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Mac Jones of the New England Patriots makes an adjustment at the line of scrimmage during the second half against the New York Jets, and we offer our top NFL upset picks for Week 6 based on the best NFL odds.
Mac Jones of the New England Patriots makes an adjustment at the line of scrimmage during the second half against the New York Jets. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images via AFP.

The Dallas Cowboys host the New England Patriots, as we make our best Patriots vs. Cowboys predictions based on the best NFL odds.

After outscoring the New York Giants and New York Jets 70-10 in the first two weeks of the season, the Cowboys crashed back down to earth against the Arizona Cardinals. The defense allowed 222 rushing yards in the 28-16 loss.

Meanwhile, the Patriots secured their first win of the season, although it was not a convincing victory. Interestingly, all three of their games this season have been decided by seven or fewer points.

Here is our best Patriots vs. Cowboys prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Patriots vs. Cowboys prediction

Patriots +6.5 (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

This is a three-star play just in case the Cowboys bounce back in a huge way. However, when dissecting this matchup, there is a lot to like about the Patriots.

The Patriots’ defense is allowing just 285.3 yards per game, despite having played both the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles. While they’re averaging just over 17 points per game, they’re also staying in games. They’re the ones imposing their will against their opponents, which is a huge reason they’re always in a position to win.

The Cowboys have benefited from a really easy schedule. While they looked impressive in their first two wins, last week was a different story. The run defense was nowhere to be found, and the defensive line that had been so dominant for two weeks managed just two sacks.

Additionally, the Cowboys’ offense couldn’t finish drives. They settled for three field goals, and while they set a season-high for yardage, they also set a season-low for points. 

The Cowboys’ offense hasn’t been good enough to pull away in this one. If the Patriots stay within striking distance and can run the ball as effectively as the Cardinals did, then not only will they cover, but they may win the game.

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Patriots vs. Cowboys best odds

DraftKings (-105)


Caesars is the only sportsbook currently offering +7, however, the price they’re asking is significantly worse than what you can find for +6.5. Because we think this is a game that the Patriots can actually win, we recommend taking +6.5 for -105 at either DraftKings or BetMGM.

Keep an eye on line movement, and take +7 for -110 or better if it becomes available.

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Patriots vs. Cowboys odds

Patriots vs. Cowboys odds analysis

The Cowboys opened as 7.5-point favorites, and despite seeing 56% wagers, the number has dropped to 7 or 6.5 at each of the best sports betting apps. At least initially, oddsmakers seem willing to ignore the betting public and move the spread the opposite of what they’re thinking. However, the key number is very much in play, so whatever side you’re on, shop around to find either -7 or +7.

The total opened at 43.5, and it seems like it’s going to drop before kickoff. 60% of bettors are backing the Under, and the price is starting to become more expensive for the Under at each of the best sports betting sites. If you’re on the Under, this is probably the best you’re going to get.

Patriots vs. Cowboys game info

  • When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: Indoors

Patriots vs. Cowboys prediction made 9/29/2023 at 12:47 p.m. ET

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