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Derek Carr of the New Orleans Saints throws a pass as we share our favorite Saints vs. Packers prediction.
Derek Carr of the New Orleans Saints throws a pass against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on Sept. 18, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images via AFP.

A pair of NFC teams tied atop their respective divisions meet as the New Orleans Saints head north to visit the Green Bay Packers, and here’s our top Saints vs. Packers predictions based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

The New Orleans Saints come off a short week after beating the Carolina Panthers 20-17 on Monday Night Football. They’re now 2-0 for the first time since 2013.

Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers blew a 24-12 lead in their loss to the Atlanta Falcons last week, and the statuses of a number of their key starters is in question ahead of Sunday’s home opener at Lambeau Field.

Here is our best Saints vs. Packers prediction and NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saints vs. Packers prediction

Over 42.5 (-110 via BetMGM, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Packers quarterback Jordan Love has an NFL-best 118.8 passer rating through the first two weeks, with two road starts. Love is tied for an NFL lead with six touchdown passes despite attempting the 28th-most passes. He's also the only one of eight quarterbacks with four-plus touchdown passes to play turnover-free football.

The Packers still put up 24 points and came within one of handing Falcons QB Desmond Ridder his first loss in 30 home starts (both college and NFL). In addition, Green Bay was without three of its most important offensive players (running back Aaron Jones (hamstring), wide receiver Christian Watson (hamstring), and offensive tackle David Bakhtiari (knee)), so its ceiling is even higher if any or all of them are active Sunday.

Love faces his most stern test against a Saints' defense that finished in the top nine in points per game allowed in the last three seasons. And while New Orleans recorded seven sacks through two matchups, Love was sacked twice so far, and his mobility should serve him well in this contest. 

New Orleans had offensive line issues, with quarterback Derek Carr sacked eight times this season. However, four of the five starters played together for more than two years, so there's optimism that a veteran group will gel soon while learning to protect a new QB.

It's also the last game the Saints will be without running back Alvin Kamara, but their air attack got a jolt when wideouts Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed combined for 17 catches and 204 yards Monday. So, the offense will be fine under Carr, one of three quarterbacks ranking in the top 15 of QBR each of the past four seasons.

We should see positive regression for the Saints' offense, with one touchdown and four field goals in their first six red zone opportunities this year. They can build off the momentum of scoring TDs on their final two red zone trips against the Panthers.

This is a contrarian play, as the Under cashed in each of New Orleans’ last eight games. However, this total is skewed because of the Saints’ success against opposing QBs Ryan Tannehill and Bryce Young through two weeks.

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Saints vs. Packers best odds

BetMGM, DraftKings (-110)

Over (-110)Over (-110)Over (-110)Over (-110)Over (-110)

Our five best sports betting apps are split by a half-point with regard to the total, with 42.5 the lowest number to date. FanDuel is slightly juiced to the Over (-115) while matching DraftKings' and BetMGM's totals, but the other two are our go-to shops since they're more affordable with -110 odds. The Over cashed in both of Green Bay’s games this season and is 7-5 in its non-division games since last season's start.

Saints vs. Packers odds

Saints vs. Packers odds analysis

Before New Orleans kicked off its Monday night game, the lookahead total was 43.5 at BetMGM, with FanDuel leading the market at 44. However, the line dropped because of the Saints’ 20-17 win and subsequent eighth straight Under, though early bettors gave a slight lean to the Over with a 61/39 betting split.

All of our best sports betting sites agree with a -2 Green Bay spread, but it wouldn't be shocking if the line got to the key number of -3 if the Packers hear positive injury news on offense. The spread held firm at -2 all day Tuesday, increasing from -1.5 after the Saints’ MNF result. Early spread wagers are nearly 2/1 (63/37) in Green Bay's favor.

Saints vs. Packers game info

  • When: Sunday, Sept. 24 at 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: 70 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, 12-mph ESE wind

Saints-Packers prediction made 9/19/23 at 4:12 p.m. ET

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