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Man City vs. Inter Milan Prediction & Pick for 2023 Champions League Final

Anthony Wootton

Last Updated: June 10, 2023 11:56 AM EDT • 4 min 64 sec read.

Manchester City striker Erling Haaland features in our Champions League Final picks
Manchester City's Swiss defender Manuel Akanji (L) celebrates scoring the team's third goal with Manchester City's Norwegian striker Erling Haaland during the UEFA Champions League second leg semi-final football match between Manchester City and Real Madrid on May 17. Oli Scarff / AFP

Man City are 90 minutes away from completing an illustrious treble. Saturday’s opponents, Inter, are one of four clubs to achieve this feat, doing so with Jose Mourinho as head coach in 2010. Will they halt City in Istanbul? Check out our Champions League Final picks based on the best Champions League odds.

City wrapped up their third Premier League title in a row with games to spare and were afforded the luxury of resting players ahead of last weekend’s FA Cup final against Manchester United. They beat their local rivals 2-1 and head to Turkey to fulfil their destiny. Pep Guardiola knows his legacy at the club will be determined on whether he can win European football’s ultimate prize. His team is unbeaten in this season’s Champions League competition. 

Inter will be no pushovers, despite the lopsided Champions League Final odds, and have kept 12 clean sheets in the tournament this season. Will they cause a shock on Saturday? 

Here is our best Champions League Final pick (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Champions League Final pick: Man City vs. Inter

Under 2.5 goals (+115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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The clash between Manchester City and Inter Milan marks their first ever encounter. Notably, it's also the first instance where two teams meet for the first time in a competitive setting during a Champions League final since the memorable Liverpool versus AC Milan match in 2005, which took place at the Ataturk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul. Interestingly, it was Liverpool who triumphed in that particular event, orchestrating one of the most remarkable comebacks in history.

No side has scored more goals than City in this season’s competition. Their 31 Champions League goals are five more than any other team. However, Inter lead all teams in tackles, balls recovered, saves, and clean sheets. Even with Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish, and Ilkay Gundogan in City’s ranks, expect this game to be tight. 

Haaland has scored 12 Champions League goals this season for Manchester City. He’s failed to score in his last two appearances in the competition, never going three consecutive games without a goal.

There will be lots of focus on Haaland, who was shut out against United in the FA Cup final last week. But European finals are tight affairs. It’s been five years since we’ve had more than two goals scored in the showpiece. The last three have ended 1-0. 

Inter are the epitome of an Italian defense. They’ve kept eight clean sheets in 12 Champions League matches this season, including five in six games in the knockout stages. A clean sheet in the final will equal the tournament record for most in the knockout rounds. 

The Inter goalkeeper, Andre Onana, has prevented the most goals of any keeper in the Champions League this term (nine conceded from 16.8 xG on target). He could equal the record for most clean sheets by a goalkeeper in a single UEFA Champions League campaign (currently on eight), last achieved by Edouard Mendy in 2020-21 (9).

Expect Inter to defend in numbers and frustrate City. With Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez, they will threaten Manchester City on the counter. It’s going to be tense, it’s going to be tight, and I think the Under is excellent value.

This pick is also included in our best Champions League parlays for those looking to turn an even bigger profit on Saturday.

Champions League Final best odds

PointsBet (+115)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals
+110+114+105+105+115

Manchester City are the favorites, with the best price at -210 via DraftKings. You can get Inter as high as +600 via PointsBet. 

Simone Inzaghi has a 100% record as head coach in cup finals with Lazio and Inter. Although Guardiola is 2-1 as a manager in Champions League finals, he hasn’t won one without Messi. He knows he’s being judged on whether he can win the competition with the current Premier League champions, so how will he handle the pressure? 

Odds for City to win by one goal are +225 via DraftKings. For them to win by two goals is +285 with the same sportsbook. 

Haaland is -140 as an anytime scorer. City’s in-form goal scorer, Ilkay Gundogan, who netted twice in last week’s FA Cup final, is a huge +350 to score in this match.

Man City's Premier League title odds for the upcoming season would likely decrease with a victory on Saturday.

Champions League Final game info: Man City vs. Inter

  • Date: Saturday, June 10, 3 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS, CBS Sports Network
  • Location: Ataturk Olympic Stadium, Istanbul, Turkey
  • Weather: 70 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 5-mph winds

Man City-Inter Milan pick made 6/8/2023 at 4:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Anthony Wootton
Anthony is an accredited NFL journalist and has been reporting on the league for over a decade, covering the London games for the BBC and other broadcast outlets. He's presented a North American sports show for national radio across the UK, which is now the TransAtlantic Sports Show podcast. Anthony has also produced and presented radio documentaries on football for global audiences. He has years of betting experience, writing NFL tips for some of the industry's biggest sportsbooks. He's a producer of sports content, including Premier League, LaLiga, Bundesliga, Champions League, and international soccer. He's a keen follower of sport, and a long-time sufferer of English Championship team, Blackburn Rovers. He's a keen runner and completed a challenge of running every day in 2021, which included a minimum distance of 5km in the rules.