Mebaran's 2013 MLB Hangout

[No coincidences]

Need some help tomorrow. Like Kershaw at -140, would consider a -1 @-110, not sure of anything else

I'm struggling with the card as well. Not much to like.

I lean A's, Twins and Brewers, but not overly confident in any of them.

[EXhoosier10]

5/3
ATL -1 -130 ~ 1u
Atl + Nyy parlay +160 ~ 0.5u

[EXhoosier10]

we'll see how these plays go, then i'll decide on Kershaw later. Will probably pull the trigger

[italianbandit]

I was eyeing the Yankees under but didn't have enough time to look at some data. I agree that Kershaw is a good price. I think LAD has their biggest advantage FF, generally if Zito has a poor outing we will know early. If it becomes a bullpen game, I like the Giants anyway. LAD FF -.5, -105 for me.

[EXhoosier10]

I was eyeing the Yankees under but didn't have enough time to look at some data. I agree that Kershaw is a good price. I think LAD has their biggest advantage FF, generally if Zito has a poor outing we will know early. If it becomes a bullpen game, I like the Giants anyway. LAD FF -.5, -105 for me.

I like this, IB. Thanks for the tip.

Adding:
Lad FF +100 ~ 1u

[italianbandit]

Saturday
Yanks under 8.5 -105
Arizona -121

[EXhoosier10]

Dusty pinch hitting a lefty to face a LOOGY. great managing

[EXhoosier10]

Marmol --> Greg against the heart of the reds lineup to close the game. anybody iwth live bettting should probably take the +500 odds that reds win

[EXhoosier10]

5/4
Probably fade material, but whatever.
KC -134 ~ 1u

[EXhoosier10]

Saturday
Yanks under 8.5 -105
Arizona -121

Nice cash on the yanks, IB. All my data said to play the under too, but forgot to look at totals this morning and didn't get on sbr.

I can't pull the trigger on AZ. that line just screams trap for whatever reason. Looking at the lineups, Dbacks are trotting out Gerardo Parra, Wil Nieves, Josh Wilson, Cliff Pennington, Patrick Corbin as 5-9 in their order. That is disgusting and can't back them as a favorite. Might play AZ TTu3.5 at + odds

[No coincidences]

Saturday
Yanks under 8.5 -105
Arizona -121

Outstanding, IB. Wish I'd tailed.

[EXhoosier10]

Outstanding, IB. Wish I'd tailed.

Seconded. Do you have an updated record? I think you're something like 10-1 or so on posted plays

[ghislaine]

Also interested italianbandit if You have a record for the season

[EXhoosier10]

5/3 - 0-2 -1.5u
5/4 1-0 +1u

YTD: 73-53-9 +10.6705u

[italianbandit]

Giants -110. Pitchers listed

[italianbandit]

Thanks, I've been on a good roll lately, getting some good luck, don't know my posted record as I've been posting for 3 seasons now. Ghislaine if your looking for someone to follow with a posted record who mainly plays baseball, Ex is very smart and disciplined. Actually there are a lot of smart baseball players on this sub forum : No Coin, Paco, Biff, LT, 2 Da bank, Nash are some.

EX, there were several games last night that fell under the category of perhaps a "trick" line. Cards were one of them. It wasn't a bad idea to not play Arizona, but I just don't pay attention to lines that way in baseball or I'll go crazy. I have my loose model, read a lot and get a sense of value. Baseball is more of a pure betting sport (of the big 3) in the sense that lines (opening and small movement) can be put on a second tier if you know your shit.

[italianbandit]

EX did you get my PM on velocity?

[EXhoosier10]

5/6
Atl +110 ~ 1u

IB, i got your PM. I don't thinka ny of the +velo guys are going to see a significant increase increase in performacne from such a small jump, so i'm not really putting too much stock in those. Most of those velo losers seem to have already blown up and/or were already fade material to begin wtih, but it's good to have backup. The comments pointed to a recalibrated gun in Tampa, but Price/Moore/Helix's away #'s don't really reflect any sort of H/A disparity.

WRT 'trick' lines, I'm somewhat in agreement with you. I don't really know where i stand.
Hughes went 8 IP 0er at -120 v Oak
Cingrani went 6 & 4ER at -110 v Chc
Kazmir at -110 went 6 & 2 v Min (even tho -110 isn't bad, Kazmir had one of his better starts that he'll have this year)
Waino 5&5
Corbin ended up being a steal as richard got rocked early.

Obviously 1 day of games doesn't tell the entire story of 'trick' lines, but all but corbin over/under performed what you'd expect out of them throughout the course of the season. maybe TTo/u's against these 'trick' lines should be where we make plays). I don't want to overthink these games that look fishy, but when a 5 SIERA pitcher is favored over a 4 SIERA (while ERA's are in similar areas) and offenses are similar, it's hard to completely ignore what the lines may be saying.

[EXhoosier10]

weekday day game for two AL clubs both traveling tonight. Two ace pitchers, under leaning ump, hitters have no stand out BvP splits, and in general, offenses are a bit below average and neither team is playing platoon advantages.

Playing a little bit of everything here totaling a 3u play. Spreading out the risk a little bit.
Adding:
Chw @ KC FFu3 +105 ~ 0.5u
Chw @ KC u7 -125 ~ 1u
Chw @ KC u6.5 +105 ~ 1u
Chw TTu3 ~ 0.5u

[No coincidences]

What do you guys think of the PHI/SF total? Interesting that Pinny is juicing the hell out of FF under 3.5 with most books at 3. Will they budge or just keep it there? Surprised to see them hanging a 3.5 for a game total of 6.

[EXhoosier10]

What do you guys think of the PHI/SF total? Interesting that Pinny is juicing the hell out of FF under 3.5 with most books at 3. Will they budge or just keep it there? Surprised to see them hanging a 3.5 for a game total of 6.

Pitchers are both legit, phillies hitting is non-existent vs. LHP with Howard/Utley/Rollins all well below average dating back to 2011 v LHP. That being said, Howard didn't play their last game vs a lefty. Delmon/Chooch/Michael Young are above avg. Posey/Pence/Belt are all above avg hitters vs lefties + a few other guys that are average; nobody that is obscenely bad like the trio in philly. BvP for both teams are pretty normal, nothing stands out when consdiering both SP's are aces. Back ends of both bullpens are spent, but with these SP's, those guys shouldn't really play a part in today's game. Night game in SF in effect as well; Park factors are equally sucky for both LHH and RHH.

If you think bum's going to show up, SF -1.5 at +170 could be appealing IMO. WRT the total, I guess everything points to an under. I don't know what #'s Pinny is looking at that they lean o3.5 FF. I'll mull over the u6 bet on the way home, but resting any of the phillies trio or a bad ump could change the complexion of it all.

[No coincidences]

Pitchers are both legit, phillies hitting is non-existent vs. LHP with Howard/Utley/Rollins all well below average dating back to 2011 v LHP. That being said, Howard didn't play their last game vs a lefty. Delmon/Chooch/Michael Young are above avg. Posey/Pence/Belt are all above avg hitters vs lefties + a few other guys that are average; nobody that is obscenely bad like the trio in philly. BvP for both teams are pretty normal, nothing stands out when consdiering both SP's are aces. Back ends of both bullpens are spent, but with these SP's, those guys shouldn't really play a part in today's game. Night game in SF in effect as well; Park factors are equally sucky for both LHH and RHH.

If you think bum's going to show up, SF -1.5 at +170 could be appealing IMO. WRT the total, I guess everything points to an under. I don't know what #'s Pinny is looking at that they lean o3.5 FF. I'll mull over the u6 bet on the way home, but resting any of the phillies trio or a bad ump could change the complexion of it all.

Thanks, Ex. I'll give it a little more thought and do some more research.

[EXhoosier10]

Anybody have leans on the cubs/Texas game? Friend scored box seats from work and watching Feldman/tepesch has about a 5% chance of being exciting on its own. Going to need some action but don't have wifi in the new place yet to research myself

[italianbandit]

Great call this morning EX. I have a small lean on Cubs TT under 3.5, if you can get a decent price it's a good action bet.

[italianbandit]

It seems you can own Texas for a cheaper price than the under Cubs TT. I actually like that better now. Have fun.

[No coincidences]

It seems you can own Texas for a cheaper price than the under Cubs TT. I actually like that better now. Have fun.

Who has the advantage for "knowing" their opponent better: Feldman or the Rangers' lineup?

[italianbandit]

Hard to say, I would lean batters. I would think Tepesch's command and control profile matches up well against the Cubs.

[EXhoosier10]

Who has the advantage for "knowing" their opponent better: Feldman or the Rangers' lineup?

Good point here. I don't believe I've ever seen stats for this

[italianbandit]

Hard to say, I would lean batters. I would think Tepesch's command and control profile matches up well against the Cubs.

Post #777
My dad's lucky number and he is one lucky man. I now predict post comes true, Texas hits and Tepesch shuts Cubs down. .5 unit for me. Texas -120. See what you started EX.

[No coincidences]

Hard to say, I would lean batters. I would think Tepesch's command and control profile matches up well against the Cubs.

Even though it's the Cubs, I have a hard time backing a rookie on the road like this. Feldman's actually looked halfway decent so far. I'm on the Cubs FF for a unit.

[EXhoosier10]

5/6: 4-0 +4.175
YTD: 77-53-9 +14.845u

[EXhoosier10]

5/7
Oak @ Cle u8.5 -112 ~ 1.5u -- potentially adding more

[No coincidences]

5/6: 4-0 +4.175
YTD: 77-53-9 +14.845u

Outstanding work as always, Ex. You owned that KC/CHW game.

[No coincidences]

5/7
Oak @ Cle -112 ~ 1.5u -- potentially adding more

Love this play.

[EXhoosier10]

Love this play.

forgot to put in the actual play on the under 8.5.