Canada vs. Spain Predictions, Picks & Odds: FIBA World Cup

Canada and Spain face a win-or-go-home prospect when they face off in second-round FIBA World Cup action on Sunday morning. Here is our top Canada vs. Spain prediction based on the best FIBA World Cup odds.

It's do-or-die time for Canada as it fumbled the bag against Brazil in its first game of the second round, losing 69-65. I'd say I was happy about the result considering we bet on Brazil +19.5, but I also have a futures ticket on Canada winning the FIBA World Cup at +2000. 

Canada wasn't the only one who suffered an upset in its opening game of the second round, as Spain lost 74-69 to Latvia, a team that Canada defeated by 26 points in the first round. With both Canada and Spain losing their first game of the second round, it has now set up a must-win scenario for both teams in order to advance to the quarterfinals of the FIBA World Cup.

Can Canada defeat FIBA's No. 1 ranked team in the world, Spain, and advance to the quarterfinals, or more importantly in this scenario, cover the spread?

Here is our best Canada vs. Spain prediction for Sunday's FIBA World Cup matchup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Canada vs. Spain predictions: FIBA World Cup

Canada -5.5 (-112 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

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Usually, when we're evaluating the odds tied to international games, we're working with a bit of an unknown because teams always have different rosters and they could go years without playing each other. That's why we've already seen several big underdogs on the spread just win the game outright on the money line so far in this tournament; it's hard to handicap.

Fortunately for us, with this matchup, there are fewer unknowns because we just saw Canada and Spain square off in an exhibition game a couple of weeks ago. Canada won this game in overtime, in Spain back then, and this time they will be playing on a neutral court with a little more desperation. Canada has to win this game to advance to the quarterfinals and keep their 2024 Paris Olympic dreams alive.

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In the exhibition game, Spain struggled to stop any two-man actions between Kelly Olynyk and Dwight Powell. The two Canadian bigs were able to generate a lot of offense for each other at the rim, with Olynyk more in a playmaking role. Spain also struggled to stop RJ Barrett from getting downhill to the rim, and they had no defenders who could keep Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in front of them, as he was breaking ankles left and right.

After losing to Brazil, in a game where offense was very difficult for Canada and a lot of pressure was put on Gilgeous-Alexander to create, I think we will see Canada have a much easier time finding offense against Spain.

When it comes to defense for Canada, they have players like Dillon Brooks and Lu Dort who can apply pressure on the perimeter, and with such high stakes for Canada as a country, that defensive desire should be at an all-time high.

This isn't the Spain you're thinking of from years past; they are still well-coached but don't have the NBA talent they once had. With a -5.5 (-112) available at BetRivers, Canada is the side I'm backing in a do-or-die game for both countries.

See also our USA vs. Lithuania predictions for Sunday morning.

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Canada vs. Spain best odds

BetRivers (-112)

BetRivers was the first to post a line for this game, and they initially offered Canada at -4.5 (-112), but that quickly disappeared once everyone else opened with Canada at -6.5. While BetRivers made an adjustment to their line, they are still offering the best price on Canada at -5.5 (-112), as all of our other best sports betting apps are trading Canada as a 6.5-point favorite with comparable juice.

If you're a Canada backer in the FIBA World Cup, it's become pretty obvious that you'll want a BetRivers account. They have consistently had some of the best prices on futures for Canada and on the spread.

Make sure you're getting the best Canada vs. Spain odds with our BetRivers promo code!

Canada vs. Spain odds analysis

BetRivers initially opened Canada as a 4.5-point favorite, and they were the only one of our best sports betting sites to offer that low of a number. All of our other best sportsbooks opened Canada as a 6.5-point favorite, and this quickly caused BetRivers to adjust their line to Canada -5.5.

Depending on where you shop, we have also seen the total open at a wide array of numbers: bet365 has it at 167.5, Caesars at 168.5, and BetRivers at 169.5. As the game approaches, expect this number to settle into place and find a consensus.

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Canada vs. Spain game info

• When: Sunday, Sep. 3, 9:30 a.m. ET.
• Where: Indonesia Arena, Jakarta, Indonesia
• How to watch: Sportsnet

Canada-Spain pick made 09/01/2023 at 12:50 p.m. ET.

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