Following a blowout loss in Week 3 to the Buffalo Bills, the Washington Commanders have earned a spot on our list of top NFL upset picks for Week 4, determined by the top NFL odds from the best sports betting apps.
Last week's results served as a stark reminder of the unpredictability of the NFL, with the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Arizona Cardinals all securing victories as significant moneyline underdogs, with odds at +300 or longer.
Here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 4 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
- Washington Commanders (+330 via FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Eagles ⭐⭐⭐
- Carolina Panthers (+180 via DraftKings) vs. Minnesota Vikings ⭐⭐⭐
- Baltimore Ravens (+130 via DraftKings) vs. Cleveland Browns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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NFL upset predictions
Washington Commanders ML vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+330 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Washington is coming off a humiliating 34-point loss at home, while the Eagles just played their best game of the season on Monday Night Football. The situational spots alone are enough to consider the Commanders as a top upset pick for Week 4, but there are other reasons to like Washington, as well.
First, Washington's 37-3 loss to Buffalo wasn't quite as bad as the final score would indicate, as the Commanders were still within two scores of the Bills in the fourth quarter before having to abandon a productive running game as the clock dwindled down. Washington also lost the turnover battle 5-0, something that almost certainly won't happen this week.
Second, the Commanders have been a dangerous road dog in recent years, including ending the Steelers' hopes of an unbeaten season in 2020 (Pittsburgh was 11-0 at the time) and beating the Eagles 32-21 on this very field a year ago. The Commanders are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games, 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight as underdogs, and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six visits to Philadelphia.
With the Eagles on a short week and Jalen Hurts still not quite looking like himself, the potential is there for the Commanders to surprise. If you agree, make sure to check out the latest price at FanDuel, which offers +330, 20 cents better than most of our other best sports betting apps.
Carolina Panthers ML vs. Minnesota Vikings (+180 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Bettors have been eager to back the Vikings in this battle of winless teams, moving Minnesota out to -4 and -200 on the moneyline at most of our best sports betting sites. But what have the Vikings done to merit being significant road chalk here?
Sure, each of the Vikes' first three losses has come by a narrow margin, but regression in close games was certainly expected after the team went an NFL-record 11-0 in one-score contests last year.
After losing last week's game on a goal-line interception in the dying seconds, morale can't be high for a Minnesota team that will be three wins behind either the Packers or Lions for first place in the NFC North when this game kicks off (barring a tie in the Green Bay/Detroit game Thursday night.) The defense has also been awful against both the run and the pass, allowing 259 rushing yards two weeks ago and then getting torched for 454 through the air last week by the Chargers.
Unlike the Vikings, Carolina wasn't expected to be in the playoff mix this season, so an 0-3 start shouldn't be as discouraging to the Panthers. If anything, they should be optimistic about their chances of the upset after hanging tough last week in Seattle, trailing 22-20 in the fourth quarter before the Seahawks pulled away for a 37-27 win.
If starting quarterback Bryce Young can’t play for the second straight week, the offense might also be better with backup Andy Dalton, who threw for 367 yards against the Hawks.
Baltimore Ravens ML vs. Cleveland Browns (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Two weeks ago, the injury-depleted Ravens went into Cincinnati as field-goal underdogs and pulled off an outright win over a division rival. That's the spot Baltimore finds itself in once again this week, as it visits the Browns with the AFC North lead on the line, and we shouldn't be surprised if history repeats itself.
The absence of six players who started opening day caught up with Baltimore in last week's 22-19 overtime loss to the Colts, a game the Ravens still would have won if they hadn't mismanaged the clock late in regulation.
Baltimore excels at bouncing back from losses under coach Jim Harbaugh, winning each of its last five in that situation when Lamar Jackson is in the lineup. Speaking of Jackson, he's still playing at the top of his game, running for 101 yards and two touchdowns last week while completing 71% of his throws.
Cleveland was just a 3.5-point favorite last week against Tennessee, as bettors weren't sure how the Browns could overcome the loss of Nick Chubb. The Brownies responded with a 27-3 blowout of the Titans, but much of that offensive success was taking advantage of an awful Tennessee secondary.
Cleveland's running game struggled without Chubb, as feature back Jerome Ford managed just 18 yards on 10 carries, and they'll miss that ability to move the ball on the ground against Baltimore.
At this underdog price, we'll happily back the Ravens to win for the 12th time in their last 16 visits to Cleveland.
NFL upset picks made 09/28/2023 at 9:16 a.m. ET.
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