⚽ Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal Prediction, Picks & Odds for Wednesday's Champions League Match
Although Arsenal have stumbled in recent weeks, their Champions League and Premier League title hopes are still very much alive heading into Wednesday's semifinal clash with Atletico Madrid at the Metropolitano Stadium in Madrid.
The Gunners are +170 favorites, but my Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal prediction expects Atleti (+210) to put up a fight and grind out a draw in the first leg. We're also expecting big things in this match (3 p.m. ET on Paramount+) from Julian Alvarez as part of our Champions League best bets.
⚽ Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal predictions
See our experts' soccer picks based on the latest Champions League odds:
| Predictions | Best odds | Bet size | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | +210 via bet365 | 0.5 units -> 1.05 units | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 2.5 goals | -155 via DraftKings | 1.5 units -> 0.97 units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over 3.5 yellow cards | -150 via DraftKings | 1.5 units -> 1 unit | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Julian Alvarez anytime goal-scorer | +220 via FanDuel | 0.5 -> 1.1 units | ⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 4.12 units
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💰 Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Under 2.5 goals (-155)
The first leg of the Champions League semifinals is often more about avoiding defeat than it is about getting the upper hand, so we're backing a tactical stalemate in the Spanish capital.
Expect Arsenal to play with a heightened sense of caution on the road, similar to their quarterfinal affair away from home against Sporting CP when they eked out a 1-0 win. Mikel Arteta will be eager to keep the matchup close before Arsenal head back to the Emirates Stadium for the second leg.
While Atletico have played aggressively at home in the Champions League, Diego Simeone's men could struggle against a rock solid back line that's only conceded five goals in 12 games.
Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 1, Arsenal 1
🔥 Best Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal prop bet
Over 3.5 yellow cards (-150)
All signs are pointing to this being a gruelling battle. We're expecting both teams to try to keep the game close by relying on tactical fouls that should result in the match official showing over 3.5 cards.
Atletico Madrid full-backs could find themselves in trouble trying to contain Arsenal's Bukao Saka and Gabrielle Martinelli on the wings, while the tense atmosphere has the potential to force Arsenal into making mistakes that lead to reckless challenges. There's also the possibility that Arsenal's possession-based approach and Atletico's aggressive defense could clash and result in increased disciplinary action.
Arsenal and Atletico are averaging over three cards combined in the Champions League. It's around the same amount of cards that the match official, Danny Makkelie, has has averaged per game over his career officiating in the Champions League.
🙌 Best Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal goal-scorer prediction
Julian Alvarez, Atletico Madrid (+220)
Julian Alvarez has been the catalyst for Atletico Madrid's successful Champions League campaign, scoring four times in the last five games to bring his club-record breaking goal haul to nine this season.
The versatile Argentine striker has been the difference maker, punishing opposing teams with his relentless pressing and clinical finishing. Expect him to find the back of the net in an otherwise tight contest.
While he's never scored against Arsenal, Alvarez has played a role in helping Manchester City win multiple Premier League titles at the Gunners' expense. Now he has a chance to make Arsenal suffer on the continental stage.
🚀 Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal same-game parlay
The stakes are high, so we're targeting both teams to implement reserved approaches in order to limit damage before the second leg. As such, we're backing a low-scoring affair with under 2.5 total goals, while expecting things to get feisty with over 3.5 yellow cards. Overall, the pressure not to lose will see the game end in a draw, setting to up a dramatic game next week in England.
💵 Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal SGP picks
- Draw (+210)
- Under 2.5 goals (-155)
- Over 3.5 yellow cards (-150)
Best odds: +750 via DraftKings (1 unit -> 7.5 units)
⚖️ How I'm handicapping Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal
With the Champions League final in sight, both teams will be desperate to avoid giving the other an edge before the pivotal second leg in north London.
Atletico have been preparing for this meeting for weeks, abandoning a fruitless chase in La Liga to focus their efforts on winning the Champions League for the first time. But while they're a formidable force at home, efforts to take the lead could fall short against the Champions League's top defense.
Arsenal pummelled Atletico Madrid 4-0 earlier this season at the Emirates Stadium, but we're expecting a pragmatic approach Wednesday to ensure they have a chance to win at home in the return leg.
Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal key stats
| Atletico Madrid | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 34 | 27 |
| Goals against | 26 | 5 |
| Stat X | 81 | 77 |
| Stat X | 1 | 8 |
📊 Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal odds
Arsenal opened as the +140 favorite before recent movement saw the price shift to +170, while Atletico's price has drifted from +214 to +210. Meanwhile, draw odds have remained stable, moving from +190 to +180, as the market is anticipating a tight match.
🆚 Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal projected lineups
Here are Wednesday's projected lineups for Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal; lineups subject to change:
| Atletico Madrid | Arsenal |
|---|---|
| Oblak | Raya |
| Molina | White |
| Le Normand | Saliba |
| Lenglet | Gabriel |
| Ruggeri | Hincapie |
| Simeone | Odegaard |
| Koke | Zubimendi |
| Cardoso | Rice |
| Gonzalez | Saka |
| Griezmann | Gyokeres |
| Alvarez | Martinelli |
📈 Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal betting trends
| Atletico Madrid | Statistic | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-5 | Season record | 10-2-0 |
| 1-1-1 | H2H record | 1-1-1 |
| L-L-D-L-W | Last 5 games | W-L-D-L-W |
| Won 3-2 vs. Athletic Bilbao | Previous result | Won 1-0 vs. Newcastle |
| Atletico have only won two of their 12 games against English opposition in European competition. | Key stat | Arsenal are the only unbeaten team remaining in the Champions League. |
The two teams with the most games played without winning the Champions League will hope that this is their season. Arsenal have played 223 games in the competition compared to Atletico's 190 matches.
While they're experiencing varying levels of frustration domestically, Arsenal and Atletico Madrid have positioned themselves for a chance compete for the sport's most coveted club trophy.
Arsenal got a major boost with Bukayo Saka's return from injury, while there are question marks about Kai Havertz's fitness for Wednesday's trip. For Atletico, Julian Alvarez was rested over the weekend, likely signalling that Alexander Sorloth will come off the bench. Jose Gimenez remains out, while midfielder Pablo Barrios is likely done for the season with a thigh injury.
🌤️ Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal weather
The evening will be partly cloudy with a high of 52 and a 45% chance of rain during the game in Madrid. The pitch will be slick, as it's expected to rain throughout the day before the game. This will likely benefit Arsenal's high tempo and technical passing.
📺 How to watch Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal
- Date: Wednesday, April 29
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid, Spain)
- TV: Paramount+
❓ Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal FAQ
Who is favored to win Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal?
Arsenal are a -187 betting favorite against Atletico Madrid on Wednesday.
Who is the best Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal bet?
The best bets for Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal include Julian Alvarez to score (+155).
Where to watch Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal in the US and Canada?
You can watch Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal on Paramount+ in the United States, or stream the game on DAZN in Canada.
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