We’re cautioning bettors from overlooking New England at home in our Dolphins vs. Patriots SGP predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Although the New England Patriots came up short in slaying the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, we saw things from their offense that suggest the Pats can hang with Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins in Week 2’s SNF.
After an enthralling Week 1 win over the Chargers, is Miami walking into a trap game under the lights in Foxborough?
Here are our best Dolphins vs. Patriots SGP predictions (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dolphins vs. Patriots parlay for SNF
(Odds via FanDuel)
- Patriots +2.5 (-102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Mac Jones Over 237.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tyreek Hill 80+ receiving yards (-120) ⭐⭐⭐
Combined odds: +532 via FanDuel
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SGP predictions for Dolphins vs. Patriots
Roughly 61% of wagers have been placed on Miami at -2.5 in this matchup, so this seems like an opportunity to fade the public. Miami was susceptible to the Chargers' offense last week, allowing 34 points while giving up a ton to the running back tandem of Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley.
The Patriots can utilize their running back duo of Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott to a similar level of success, both through the air and on the ground. In a divisional game in which the road Dolphins have all the momentum coming in, this feels like a trap for Miami.
Although the moneyline would be an attractive boost to our parlay, FanDuel’s -102 odds on this spread is our choice in what could conceivably be a one-point game in either direction between these AFC East foes.
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Mac Jones Over 237.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jones was one of the pleasant surprises of NFL Week 1 as he attempted 54 passes and threw for 316 yards in a close loss to the Eagles. The New England passing game was rather limited in 2022 under Jones, but the play-callers must have known that it would be necessary to let Mac air it out to try and keep pace with the Eagles.
Facing an explosive Dolphins offense, this week should be no different. Although the Dolphins were more generous to the ground game in Week 1 than they were to Justin Herbert’s passing efforts, I’m expecting another high-scoring environment in which Jones will utilize his running backs and tight ends in the short-to-intermediate passing game.
Jones’ passing total at FanDuel (237.5, -110 odds) is more attainable than the comparable alternate total at DraftKings (249.5, +105) without costing our total parlay odds much in the process.
Tyreek Hill 80+ receiving yards (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Hill had a lot to say during the offseason regarding his plans for the 2023 campaign, declaring on his podcast that he would break the 2,000 receiving yards barrier this year. In his first game, Hill backed up his big talk with an outing that put him on pace to crack 3,000 yards.
Regardless of coverage, Hill is going to get his. The fact that Jones actually seems competent distributing the football after a solid opening game suggests that Sunday night could be a similar scoring environment to the shootout the Dolphins played in Week 1.
DraftKings has an alternate total for Hill at 74.5 yards, but the -145 odds aren’t as attractive as the -120 price we get for Hill to record 80-plus receiving yards at FanDuel.
Dolphins-Patriots SGP picks made 09/17/2023 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
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