NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 18: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

It's the final week of the NFL regular season and we have a trio of underdogs to keep up the sweat all day on Sunday.

Mike Spector

Last updated: January 1, 2025 8:55 AM EST • 5 min read

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud enters the field as we look at our NFL Week 18 upset picks. — Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud enters the field before playing against the Baltimore Ravens at NRG Stadium. Photo by Thomas Shea / Imagn Images.

NFL favorites continued to dominate in Week 17, going 15-1 SU, making finding NFL upset picks difficult. However, with teams having varying motivation levels in Week 18, plenty of underdogs should be worthy of a play.

NFL favorites of six or more points are 29-1 SU since Week 13 (the only loss was the Colts to the Giants in Week 17)
There have been zero double-digit upsets this season for the first time since 2016
Tennessee is an NFL-worst 2-14 ATS, but it favored over Houston this week

As part of our NFL Week 18 predictions, my NFL upset picks try to find value in the season's final week.

NFL underdogs to back: Week 18

NFL odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Texans (-104 via FanDuel) at Titans ⭐⭐⭐
Patriots (+130 via BetMGM) vs. Bills ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Raiders (+225 via BetMGM) vs. Chargers ⭐⭐

Week 18 upset predictions

NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Texans (-104) ⭐⭐⭐

Backing a team that is locked into its playoff spot (the No. 4 seed in the AFC) never brings much confidence, but the Titans are so bad that it may not matter who Houston trots out this week.

Tennessee has now covered just two of its 16 games this year. Entering Week 17, its 2-13 ATS start was tied with the 2007 Ravens for the worst of any team in the Super Bowl era. And by comparison, just three teams since 1980 even finished 3-13 ATS or worse.

The Titans said they would use this week to evaluate both quarterbacks, Mason Rudolph and Will Levis. Under Rudolph, the team has lost back-to-back games, and Levis’s 17 turnovers are tied for the most in the league.

Entering Week 18, the Titans have the projected third pick in the draft, which could improve depending on what the Patriots and Browns do.

That brings into question the Titans’ motivation in this game, while Houston may be keen on avoiding entering the playoffs on a three-game losing streak despite playing several backups.

One could have backed the Texans at plus-money odds earlier in the week. But at these -104 odds, they are still an underdog, and a winning $10 wager would pay out $19.62.

Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%

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Patriots (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC. At this point, all they have said from a player personnel perspective entering Week 18 is that Josh Allen would start to preserve his consecutive games started streak but then sit afterward.

That sounds like we may just see Allen for one series before handing over the reins to Mitchell Trubisky.

But the biggest reason for fading the Bills is that I have no confidence in their second-string defense, who allowed consecutive scoring drives to Tyrod Taylor and the Jets offense in mop-up time last week.

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering better than +125 odds to back the home underdogs.

Best odds: +130 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 43.48%

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Raiders (+225) ⭐⭐

I am only starting this play with two stars of confidence, as my confidence level would change depending on Saturday’s results.

If the Steelers beat the Bengals on Saturday night, Los Angeles is locked into the No. 6 seed.

If Pittsburgh loses, the Chargers will be motivated to win against the Raiders in Week 18 to try to improve to the No. 5 seed. This would earn them a Wild Card round date against the Texans instead of the Ravens.

Either way, Las Vegas isn’t playing out the string, as it is coming off back-to-back wins for the first time this season.

These odds are likely to plummet (the Raiders may actually close as favorites) if the Steelers win, so this is as much of a bet on Pittsburgh as it is on Las Vegas (with a better return, of course).

Best odds: +225 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 30.77%

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”