Russell Wilson NFL Player Props, Odds Week 11: Predictions for Vikings vs. Broncos
The Denver Broncos host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, and we make our best Russell Wilson NFL player prop predictions based on the top NFL odds.
Russell Wilson has managed only 1,806 passing yards this season, but he's been very good overall. He’s completing 67.9% of his passes and has 18 touchdown passes to just four interceptions. He’s also run for 231 yards this season, averaging 5.8 per carry. It's a great bounce-back for Wilson, who struggled mightily in 2022.
During the Broncos' three-game winning streak, Wilson has thrown six touchdowns and zero interceptions. However, he hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards since Week 4 against the Chicago Bears.
Our Mike Spector is riding with the Broncos to keep that winning streak alive with his Vikings vs. Broncos predictions.
To accompany our Vikings v. Broncos NFL player props, here are our best Russell Wilson NFL player prop predictions for the Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos Week 11 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Russell Wilson NFL player prop predictions for Week 11
- Russell Wilson Under 204.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Russell Wilson Over 19.5 completions (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Russell Wilson Over 1.5 touchdown passes (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
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Russell Wilson player props
Russell Wilson Under 204.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Wilson has thrown for 196 yards or fewer in five consecutive games. His average during that stretch is just 158.4 passing yards per game. Because the Vikings were terrible against the pass last season and early this year, many believe their defense is one quarterbacks have career days against. However, that’s not the case.
The Vikings have the 16th-best pass defense in the NFL. They’re allowing 224.4 passing yards per game this year and 223.7 over their last three contests. Wilson has played really good defenses over the past five weeks, but failing to hit 200 in any of those games doesn’t bode well for him having a big game in Week 11.
Four of our five best sports betting apps are offering a total of 202.5. We recommend paying the extra bit to get two additional yards with FanDuel.
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Russell Wilson Over 19.5 completions (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Based on the prices at our best sports betting sites, we expect this number to climb to 20.5 before kickoff. Therefore, we recommend getting in at FanDuel as quickly as possible, as it's offering a much better price than the -135 being offered everywhere else.
Wilson has completed at least 20 passes in all but three games this season. Two of those lackluster performances came against the Kansas City Chiefs. The other came when he needed just 18 completions to throw for 308 yards against the Washington Commanders in Week 2.
The Vikings’ pass defense has been all about avoiding the big play. Though they’re ranked 16th in passing defense, they’re 24th in completions allowed per game. Their opponents are averaging 24.4 against them but just 9.2 yards per completion. The Broncos rank 26th in yards per completion. In a game full of short passes, Wilson will hit this Over with ease.
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Russell Wilson Over 1.5 touchdown passes (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Wilson has thrown at least one touchdown in every game this season. He’s thrown multiple scores in back-to-back contests and six of his nine this year. The Vikings are allowing 2.2 touchdowns per game. If the Broncos are going to match that average this week, it will be because of Wilson and not their rushing attack, which has scored just one touchdown all season.
The Broncos are scoring touchdowns on 53.13% of their red-zone opportunities this season. The Vikings are allowing touchdowns 60% of the time. These percentages bode well for the Broncos in Week 11. When you consider how bad the Broncos’ rushing attack has been close to the goal line, it’s not hard to see the path for Wilson to two or more touchdown passes.
The price for this prop is valuable at all of our best sportsbooks. However, bet365 is offering the best price by a lot, and we don’t expect any other sportsbook to come close to it before kickoff.
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Russell Wilson player prop picks made 11/19/2023 at 8:32 a.m. ET.
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