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5/7 Oak @ Cle u8.5 -112 ~ 1.5u -- potentially adding more Det FF -109 ~ 1.5u
Det -106 ~ 0.75u
Lean: TB, KC, Cin, Stl, Mia, Ari
Comment
No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#492
Originally posted by EXhoosier10
forgot to put in the actual play on the under 8.5.
I thought you meant you liked Cleveland as a side.
You just riding the hot hand with the Tigers? Anibal's inconsistency still scares me, and Zimm is becoming elite. Not sure what to think there personally.
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#493
Originally posted by No coincidences
You just riding the hot hand with the Tigers? Anibal's inconsistency still scares me, and Zimm is becoming elite. Not sure what to think there personally.
overall, i think Zimm only has a slight advantage over Anibal. IMO Tigers hitting is better enough than Washington's (as well as recent performance) that as a dog/pick, there is some value. side note --- Taking out anibal's first 4 games with Detroit, he has a 2.10 ERA over 94 innings. I liked him a lot last year and outside of those same 4 games, he did nothing but produce all year (3.3 ERA). I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say after 7 years in Miami, it took a month to get acclimated with a new team/location. Looking into his splits, I don't see anything that stands out as him being worse out of the stretch v. the windup, so he shouldn't produce worse w/ RISP. You definitely watch more of Anibal than I do, but I just don't see much in the way of anything that would cause him to be inconsistent.
Comment
No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#494
Originally posted by EXhoosier10
overall, i think Zimm only has a slight advantage over Anibal. IMO Tigers hitting is better enough than Washington's (as well as recent performance) that as a dog/pick, there is some value. side note --- Taking out anibal's first 4 games with Detroit, he has a 2.10 ERA over 94 innings. I liked him a lot last year and outside of those same 4 games, he did nothing but produce all year (3.3 ERA). I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say after 7 years in Miami, it took a month to get acclimated with a new team/location. Looking into his splits, I don't see anything that stands out as him being worse out of the stretch v. the windup, so he shouldn't produce worse w/ RISP. You definitely watch more of Anibal than I do, but I just don't see much in the way of anything that would cause him to be inconsistent.
Well, inconsistent is a relative term here, I guess, compared to the stuff that he has. He's always had the makeup of an elite pitcher, but sometimes, tends to drift. He's not inconsistent as a 3 or 4 starter, but if he's going to win 15 (which he should), he needs to take the next step mentally in bearing down and zoning in. Tonight will be a good challenge for him.
Comment
italianbandit
SBR MVP
05-17-11
2622
#495
As a team, the Nats’ 83 wRC+ is 27th overall, and over the past 14 days they have sunk even further, to a 61 wRC+ that is dead last in the game.
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#496
Originally posted by italianbandit
As a team, the Nats’ 83 wRC+ is 27th overall, and over the past 14 days they have sunk even further, to a 61 wRC+ that is dead last in the game.
Washington's TTu3.5 is -125.... I would love to play that, but Detroit's bullpen is good for a run or three in 2 innings. Would be cutting it close IMO at those odds.
Comment
No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#497
Originally posted by EXhoosier10
Washington's TTu3.5 is -125.... I would love to play that, but Detroit's bullpen is good for a run or three in 2 innings. Would be cutting it close IMO at those odds.
Their bullpen is really disappointing. You'd think a team that wants to be a serious WS contender with Dombrowski in charge would realize how important it is to not only have a decent closer, but long relief and setup guys. Benoit is OK and Smyly's filled his role nicely, but there are a lot of holes. Can't believe they've basically ignored such an important aspect of the game.
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#498
Originally posted by EXhoosier10
5/7 Oak @ Cle u8.5 -112 ~ 1.5u -- potentially adding more Det FF -109 ~ 1.5u
Det -106 ~ 0.75u
Lean: TB, KC, Cin, Stl, Mia, Ari
Adding: Stl -130 ~ 1.5u
Oak @ Cle u8.5 -115 ~ 1u (makes this play 2.5u)
Comment
italianbandit
SBR MVP
05-17-11
2622
#499
Agree on Wash's TT.
Comment
No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#500
What do you guys think of the SEA/PIT under 8? Too much juice?
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#501
Originally posted by No coincidences
What do you guys think of the SEA/PIT under 8? Too much juice?
Pitcher #'s point to an over, hitters #'s go under. Too much guesswork at who's ineptitude will shine through for me to make a play here. I reserve the right to change my mind once an ump is announced, though. An under ump could help harang nibble and call strikes when Mcdonald misses the target by 6 inches, an over ump could make harang pitch to contact and mcdonald ends up walking the world. Too much variance with these SP's to make a play w/o all information
Comment
italianbandit
SBR MVP
05-17-11
2622
#502
Interestingly, Sanchez leads the league in pitching WAR.
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#503
Adding
TB FF -135 ~ 1u
Comment
tatddy
SBR Posting Legend
03-02-10
10779
#504
Originally posted by EXhoosier10
Pitcher #'s point to an over, hitters #'s go under. Too much guesswork at who's ineptitude will shine through for me to make a play here. I reserve the right to change my mind once an ump is announced, though. An under ump could help harang nibble and call strikes when Mcdonald misses the target by 6 inches, an over ump could make harang pitch to contact and mcdonald ends up walking the world. Too much variance with these SP's to make a play w/o all information
Gomez in McDonald out. Much better price for PIT backers.
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#505
JA Happ just got drilled in the head by a line drive and is coming off. oh man that was ugly
Comment
italianbandit
SBR MVP
05-17-11
2622
#506
Col looks tempting, but I'm going to pass.
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#507
Originally posted by italianbandit
Col looks tempting, but I'm going to pass.
I never know how to play games in coors with pitchers who have never thrown there before. I didn't even bother looking at that game because of it.
I get Internet hooked up tomorrow, so I'll be more active for night games tomorrow.
Comment
Dayna619
SBR Rookie
05-07-13
7
#508
I also, unofficially, am leaning on the Yankees and the Athletics as two other plays.
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#509
Step up your game, Cardinals. You're getting beat by Travis Wood and the Cubs.
Comment
No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#510
Originally posted by EXhoosier10
Step up your game, Cardinals. You're getting beat by Travis Wood and the Cubs.
I can't figure out what's been so perplexing about Wood this year. I've watched him pitch a few times and nothing seems to be different than in the past.
BTW, nice call on that OAK/CLE under. You are the anti-me when it comes to totals -- LOL.
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#511
Originally posted by No coincidences
I can't figure out what's been so perplexing about Wood this year. I've watched him pitch a few times and nothing seems to be different than in the past.
BTW, nice call on that OAK/CLE under. You are the anti-me when it comes to totals -- LOL.
It's gotta be that nasty beard. Villanueva and wood may be on to something
Comment
italianbandit
SBR MVP
05-17-11
2622
#512
Great call on under Ex,
Comment
No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#513
Originally posted by italianbandit
Great call on under Ex,
Great cappers nail the big ones. His multi-unit plays have been money so far this year.
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#514
5/7: 2-1 +1.55
YTD: 79-54-9 +16.395u
Originally posted by No coincidences
Great cappers nail the big ones. His multi-unit plays have been money so far this year.
Thanks man. I'm hitting something like 65% on plays >1u this year. That'll come down a bit, but should hover around 60% if things stay similar to the last few years.
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#515
5/8 Tor +173 ~ 1u --- Jays bats are hot and TB's pen is in shambles. Moore usually doesn't go deep into games, so another day against Gomes/Rodney/Wright should give the jays a chance. -- Probably adding Jays TTo3 or 3.5 as well.
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#516
Leans - Mia, Det FF, maybe Chw if line moves closer to a pick, Cin @ Atl o8.5, Bal @ KC u9, Oak @ Cle u8.5, Stl @ Chc o8, Phi @ Sf u8, TB @ Tor o7.5
Probably going to wait for lineups to book any of these leans
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#517
Adding: Det FF -106 ~ 3u ---- ML opened at -119 for detroit and is now down to -106, but I'm guessing washington is the more "public" team. Wish they played the game yesterday, but I don't see any reason Detroit doesn't win FF
I might take a nibble on the Cubs TT over 3.5. Just wish I could get a -110 or -115.
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#522
Adding phi FF +0.5 -110 ~ 1u
Pettibone is a pretty decent MiLB pitcher with good control. Phillies lineup looks pretty good today against lefties and no posey for SF. Worth a play since I was leaning under to begin with
Comment
No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#523
Originally posted by EXhoosier10
Adding phi FF +0.5 -110 ~ 1u
Pettibone is a pretty decent MiLB pitcher with good control. Phillies lineup looks pretty good today against lefties and no posey for SF. Worth a play since I was leaning under to begin with
I would love to tail you on this, because I enjoy fading Zito and SF's lineup doesn't look all that great. I just don't have enough of a read on Pettibone. Good luck, Ex.
Comment
EXhoosier10
SBR MVP
07-06-09
3122
#524
Originally posted by No coincidences
I would love to tail you on this, because I enjoy fading Zito and SF's lineup doesn't look all that great. I just don't have enough of a read on Pettibone. Good luck, Ex.
Probably a good idea. I think I'm confusing a lean for some mid afternoon action. Betting 4 afternoon games can't possibly turn out profitable
