⚽ Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tuesday's Champions League Match
Arsenal will be confident about securing a spot in the Champions League final after grinding out a draw in Spain during the first leg of their semifinal against Atletico Madrid. My Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid prediction is targeting a triumphant night for the hosts at the Emirates Stadium in London on Tuesday.
Arsenal enter the game (3 p.m. ET on Peacock+) as strong -167 favorites to win at home against an Atletico Madrid team (+450) that needed to fight back to earn a draw last week. Our Champions League best bets feature an Arsenal striker who's firing on all cylinders.
⚽ Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid predictions
See our experts' soccer picks based on the latest Champions League odds:
| Predictions | Best odds | Bet size | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal ML | -167 via bet365 | 1.5 units -> 0.9 units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 2.5 goals | -111 via bet365 | 1 unit -> 0.9 units | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bukayo Saka assist | +295 via DraftKings | 0.5 units -> 1.48 units | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Viktor Gyokeres anytime goal | +145 via FanDuel | 0.5 units -> 0.73 units | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.5 units | Max profit: 4.01 units
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💰 Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Arsenal ML (-167)
Arsenal's formidable record at home, along with their experience in beating Atletico Madrid at the Emirates Stadium already this season, will propel them to victory.
Before positioning themselves to reach the Champions League final with an away draw last week, Arsenal already experienced success against the Spaniards after steamrolling Atletico Madrid 4-0 in north London in September. It was the Atleti's joint-heaviest defeat in the competition.
Atletico's poor record in away games against English opposition should also be cause for concern after losing six of their last seven such matches against Premier League clubs in the Champions League.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2, Atetico Madrid 1
🔥 Best Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid prop bet
Bukayo Saka assist (+295)
Bukayo Saka is poised for another solid performance during Arsenal's biggest game of the season. Considering that he's Arsenal's main creative spark and the team's designated set-piece taker, we're backing Saka to pick up an assist Tuesday.
The winger, who has tallied 10 goals and eight assists in all competitions this season, appears to have rediscovered his elite form after returning from injury. He was dominant in Arsenal's victory over Fulham last weekend, needing just 45 minutes to register a goal and an assist.
Atletico Madrid are likely to sit deep and invite pressure, which could lead to an increase in corner kicks for Saka, and an Arsenal team that's averaging 5.38 corners per game.
🙌 Best Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid goal-scorer prediction
Viktor Gyokeres, Arsenal (+145)
Viktor Gyokeres appears to be hitting his stride just in time for Tuesday's crucial game. The Swedish forward is a strong candidate to find the back of the net, as Arsenal are expected to hold a majority of possession and generate plenty of shots against Atletico Madrid.
Gyokeres' confidence is high after playing a starring role against Fulham on Saturday, scoring twice and providing an assist. He's tallied 21 goals and three assists in all competitions during his first season with Arsenal.
The quality of service should also benefit Gyokeres with Saka back to full strength. If he scores Tuesday, Gyokeres will become just the third player to do so in both legs of a Champions League semifinal for a Premier League team.
🚀 Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid same-game parlay
This three-leg parlay relies on Arsenal coming out firing against Atletico, with Saka and Gyokeres playing starring roles in attack. Those two are often the focal points in attack, so expect either to be involved if Arsenal find the back of the net.
💵 Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid SGP picks
- Arsenal ML (-167)
- Bukayo Saka assist (+295)
- Viktor Gyokeres anytime goal (+145)
Best odds: +1447 via bet365 (0.5 units -> 7.24 units)
⚖️ How I'm handicapping Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid
Backing Atletico Madrid on the road doesn't instil the same confidence when they're at home. It's not even close.
Atletico's poor form away from home indicates that Diego Simeone's teams are especially vulnerable on the road. The club struggles psychologically to cope with the atmosphere when not at Metropolitano Stadium.
Conversely, Arsenal have turned the Emirates Stadium into a fortress. They have yet to lose at home in the Champions League this season (5-1-0), limiting opponents to three goals in six matches.
Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid key stats
| Arsenal | Atletico Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 28 | 35 |
| Goals against | 6 | 27 |
| xG | 26.32 | 28.70 |
| Shots on target | 79 | 86 |
📊 Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid odds
After opening as -140 favourites, the market has moved even more toward the Gunners since their dominant win over the weekend, with the latest odds sitting at -163. The shift comes after talisman Saka proved he's fully fit, while the public also doubts that Atletico will be able to overcome their struggles in away matches against English opposition.
🆚 Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid projected lineups
Here are Tuesday's projected lineups for Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid; lineups subject to change:
| Arsenal | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|
| Raya | Oblak |
| White | Llorente |
| Saliba | Pubill |
| Gabriel | Hancko |
| Hincapie | Ruggeri |
| Rice | Simeone |
| Zubimendi | Koke |
| Saka | Cardoso |
| Eze | Lookman |
| Trossard | Alvarez |
| Gyokeres | Griezmann |
📈 Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid betting trends
| Arsenal | Statistic | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 10-3-0 | Season record | 7-3-5 |
| 1-2-1 | H2H record | 1-2-1 |
| D-L-W-D-W | Last 5 games | D-L-W-D-W |
| Won 3-0 vs. Fulham | Previous result | Won 2-0 vs. Valencia |
| Arsenal are unbeaten in their last eight games against Spanish teams in the Champions League. | Key stat | Atletico Madrid have lost six of their last seven away games against English teams in the Champions League. |
The momentum is in Arsenal's favor after escaping the Spanish capital with a draw. The Gunners thought they had a chance to win the game, but the contest ended in a tie after a decision to overturn a late penalty. Mikel Arteta's team went on to dispatch Fulham with an impressive win, further signalling the squad has overcome a difficult spell that almost threatened to derail their Premier League and Champions League campaigns.
Although Saka is back to doing Saka things, it's unclear if Martin Odegaard or Kai Havertz will be available to play against Atletico in Arteta's 4-3-3 formation.
Meanwhile, Atletico could get a boost in defense if Jose Gimenez is cleared to play after missing the first leg. Pablo Barrios is also hoping to be included in Simeone's 5-3-2 setup.
🌤️ Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid weather
The pitch should remain dry for the most part, with just a 20% chance of rain. The temperature is expected to dip to 48 by the evening with calm winds of 7 mph. Overall, the weather shouldn't significantly impact Tuesday's game in north London.
📺 How to watch Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid
- Date: Tuesday, May 5
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
- TV: Paramount+
❓ Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid FAQ
Who is favored to win Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid?
Arsenal are a -167 betting favorite against Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.
Who is the best Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid bet?
The best bets for Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid include Viktor Gyokeres to score (+145).
Where to watch Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid in the US and Canada?
You can watch Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid on Paramount+ in the United States, or stream the game on DAZN in Canada.
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