my client blocks SBR, so probably won't post until closer to gametimes. Good luck to everyone tonight

[italianbandit]

Looking at Texas too.

[italianbandit]

Still like SD at that price.

[italianbandit]

4/26 leans
Pit +170 but most likely TTo3 or 3.5.

Someone needs to stick a fork in Sanchez, I don't like Pitt here. Maybe last 4 innings. I would steer towards TT over.

[No coincidences]

I'm with you guys re: SD and Cashner.

I actually lean Minnesota if I can get the right price. I'm sure that line will go up so I'll wait.

I'd like to play Pittsburgh but I agree re: Sanchez, so the TT over would probably be the right call.

Not really sure why the Tigers are favored like they are. They should be -115 or so, not -125.

Milwaukee is interesting at that price.

I kind of like Cincy too given the price.

[No coincidences]

BTW, I tried rooting home the Angels and/or TT over for you guys tonight, but that was just brutal to watch. Stick a fork in that team.

[EXhoosier10]

4/25
Lad -115 ~ 1.75u ~~~~~ Win
Nyy -140 ~ 1.5u ~~~~~ Win
Tex @ Min u8.5 +100 ~ 1u ~~~~~ Win
Phi -161 ~ 1.25u ~~~~~ Loss
TB +119 ~ 1u ~~~~~ Loss
Tor @ Nyy o8 +105 ~ 1.25u ~~~~~ Push
Col @ Ari u8.5 ~ .3u ~~~~~ Win
Col @ Ari FF u4.5 ~ .8u ~~~~~ Win
Ari TTu4.5 -120 ~ .25u ~~~~~ Win
Laa TTo4 -105 ~ .5u ~~~~~ Loss
Laa -124 ~ 1.5u ~~~~~ Loss

4/25: 6-4-1 +0.2025u
YTD: 61-38-6 +16.9880u

I have no idea how I came out of yesterday + units. The Philly loss, Yankees total pushing, and the angels weighed pretty heavily on me at the end of the day. That being said, this is 10 of 11 days in a row being + units. I can't complain about that. I have a couple of big fanduel tournaments going tonight that I'll have to check lineups for, but unless something really sticks out in the SP v batter data, I'll probably take the day off; going to take advantage of Chicago's first 70 degree spring day.

[italianbandit]

Nice EX, keep rolling. I'm taking the day off too as me and my family are driving to Yosemite.

[No coincidences]

Have a great Friday fellas.

[EXhoosier10]

Action plays for tonight:
SD -103 ~ 1u
YES run in 1st inning +105 ~ .5u

[EXhoosier10]

Action plays for tonight:
SD -103 ~ 1u
YES run in 1st inning +105 ~ .5u

2-0 ytd +18.688u
Lucky day today

[Tanko]

Hey Dollars2donuts... Similar to your request, we'd appreciate it if you wouldn't clutter up our forum with your ads. Try a larger font next time...

[16johnnymac]

Hey Dollars2donuts... Similar to your request, we'd appreciate it if you wouldn't clutter up our forum with your ads. Try a larger font next time...

You got wrong guy he changes one # or letter to think its a common thread name

[EXhoosier10]

o8.5 Tex @ Min -110 ~ .75u
u6 Laa @ Sea +123 ~ .75u

no idea how to cap right now. Maybe i'll look again later

[EXhoosier10]

Tor +151 ~ 1.5u
o9 Tex @ Min +111 ~ 0.25u

[EXhoosier10]

Great finish to the minnesota game, and if you tell me the blue jays put up 4 against CC with Mo unavailable, I like my chances at +151; just didn't work out.

Afternoon 1-1-1 -0.75

[EXhoosier10]

4/28
PLAYS
Phillies -106 ~ 1u
Rollins & Howard are AWFUL against LHP. Being a sunday, maybe they rest one or the other and play anyone else. Niese is solid, but Hamels is still the better SP. Ruiz is back, so that's a pretty nice upgrade on the .250 OBP they've been getting from the catcher position this year. I don't see the line moving and making Hamels a dog (even with his 5.4 ERA), so I'm going to book this now.
TB -132 ~ 1.5u
Looks like Price's velocity is down, but he keeps getting results. No reason to think Axelrod can keep up his sub-4 ERA. 3 runs should be enough to win this for TB.

LEANS
Cin FF +.5 +110 -- Like Cingrani against an offense that strikes out a bunch. Detwiler is an awesome #5 starter and can hold his own. Should be under a 4 ERA all year. Holbrook is behind
Cin @ Was o7.5 --- Holbrook behind the plate, should be auto over, but really not sure if i can pull the trigger. Both pitchers solid.
SF -111 -- BOL opened -130, now down to -110's. Vogelsong has been all over the place this year, but Marquis deserves to be faded every game if the price is only -110.

I feel like there could be some value in the AL west games, but I have no idea. I just don't understand that division whatsoever. THoughts on Seattle?

[No coincidences]

Do you like the LAA/SEA under at all Ex or IB?

[EXhoosier10]

Do you like the LAA/SEA under at all Ex or IB?

I'm on it (post #380) and adding to it.

Final play of the day
Laa @ Sea u6.5 +110 ~ 0.75u

So that's
Laa @ Sea u6.5 +110 ~ 0.75u
Laa @ Sea u6 +123 ~ 0.75u