We’re looking at a rebound showing with our anytime and first touchdown scorer predictions for Week 3 based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps. In Week 2, our start in this column was interrupted, but the tide is ebbing and flowing in a hurry on the touchdown prop market, and we're ripe for a rebound.
It was a profitable opening week for our anytime and first touchdown scorer props. However, we handed most of it right back in Week 2. The Thursday Night Football Week 3 edition didn’t help, either.
Following the Week 3 Sunday slate and Tank Bigsby's anytime score at +260 odds, we're back in the black with a 0.1-unit profit on the season. Let's try to get some separation on the ledger with a strong performance from Monday Night Football's doubleheader.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions: Week 3
Eagles vs. Buccaneers anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Cade Otton, Buccaneers, TE (+450 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Philadelphia Eagles have given up an NFL-high three receiving touchdowns to tight ends through two weeks. Their 17 receptions surrendered to the position also rank as the most in the league and their 171 yards allowed are the second most through two weeks.
Though Tampa Bay Buccaneers second-year tight end Cade Otton has a modest eight receptions on nine targets for 60 yards this season, he's played 97% of the snaps both weeks. He scored two touchdowns in his rookie campaign and has two first down receptions this year, to show some faith from QB Baker Mayfield.
The Bucs are 5-point underdogs at home and should need to lean heavily on the pass against the high-powered Eagles. Be sure to grab the +450 odds from FanDuel with DraftKings offering a market-low of +250.
Texans vs. Jaguars anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Tank Bigsby, Jaguars, RB (+260 via DraftKings) ✔️
Tank Bigsby, the Jaguars third-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, scored his first career touchdown while receiving seven carries in his team's 31-21 Week 1 win over the Indianapolis Colts. Though he didn't get a touch in the Jags' Week 2 loss to the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, the Week 3 game script against the rival Houston Texans should be much more favorable.
Jacksonville is the third-biggest favorite on Week 3's Sunday slate with a spread of -8.5. With Bigsby the clear No. 2 back for the Jaguars with 19% of the offensive snaps played last week, he should get more run in Week 3 as starter Travis Etienne is afforded more of a break once this game is safely in hand for the Jags.
What's most important for our purposes is the discrepancy in pricing for Bigsby to score an anytime touchdown on Sunday. DraftKings leads the way with +260 odds while FanDuel has the market-low of +180 bettors should be sure to avoid when shopping across our NFL prop betting sites.
Giants vs. 49ers anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Kyle Juszczyk, 49ers, FB (+1100 via DraftKings) ✖️
The 49ers are 10.5-point favorites on Thursday in what's widely expected to be an even bigger blowout than that spread suggests. San Francisco has already logged a 23-point win in 2023, and the Giants were down 20 points at halftime to the hapless Arizona Cardinals in Week 2. The Niners won't cough up a lead like that.
Running back Christian McCaffrey has been an absolute workhorse through two games, and he played every offensive snap during a Week 2 win over the Los Angeles Rams. This matchup should be the perfect opportunity for head coach Kyle Shanahan to give McCaffrey a bit of a breather.
Fullback Kyle Juszczyk was the only other Niners back to get Week 2 playing time, and he was utilized for 62% of the offensive snaps in Week 1. He hasn't touched the ball yet in 2023, but Juszczyk scored at least two touchdowns in each of the past three seasons with San Francisco, with a high of six in 2020. He was given 20-plus targets in each of the previous nine campaigns, and that versatility could be on display near the goal line in what everyone's projecting as a pseudo-bye for San Francisco.
We're getting the +1100 odds from DraftKings with Caesars offering a market-low of +700.
First touchdown scorer predictions
Rams vs. Bengals first touchdown scorer prediction: Kyren Williams, Rams, RB (+650 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
The Cincinnati Bengals enter their Monday night date with the Los Angeles Rams at a surprising and disappointing 0-2 and with QB Joe Burrow questionable, at best, to suit up for Week 3. Should Cincinnati opt to play it safe and ultimately sit Burrow while risking an 0-3 start, backup Jake Browning is expected to get the nod for his first meaningful NFL action.
Our first touchdown pick for this matchup will go ahead and assume Burrow sits. In that case, expect the Bengals' offense to start slow with Browning at the helm and needing time to gel with the likes of Ja'Marr Chase.
Turning to the Rams and what would likely be a clock-control type of game plan in this scenario, we're jumping on these inflated odds for Kyren Williams to get his fifth touchdown of the season either by air or ground. BetMGM and DraftKings are aligned on these +650 odds for Williams to score the first touchdown, while Caesars has a market-low offering of +420.
Cowboys vs. Cardinals first touchdown scorer prediction: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys, WR (+600 via FanDuel) ✖️
The Dallas Cowboys are the biggest road favorites on Sunday's slate with a comfortable 12.5-point spread against the lowly Arizona Cardinals. A long-held belief of fantasy football roster managers is to shy away from star players in matchups like this, and while we're using similar reasoning to arrive at our Bigsby prediction above, CeeDee Lamb is sure to get his in this matchup while helping to build the Cowboys' lead.
My favorite thing about the first touchdown market for this game is that we can safely ignore the Cardinals' side of the equation as they face the NFL's No. 1 defense through two weeks. Lamb, the Cowboys' No. 1 receiver, has 220 yards but no touchdowns on the season. QB Dak Prescott should look to rectify that in this favorable spot.
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