We’ve broken down every Week 11 matchup to make our best NFL receiving player prop predictions, which are headlined by Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, and they're based on the best NFL odds from our top NFL prop betting sites.
St. Brown has topped 100 receiving yards in four consecutive games and he set a new career high with 156 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10.
Can he make it five straight with a big game against the susceptible Chicago Bears secondary?
Meanwhile, we have to wonder how Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper will be affected by rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson making just his second start of the season on Sunday.
Finally, which Seattle Seahawks tight end will take advantage of the cushy matchup against the Los Angeles Rams in their NFC West clash?
Check out our NFL Week 11 predictions and Week 11 best bets, along with our Week 11 NFL props to accompany our best NFL receiving player prop predictions for Week 11 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL receiving prop predictions for Week 11
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 84.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Amari Cooper Under 46.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Noah Fant Over 18.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Receiving player props
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 84.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
St. Brown has gone over 100 yards in six of his eight games this season. Yet, his prop is always listed below 90 yards. This week, he takes on a Bears defense that allows 248.2 passing yards per game. But even if the Bears weren’t ranked 26th in the league in pass defense, we’d still take St. Brown to go Over his total.
St. Brown has been targeted at least seven times and hauled in at least five catches in every single game this season. Additionally, he’s averaging 12.6 yards per reception. He has just one game where his average reception length was less than 10 yards. It won’t take many catches for him to hit this over.
Additionally, Chicago quarterback Justin Fields has returned from a thumb injury for the Bears. We believe the game will be closer than if Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent were playing, which means more passing from the Detroit Lions.
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Amari Cooper Under 46.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cooper has looked great over the last three weeks. He has at least five catches and 89 yards in each contest. However, you can throw all those numbers out the window with Thompson-Robinson under center.
In the one game started by Thompson-Robinson this season, Cooper caught just one pass for 16 yards. He was targeted six times, but the rookie quarterback’s inaccuracy proved too much for Cooper. We haven’t seen Thompson-Robinson since that game, so even if the Cleveland Browns’ coaching staff is trying to sell us on him, we can’t trust any Browns’ receivers until Thompson-Robinson gives us a reason to.
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DraftKings currently has under 46.5 listed with a price of -125, and some of our other best sports betting apps have the price at -115 or worse. Get in soon, as we expect this number to drop, especially considering FanDuel has the total listed at 45.5 already.
Noah Fant Over 18.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Rams have a tough time covering tight ends. They’ve given up 555 yards to the position, an average of 61.7 yards per game, the sixth-worst mark in the league. The Seahawks have a stacked receiving corps and three tight ends that they use in the passing attack. So far this season, Fant has been the preferred option.
Last week, Fant finished with just two catches for six yards. This was one week after he failed to record any catches. He hasn’t had more than two catches in a game since Week 3 against the Carolina Panthers. Yet, we think he can go Over this really low number on Sunday.
Fant did nothing against the Rams in the first game of the season. However, with Matthew Stafford back and the Seahawks’ defense struggling, we expect this to be a pass-heavy game. Fant is fourth on the team in receptions and yards and fifth in targets. In a game that will feature plenty of pass plays, Fant has the best matchup of any Seahawk.
Receiving prop picks made 11/17/2023 at 7:59 a.m. ET.
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