Arsenal vs. Everton Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday's Premier League Match
My Arsenal vs. Everton prediction looks to capitalize on a home side dealing with numerous injuries and returning home from a difficult midweek tilt in Germany. Sportsbooks have Arsenal lined as a -250 betting favorite on the three-way moneyline, and I think that's fair. I've just found other ways to attack the game.
We're going to look to a trio of volume plays ahead of kickoff from the Emirates in North London at 10 a.m. ET. You're spoiled for choice on this one, with USA Network, Telemundo, and Universo all carrying the game.
Arsenal vs. Everton predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Everton Over 8.5 shots | +120 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.6 units |
| Thierno Barry Over 2.5 shots | +125 via bet365 | 0.25 units to profit 0.31 units |
| Arsenal Under 15.5 shots | +100 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.5 units |
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Arsenal vs. Everton best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Everton Over 8.5 shots (+120 via bet365)
Much like the majority of Arsenal's opponents, Everton will not dominate possession. Fortunately for this line, they don't have to. Forest had just 26% possession last weekend and still got away 14 shots.
Jack Grealish and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall can link up centrally with Thierno Barry, and the trio can take advantage of second balls and recoveries. Even if they don't turn into great shots, they all count. Everton also has a league-leading 2.0 shots from high turnovers per game (per Opta Analytics), giving them another path to a couple of shots.
An Arsenal lead (which is very likely, although how early is another question altogether) should increase the urgency for the visitors. And Everton's away form through the start of the season suggests they won't necessarily take their foot off the gas. My pre-market discovery projections came in comfortably over this line.
Bonus play: If you're feeling a little more adventurous the Over 10.5 (+275) is also very worthy of a quarter-unit play
Play to: I'm happy with this line to all the way down to +100, and which point I'd probably look to what the 9.5 line might be.
🆚 Who will win Arsenal vs. Everton?
Arsenal will control territory and possession on Saturday, and chances for Everton to score will be incredibly limited despite looking to threaten in transition. Even with Saka joining the injury list for the hosts, this should a comfortable victory that sees David Raya avoiding trouble.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2, Everton 0
More Arsenal vs. Everton expert picks
Thierno Barry Over 2.5 shots (+125 via bet365)
Barry has taken 25 of Everton's 101 shots in domestic play this season. That level of concentration makes his individual market interesting, given my interest in the overall team market - it's a different expression of the same concept, though both can succeed individually or together.
Barry should remain the central target when Everton is able to escape pressure, with Grealish and Dewsbury-Hall supplying him. Crosses, second-balls, and quick transitional attacks give him multiple paths to three shots. Should Arsenal take a lead, the pressure will further land on Barry to produce volume.
Barry cashed this line last week, when the Toffees notched a season low six shots (their previous low was 12).
Play to: I'm happy with this line down to the +110 range, but I'm not looking to push it to Over 3.5 at all. At +110, it becomes a pass.
Arsenal Under 15.5 shots (+100 via bet365)
Arsenal should comfortably have a possession edge, but that doesn't mean that they'll compile a mass volume of shots - that's not been their M.O. all season. Everton defends decently around the goal with James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite protecting central spaces, which should result in Arsenal circulating possession around the outside and searching for prime openings instead of firing away.
One of the biggest factors here, however, is the absence of Bukayo Saka. That's not to say that Noni Madueke isn't a valuable asset over there, and surely we'll see more of Max Dowman, but the most common pathway through Arsenal attacks over the season have been through the Odegaard and Saka connection. We saw Madueke get the start on the right a couple of weeks ago against Lille in the Champions League, and his service into the middle wasn't...awesome.
Play to: I'm only here until -110, then I'm passing on the Arsenal shots market altogether. While the price is attractive at Under 13.5 (+200), I think that's just too low to expect.
Arsenal vs. Everton key stats
All stats below are for the Premier League season unless otherwise noted.
| Arsenal | Everton | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-0-1 | 2-4-1 |
| Home/Away Record | 3-0-0 at home | 0-3-0 away |
| Recent form (all comps) | WLWWWD | DDWWDL |
| Goals for | 11 | 8 |
| xG | 11.93 | 9.43 |
| Goals against | 5 | 7 |
| xGA | 5.56 | 9.73 |
| Average possession | 61.2% | 47.2% |
Arsenal vs. Everton odds
Arsenal vs. Everton projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Arsenal vs. Everton; subject to change:
| Arsenal (4-2-3-1) | Everton (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Raya (GK) | Pickford (GK) |
| White (D) | Maitland-Niles (D) |
| Konsa (D) | Tarkowski (D) |
| Gabriel (D) | Branthwaite (D) |
| Calafiori (D) | Mykolenko (D) |
| Bruno G. (M) | Armstrong (M) |
| Rice (M) | Garner (M) |
| Madueke (M) | Rohl (M) |
| Odegaard (M) | Dewsbury-Hall (M) |
| Eze (M) | Grealish (M) |
| Havertz (F) | Barry (F) |
Arsenal vs. Everton injuries
Arsenal:
- Piero Hincapie (ankle) - doubtful
- William Saliba (back) - out
- Bukayo Saka (quad) - out
- Christos Tzolis (hamstring) - out
Everton:
- None
How to watch Arsenal vs. Everton
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 24
- Kickoff: 10 a.m. ET
- Location: Emirates Stadium (London)
- TV/Streaming: USA Network, Telemundo, Universo
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