Patriots vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bet Odds & Touchdown Picks: Maye Airs It Out

We're targeting the New England Patriots passing attack, including Drake Maye's attempts, with our Patriots vs. Dolphins player props.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 23, 2024 1:30 PM EST • 5 minute read

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye throws the ball against the Los Angeles Rams as we offer our Patriots vs. Dolphins player props. — New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye throws the ball against the Los Angeles Rams. Photo by Brian Fluharty via Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins look to continue their hottest stretch of the season when they face the New England Patriots as home favorites in Sunday's AFC East clash.

The Dolphins snapped a three-game home losing streak last week and have won consecutive games for the first time this season
Miami scored a season-high 34 points in last week’s win over the Raiders
New England is off to a 3-8 start or worse in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1992-93

Our Patriots vs. Dolphins player prop bets, part of our NFL Week 12 predictions, focus on New England's passing game and expect Miami's receiver struggles to continue.

The Dolphins are favored by as many as 7.5 points, and the total is set at 46. Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET, airing on CBS.

Patriots vs. Dolphins NFL player prop bets: Sunday

Odds as of Thursday and subject to change.

Hunter Henry touchdown pick: Henry anytime touchdown scorer (+300 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Drake Maye Over 32.5 pass attempts (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Jaylen Waddle Under 40.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Patriots vs. Dolphins touchdown pick

Hunter Henry anytime touchdown scorer (+300) ⭐⭐⭐

Miami’s team total O/U is higher than New England’s at 27.5 points, but I am backing a Patriots player’s anytime touchdown odds given how much volume Henry sees in the red zone.

Henry has seen six red zone targets over the last three weeks, the most among tight ends in that span. He faces a Miami defense that allows the second-most targets to the position.

Since Drake Maye took over as the Patriots starting quarterback, Henry is averaging 11.2 fantasy points per game and has a 26% first-read rate (6th-best among tight ends).

Meanwhile, the Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most yards to tight ends since Week 7, so Henry should see plenty of volume to further his chances of finding the end zone.

FanDuel offers by far the best value on this three-star play, as DraftKings is on the low end of the market at +225 (carrying a 30.77% implied probability). With FanDuel’s +300 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $30 in profits.

Best odds: +300 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 25%

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Best Patriots vs. Dolphins prop bets

Drake Maye Over 32.5 pass attempts (-125) ⭐⭐⭐

Maye is coming off his third start with multiple turnovers, and New England is 0-3 in those games. However, that has not meant head coach Jerod Mayo’s confidence in him has wavered, as Maye has thrown 40 or more passes in two of the last three games.

Maye has averaged 17 fantasy points per game in five full games as a starter. Asking him to drop back to pass often is wise, considering it gives him more opportunities to use his legs. Maye has at least 20 rushing yards in five of his previous six games.

This is a three-star play, as I expect the game flow will dictate a heavy volume passing attack for the Patriots as a touchdown underdog. Maye’s O/U has lowered from 34.5 earlier in the week, giving us a much better number as Over backers.

Best odds: -125 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 55.56%

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Jaylen Waddle Under 40.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 77.7% completion percentage since returning to the lineup in Week 8. However, very few of those completions are going to Jaylen Waddle.

Waddle ranks fourth on the Dolphins in targets and receptions with Tagovailoa under center, and he has produced single-digit fantasy point games every week since Week 2.

This is a three-star play, as Waddle has seen three or fewer targets in three of the last five games and has not finished as a top-35 wide receiver since Week 1.

Under backers are getting the best number and price at BetMGM, as Waddle’s O/U is as low as 38.5 at FanDuel, with the Under juiced to -114.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Patriots vs. Dolphins game info

When: Sunday, Nov. 24
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
How to watch: CBS
Weather: 77 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph E
Favorite: Dolphins -7.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”