Baker Mayfield MNF Player Prop Bets: Picks & Odds
Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers try to remain on the right side of .500 when they travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
- The Buccaneers have lost back-to-back games for the first time this season entering Week 9
- Tampa Bay’s odds to win the NFC South dwindled after being swept by the Falcons (Week 5, Week 8) for the first time since 2018
- Baker Mayfield leads the NFL in passing touchdowns and is second in passing yards
The Monday Night Football odds have the Chiefs as 9.5-point favorites with an O/U of 45.5 for this tilt airing on ESPN/ABC. I used that information while making my Buccaneers vs. Chiefs prediction, and we'll use it again to make our best-informed Baker Mayfield Monday Night Football player prop bets ahead of the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
I think we're in a good spot to keep the momentum going from my last two quarterback player prop articles involving Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers in primetime games, where I went a combined 4-2.
Baker Mayfield prop predictions for Monday Night Football
- Baker Mayfield Over 34.5 pass attempts (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Baker Mayfield Under 16.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Baker Mayfield longest pass completion Under 34.5 yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Baker Mayfield player props
NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Baker Mayfield Over 34.5 pass attempts (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
When one backs a quarterback to go over their projected pass attempts total with a five-star play, it is typically because they know that the quarterback’s team will be trailing or that they will likely not have success running the football. In this case with Mayfield and the Buccaneers, it’s both.
The Chiefs are not only 9.5-point favorites, but the Buccaneers defense has not stopped anyone this year. Tampa Bay has allowed opposing quarterbacks to score 36 or more fantasy points three times this year, so Tampa Bay will likely be in catch-up mode in what should be Patrick Mahomes’ most productive game of the season.
The Chiefs have allowed 82.3 rushing yards per game this season (second-fewest), and Mayfield has attempted 35 or more passes in three consecutive weeks and four of the previous five.
While the O/U has not increased, the juice has, as DraftKings had -115 odds earlier in the week to back the Over and now sits at -125. Thus, the best value is at bet365, where a winning $10 wager would pay out $18.33.
Best odds: -120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Baker Mayfield Under 16.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Mayfield has been held under this rushing total in half of his eight starts. But I am giving the Under a better than 52.38% implied probability of cashing (it is as high as 57.08% based on Caesars’ -133 odds) given that Kansas City’s pass rush is arguably the best Mayfield has faced all season, which should factor in negative rushing yards.
The Chiefs had their most productive game from a pass-rushing standpoint last week, recording five sacks. And that pass rush got even stronger after the trade for Joshua Uche, who had two sacks in six games with the Patriots.
bet365 is the only one of our top sports betting sites charging less than -113 odds to back the Under.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Baker Mayfield longest pass completion Under 34.5 yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Mayfield has thrown the ball 95 times over the last two weeks but has not completed a 30-yard pass in that span. With this being his second straight game without game-breaking receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, I expect Mayfield to take the safer route and mainly utilize tight end Cade Otton. Philip Wood mentions this utilization in his Buccaneers vs. Chiefs player props.
This is a three-star play, as Kansas City allows 0.383 passing points per attempt (12th) and 6.7 yards per pass attempt (ninth). A $10 winning wager at BetMGM’s -110 odds would net $9.09 in profits.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Buccaneers vs. Chiefs odds
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- How to watch: ESPN/ABC
- Weather: 63 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph S
- Favorite: Chiefs -9.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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