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Tank Dell of the Houston Texans scores a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts as we share our favorite Steelers vs. Texans prediction.
Tank Dell of the Houston Texans scores a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium on Sept. 17, 2023 in Houston, Texas. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images via AFP.

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud got his maiden win on the road last week, and we discuss if the rookie can continue to impress against a strong Steelers defense in our Steelers vs. Texans predictions based on the best NFL odds

The Steelers and Texans have played each other seven times previously. Pittsburgh has won five of those seven meetings. All seven games between these teams have been decided by at least seven points and four of the seven by at least 18 points.

The Steelers have secured victories in their last two games, including a recent road win against the Las Vegas Raiders. Furthermore, they have emerged victorious in each of their last five road matches, conceding fewer than 20 points in each game.

The Texans' 37-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3 marked their first victory with a 20-point margin in four years.

Here is our best Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans prediction and NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Steelers vs. Texans prediction

C.J. Stroud Over 235.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is the first player in NFL history to have at least 900 passing yards and no interceptions in his first three career starts. Deshaun Watson is the only other Houston QB to have 900-plus yards and no interceptions over any three-start span.

Texans wide receiver Tank Dell is a beneficiary of that NFL record. Dell has 251 receiving yards and two touchdowns this season. He's the first Houston player all-time with 250-plus yards receiving and multiple TD catches over his first three games.

Heading into Week 4, the Steelers’ defense ranks in the bottom 10 in passing yards allowed (706). That averages just over 235 passing yards per game, but it gave up 324 yards in its first road matchup of the season to Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo last weekend.

Houston ranks 30th in rushing, averaging just 70 yards per game. Stroud is an early contender for Offensive Rookie of the Year, repaying the Texans for the faith they put in their second overall draft pick. Pittsburgh's D will be a test, but Stroud is rolling and should feel himself in front of the home crowd. With the run game virtually non-existent, expect the rookie to continue driving his offense through the air.

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Steelers vs. Texans best odds

bet365 (-110)

Stroud Over 239.5 passing yardsStroud Over 235.5 passing yardsStroud Over 239.5 passing yardsStroud Over 239.5 passing yardsStroud Over 235.5 passing yards

The line is set at 222.5 for Steelers signal-caller Kenny Pickett, which shows the early impact Stroud has on the league. Most of our best sports betting apps set the line at 239.5 passing yards for Stroud, which dropped from 240.5 on Thursday. FanDuel and bet365 are the exception, gifting us four yards at 235.5. Bet365's odds are more favorable at -110.

Stroud averages over 300 passing YPG, and against the Jaguars he didn’t slow down when they had the lead. Houston’s roster is inferior to Pittsburgh's; it might be chasing the game in this contest. The Texans’ passing game will be called into action once more.

Steelers vs. Texans odds

Steelers vs. Texans odds analysis

The Steelers are moneyline favorites for the first time this season. Their -148 odds are the shortest they've played with during the current campaign.

The Texans are 3-point home underdogs. They've covered the spread once this season. Pittsburgh covered in both of its last two games.

Steelers vs. Texans game info

  • When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: Indoors

Steelers-Texans prediction made 9/29/23 at 4:07 p.m. ET

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