Free NFL Picks: Predictions & Best Bets

Kenneth Walker III went nuts in Week 2 at Pittsburgh (13 carries, 105 yards). But in his two other games against the 49ers and Saints, the Seahawks' running back turned 26 carries into just 56 total yards — that's a pathetic 2.1 yards per rush.

Arizona's defense has been stout against the run, yielding just 76.3 yards per game (fourth-best in the NFL). Bet on that front seven to shine again Thursday night and put the clamps on Walker.

Arizona QB Kyler Murray has already compiled 107 rushing yards on just 20 carries. He's been consistent, too, gaining 38, 32 and 37 yards in the first three games.

With running back James Conner (foot) done for the season, I expect Murray to be even more involved in the running game going forward. Take note, too, that Murray has hit the over on his rushing prop in five of his last six games.

Sam Darnold has fallen short of this passing projection in two of three games this season — barely so last week, when he had 218 yards in a rout of the Saints. Go back 11 months, though, and Seattle's quarterback has topped 230 air yards in 13 of his last 16 contests.

So I'm betting on Darnold to carve up Arizona's secondary, which has given up the third-most passing yards this season — despite facing Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young and Mac Jones.

The Cardinals, who had the 16th-ranked offense via PFF before playing the 49ers, struggled mightily in San Francisco. They mustered 265 yards of total offense and didn't score a touchdown until midway through the fourth quarter.

The Seahawks open as a 1.5-point betting favorite over the Cardinals after blowing out the Saints a week ago. Seattle feels like one of the most undervalued teams in the league in my view, and I'll gladly take the points on Mike Macdonald's bunch until the market corrects itself.

We're giving Sam Darnold and the Seahawks the early lean here, as the defense has been pretty good through three weeks of the season. Darnold is slowly becoming the quarterback we saw in Minnesota, too.

Through three weeks, Steelers running back Jaylen Warren leads the NFL in yards after the catch over expected and is second in missed tackles forced.

I expect Warren to again be heavily involved in Pittsburgh’s passing attack out of the backfield against a blitz-happy Brian Flores Vikings defense. 

Entering last week, the Steelers defense had recorded just three sacks, allowed 149.5 rushing yards per game, and 31.5 points per game. After recording five sacks, limiting the Patriots to 119 rushing and 4.1 yards per carry, and forcing them into their first five-turnover game since 2008, the veteran group should be brimming with confidence heading overseas.

I have enough faith in Aaron Rodgers as an underdog against a quarterback who, aside from last week's dominant display over the hapless Bengals, hasn't played meaningful football in a few years. Nothing against Carson Wentz, but playing Pittsburgh represents a sterner challenge. 

The Vikings' defense has only allowed two touchdowns in the last two weeks, and they're going to shut down an offense that managed just 203 yards against the Patriots in Week 2. As long as Carson Wentz plays a relatively clean game, the Vikings should win this comfortably.

The Vikings open as a 1-point betting favorite over the Steelers in this neutral-site matchup in Dublin, Ireland. Minnesota has already signaled that Carson Wentz will start in place of J.J. McCarthy, though I care much more about the way the Vikings' defense has played of late. This feels like a rough spot for Aaron Rodgers and Co. after a narrow win last week in New England.

We're talking about a massive number here. That said, the New Orleans Saints looked like a college team in Seattle. And let's not forget that some key defensive players, along with Zach Charbonnet, didn't play for the Seahawks. I can't see things improving for the Saints against the Buffalo Bills home wagon. 

The Bills open as a 15.5-point betting favorite over the Saints in one of the most lopsided matchups of the 2025 NFL season. I usually shy away from laying this many points on any team, but the Bills are taking no prisoners this year as they seek to end their title drought. Godspeed, Saints bettors.

The Texans had a great chance to steal a road win against the Jaguars last week, but were undone by three turnovers in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, this line still ballooned from an opening number of 5.5 to more than a touchdown, as the Titans are amid the longest active losing streak in the NFL (nine games).

The Houston Texans' offense has been woeful. However, their defense is excellent, boasting one of the league's best pass rushes. That will be troublesome for Cam Ward on the road, who leads a Titans' offense that has been one of the worst in the league through three weeks. Houston should do just enough. 

The Texans open as a 7.5-point betting favorite over the Titans in an AFC South clash between two teams seeking their first win. I'm frankly shocked to see Houston laying more than a touchdown given the state of its offensive line, so I'm grabbing this number before it inevitably moves toward Tennessee.

The Detroit Lions put on a show in Baltimore against the Ravens. Even against a defense as formidable and aggressive as the Cleveland Browns, I feel the Lions have too many weapons, especially at home. The Browns' offense will not be able to keep up. 

The Lions open as an 8.5-point betting favorite over the Browns in a rare meeting between two of the NFL's most storied (and troubled) franchises. Cleveland's defense might be the most underappreciated unit in the league, but its offense is abysmal enough to bet on a double-digit win for Detroit.

Whether Jayden Daniels plays will be crucial in deciding this spread, but I'm comfortable enough in backing the Washington Commanders even if last season's Offensive Rookie of the Year is unavailable. Atlanta's offense has been somewhat effective at home, but it's coming off a horrendous outing in Carolina. 

The Commanders open as a 3-point betting favorite over the Falcons with Jayden Daniels (knee) expected to be back for Washington in Week 4. It's easy to fade the Falcons to oblivion after last week's rough outing, but Atlanta looked like a force a week earlier - I'm buying the dip on the home 'dogs.

This is a very disrespectful opening number for a Falcons team that impressed on Sunday Night Football against the Vikings in Week 2. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (knee) could be facing a multi-week absence, and the Falcons are a 5.5-point road favorite against the Panthers in Week 3. This is an early value play, as I expect Atlanta to close as the favorite.

The Buccaneers have played with fire each week, as Baker Mayfield is now one of two quarterbacks to lead a fourth-quarter comeback in each of the first three games of a season since 1950. Now Tampa Bay has injury issues across its offensive line and will be without the services of wide receiver Mike Evans, and that has me expecting it to be dealt its first loss.

While the Philadelphia Eagles got luckier than a lotto winner last week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been ravaged by the injury bug. Not only has their offensive line been impacted, but they'll also be without Mike Evans. The Eagles, meanwhile, find a way to grind out games better than any team in the league. 

The Eagles open as a 3-point betting favorite over the Buccaneers in a matchup between divisional winners last season. This bet is less about Philly's slow start last week and more about my belief that Tampa Bay is a tough team to close out - especially on the road following a draining win for the Eagles.

The Panthers are coming off their first shutout victory since 2020. But perhaps we should not have been shocked by that result, as quarterback Bryce Young is now 3-1 against the Falcons and 4-23 versus all other teams.

A few critical mistakes sealed the Patriots' fate against the Steelers last week. However, they played well for the most part. The Carolina Panthers have struggled on the road, and they're not good enough in the air to take advantage of the Patriots' most vulnerable defensive facet: their pass defense. 

The Patriots open as a 4.5-point betting favorite over the Panthers in just their sixth meeting since the Super Bowl in 2004. Carolina is riding high after blowing out the Falcons in a game that went the Panthers' way from the jump, but they looked like the NFL's worst team before that. Don't buy it.

Take a moment to compare these teams' quarterbacks. The hottest ticket in the NFL right now, Justin Herbert, faces a has-been who will clearly be replaced by Jaxson Dart soon, possibly even this week. In addition, the Giants are 3-7 ATS at home in their last 10.  

The Chargers open as a 5.5-point betting favorite over the Giants in a matchup between a 3-0 contender and an 0-3 doormat. Do we know who will be under center for New York - and does it matter? Los Angeles looks like a legitimate force on both sides of the ball, and I'd expect a comfortable win at home.

Brock Purdy might return to action, but the 49ers are still dealing with a rash of injuries, the lastest of which to Nick Bosa. The Jacksonville Jaguars have won two games despite their offensive inconsistencies. If they can iron out the kinks, particularly in terms of dropped passes, they should keep this one close.

The 49ers open as a 4.5-point betting favorite over the Jaguars after surviving the Cardinals last week en route to a 3-0 start. I'm not convinced that San Francisco is the better team in this matchup, and I keep waiting for Jacksonville to catch a break - don't be surprised if the Jags win this outright.

The Colts are about to face a big step up in class against a Rams defense that held Saquon Barkley to 2.3 yards per rush last week, his fewest in a game with the Eagles. If Los Angeles similarly stymies the league’s leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor, I do not yet fully trust Jones to light up the scoreboard with his arm alone, especially outdoors.

This is where the Indianapolis Colts' unbeaten run ends. The Los Angeles Rams played well enough to beat the defending champs in Philly but were undone by a special teams catastrophe. Look for Sean McVay's team to rebound against Danny Dimes and Co. 

The Rams open as a 3.5-point betting favorite over the Colts after blowing a 19-point lead against the Eagles in Week 3. I take no pleasure in fading the undefeated Colts on a weekly basis, but this is Indy's toughest test yet against an L.A. side that will be eager to erase the bitter taste from last week's loss.

This wager plays off fellow Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze’s success. Odunze has four touchdowns, which is tied for the most by a Bears player through the first three games of a season.

With defenses needing to pay more attention to Odunze, I expect DJ Moore to capitalize on one-on-one matchups. This is a great matchup, as the Raiders have allowed the third-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season.

Pete Carroll’s teams’ success has always been predicated on running the football and playing good defense. But Raiders rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has 47 carries and none for 20-plus yards. Meanwhile, the Raiders defense just allowed 41 points to a Commanders team that had scored 39 points through the first two weeks, and was playing with a backup quarterback who hadn’t started a game since 2022.

Did the Chicago Bears turn a corner against the Dallas Cowboys? While I won't go that far, I'm even less confident in Las Vegas after witnessing its abomination against the Jayden Daniels-less Washington Commanders. 

The Raiders open as a 1.5-point betting favorite over the Bears in a compelling clash between 1-2 teams with new head coaches. I'm a bit surprised that Chicago isn't a consensus road favorite after a bounce-back effort for Ben Johnson and Co. last week, especially with Las Vegas looking listless for two straight weeks.

The Ravens run defense was exposed in the Week 3 loss to the Lions. Detroit’s 207 rushing yards between the tackles was the most for the Lions or against the Ravens since 2006. And Baltimore’s 224 rush yards allowed overall was the team’s most since 2017. The good news for Baltimore is that Kansas City is not built to take advantage of that weakness. 

I have several concerns about Baltimore's defense without Kyle Van Noy and Nnamdi Madubuike, but Lamar Jackson is primed for a bounce-back game. The Ravens have too many offensive weapons, and as long as Derrick Henry holds onto the ball, they will be able to outscore a Chiefs offense that lacks a ground threat and has looked disjointed at times. 

The Chiefs' offense is disjointed and single-dimensional. Even if Madubuike and Noy don't play, the Chiefs' offense, tied for 19th in DVOA, doesn't scare teams like it used to. Devoid of a ground attack, aside from Patrick Mahomes' scampering ability, Kansas City's offense is too predictable. 

The Ravens open as a 2.5-point betting favorite over the Chiefs in a rematch of last week's Week 1 thriller at Arrowhead Stadium. Lamar Jackson has struggled to get the best of Patrick Mahomes over the years, but Baltimore looks like the best team in the NFL - that's enough for me to lay a field goal in this matchup.

Packers wide receiver Matthew Golden has an excellent chance to score his first NFL touchdown this week. He faces a Cowboys defense that ranks 31st in yards per play allowed (6.5), and has allowed an NFL-worst 13 plays of at least 25 yards. 

In zone defense this year, the Cowboys rank 29th in completion percentage allowed (77%), last in yards per attempt (10.4), last in touchdown percentage (7.8%), and last in Total QBR (93). 

Green Bay threw away victory in Cleveland, but it won't do the same in Dallas against one of the league's worst defenses. The Packers' defense, meanwhile, will be effective at limiting Dak Prescott, especially as CeeDee Lamb is unavailable. 

The Packers open as a 5.5-point betting favorite over the Cowboys in Micah Parsons' return to Dallas after a blockbuster trade late last month. I don't love the number here, but I do think Green Bay is miles ahead of Dallas on the field - even after a lazy finish to last week's loss. Expect a strong response in Week 4.

Quarterback Jordan Love performed much better against zone than man coverage last year. That is significant since Dallas entered last week using zone on 86% of opponents’ dropbacks (the most in the NFL) while allowing 283.0 passing yards per game in that coverage.

Green Bay's defense is just too damn good. I'll also bet the house that Micah Parsons comes away with a couple of sacks in this one. Look for the Packers to win by 10.

The Dolphins allowed pressure on 49% of dropbacks last week, while Tua Tagovailoa averaged just 4.3 yards per attempt. Miami’s offense also could look rusty after a long 10-day layoff, and it is just 5-6 SU when owning a rest advantage over its opponent since 2022.

There's no way the Dolphins should be betting favorites in this game. The Jets almost took one away from one of the best teams in the NFL in the Bucs in Week 3, and the Dolphins backed their way into a 10-point loss on prime time against the Bills. Tyrod Taylor helps this New York offense, which is going up against a defense allowing 32 points per game - the most in the NFL.

Which winless team gets off the schneid on MNF? The New York Jets were lucky to keep things close in Tampa Bay, while the Miami Dolphins at least showed some fight in Buffalo. The Dolphins should be fresher after a more extended break, and the jury is still out on whether Justin Fields will play. Even if he does, I'm backing Miami. 

The Dolphins open as a 2.5-point betting favorite over the Jets in a prime-time battle between winless AFC East squads. Even after an inspired effort in last week's loss to the Bills, I haven't seen enough from Miami to lay points on the 'Fins as a favorite - though I'd rather bet the Under than trust either offense.

The Jets scored 27 in Week 3, but they only had six points entering the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the Dolphins' passing attack is averaging just 192.0 yards per game and will struggle against a defense allowing just 207.3 air yards per contest.

Jake Browning has his moments, but Week 3 was not one of them. In fact, it was an unmitigated disaster after getting blown out by the Vikings. He's about to take on an even better defense in Denver. Broncos win big.

I'm all over the Broncos in this MNF tilt. Jake Browning, if he's not benched, is not the answer. Everyone, including the Bengals know that. He has thrown the most picks (5) in less than two full games. Meanwhile, the Broncos will be seething after two walk-off defeats. They'll bounce back in emphatic style. 

The Broncos open as a 7.5-point betting favorite over the Bengals after both teams suffered tough losses last week. Cincinnati was blown out in Jake Browning's first start of the season, but we've seen him lead this offense to impressive heights before - a touchdown margin feels much too wide in this matchup.

Neither of these offenses have yet to live up to lofty preseason expectations. Denver gained just nine first downs last week while Cincinnati managed only 12.