Bears vs. Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: NFL Preseason Week 3

The Chicago Bears are coming off the only shutout win of any team in the preseason thus far, and they look to continue that momentum against the Kansas City Chiefs. We break down this preseason Week 3 finale for both teams with our Bears vs. Chiefs prediction. 

The Chiefs range from 1.5- to 2.5-point home favorites with an O/U between 41.5 and 42.5 points across all the top sports betting sites. We make our best ATS and O/U wagers as part of our NFL preseason Week 3 predictions. 

This Bears-Chiefs matchup is the last of the four Friday night games and kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (FOX32 Chicago, NFL+).

🏈 Bears vs. Chiefs prediction & expert picks

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✅ Against the spread pick: Bears +2.5 (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ My best bet: Over 41.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Bears vs. Chiefs odds

Live updated odds from our best live betting sites. Follow the latest NFL scores for line history and matchup info.

🪧 Bears vs. Chiefs opening odds:

• Bears: +3 (-105)
• Chiefs: -3 (-115)

🔮 Bears vs. Chiefs ATS prediction

🐻 Bears +2.5 ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -118 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8.47)
🔢 Implied probability: 54.13%

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This line ticked down as much as 1.5 points from an opening number of -3, as Chicago dismantled the Buffalo Bills 38-0 in the biggest win of any team this preseason. We are buying the Bears heading into this matchup behind first-year head coach Ben Johnson, as this game clearly means more to him than veteran Chiefs head coach Andy Reid. 

Chicago built a 28-0 halftime lead last week, and it doesn’t matter much to us that the only Bills defensive starter that saw any playing time was safety Cole Bishop. The 371-47 total yardage discrepancy while Buffalo had third-string quarterback Mike White in the game is still eye-popping and speaks to the urgency the Bears are playing with.

Chicago beat Kansas City 34-21 in a similar spot last year in the third week of the preseason, without either team playing its starters much. And it does not seem to bother Reid that the Chiefs have lost five consecutive preseason games (three of them by 13-plus points), given the team’s regular-season success. 

The one point more in value we are getting at FanDuel while all the other top sports betting apps are at +1.5 is worth paying up slightly to -118.

📖 Check out our 2025 NFL preseason betting guide for the best betting strategies and full NFL preseason schedule.

💰 Bears vs. Chiefs best bet

⬆️ Over 41.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.09)
🔢 Implied probability: 52.38%

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Prior to last week, Unders in preseason games with a point total of 40 or more had cashed 58% of the time, including 12 of the previous 18 over the last four years.

But this preseason thus far has bucked several trends, and last week was no exception. Of the four games that had O/Us of 40-plus points, including the Chiefs-Seattle Seahawks game, three of them went over the projected total.

Overs are 23-9 in the preseason this year, and this game having the highest projected total of any in Week 3 suggests oddsmakers are tipping their hand that another shootout is in store, especially since the total is as high as 42.5 now at DraftKings.

Kansas City had several rookie defensive starters struggle in Seattle last week, and I expect more of that to continue against the offensive-minded Johnson.

I am backing this with five stars of confidence, and it is my preferred of the two plays compared to the point spread.

💰 Bears vs. Chiefs betting insights

Let's take a quick dive into who the betting public is backing for the Week 3 preseason clash between the Bears and Chiefs, courtesy of BetMGM.

This is one of the most-bet games of the slate for Week 3 of the presesason, and bettors are dialed in for Caleb Williams and the Bears to cover the spread, owning 60% of all wagers. Spoiler alert: we're firing this one up, too.

Yes, you're reading that right - the betting public is all over the Over in this matchup, garnering 81% of bets and 85% of the handle. That's our best play, too. Shall we squad ride this one?

The Bears are the second-most-bet underdog on the Week 3 slate, garnering 81% of the handle. Is the betting public getting this one right? We love the Bears at +2.5, so a little sprinkle on the moneyline doesn't hurt anyone.

🚑 Bears vs. Chiefs injuries

🏆 NFL betting odds pages

❓ NFL betting FAQs

What does the spread mean in betting NFL?

In NFL betting, the spread is the number of points a team is favored to win or lose by. It levels the playing field for bettors by giving an advantage or disadvantage in points. Bettors win if their pick covers the spread.

Where can I find top NFL betting odds?

Make sure you look at our top NFL betting sites to find the best odds for NFL Sunday. These sportsbooks include Caesars, BetMGM, bet365, FanDuel, and DraftKings.

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