2022 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Expert Picks and PGA Tour Bet Slips

Celebrities and PGA Tour pros alike will tee it up at this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and our golf experts offer up their top picks.

The 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will look a bit different as it returns to a three-course rotation and a 54-hole cut. The pro-am portion was abandoned last year amid COVID-19 restrictions. Defending champion Daniel Berger, who had been one of the betting favorites, withdrew Wednesday night due to a back injury.

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Patrick Cantlay enters the week as the betting favorite and the top-ranked golfer in the field at No. 4 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). The field was dealt a blow on Tuesday when Will Zalatoris had to withdraw due to a positive COVID-19 test following a runner-up finish at last week's Farmers Insurance Open.

Below, our PGA Tour experts offer up their top AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks and predictions (picks made before Berger withdrew).

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Expert Picks

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SEE ALSO: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks and Preview

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks to Win

Griffin (+4500 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Griffin’s odds at DraftKings have dropped from +5500 earlier in the week. He still remains a value there with odds to win as low as +3300 at BetMGM and Barstool Sportsbook. That’s a difference in implied win probability of 2.17% to 2.94%.

Griffin skipped this event last year, but he tied for ninth in 2020 with 1.68 Strokes Gained: Putting per round on Pebble Beach Golf Links. He enters this week 86th in the OWGR following a T-30 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T-3 at The American Express the week before. He averaged 1.16 SG: Approach at Torrey Pines and 1.42 SG: Approach at the Pete Dye Stadium Course.

He has struggled with the short game to start the 2021-22 PGA Tour season, but he’s gaining strokes on approach and on the greens. Griffin averaged 1.68 SG: Putting on Pebble Beach GL in 2020. This tournament often rewards the week’s hottest putter, and Griffin can fit that mold while pairing it with excellent current form with his irons. - McLaren

Fitzpatrick (+3500 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Despite winning seven times on the DP World Tour, Fitzpatrick has yet to win on the PGA Tour. Last season, he came close to victory when he finished T-4 at the RBC Heritage and T-5 at the Genesis Invitational. Though he has never won on the PGA Tour, he has twice won the most prestigious event on the DP World Tour. In 2016 and 2020, Fitzpatrick won the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai.

In picking outright winners of tournaments, my model nearly always favors players who rank high in SG: Approach. My preference is to support players who are excellent ball strikers rather than players who distinguish themselves through putting. At Pebble Beach, however, I believe putting is more significant than at most other golf courses.

When it comes to SG: Tee-to-Green, Fitzpatrick performs reasonably well. For the 2020-21 season, he averaged 0.63 SG: Tee-to-Green. Fitzpatrick possesses a strong putting stroke, which is one of the reasons I expect him to do well this week at Pebble Beach. He finished fourth on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting last season.

Since he has not played many events this year, there is not much information about his game at this stage. In addition, he did not play in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am last season as he chose to compete in Saudi Arabia. The combination of all these factors leads me to believe he is being overlooked in a weak field. I love his +3500 odds at Caesars. Fitzpatrick is a player I expect to win on the PGA Tour this year and make some noise in the Race to Dubai. - Metler

McNealy (+2500 via BetMGM)

McNealy will likely be a popular pick this week. The 26-year-old has excellent course history, finishing as the runner-up last season and T-5 in 2020.

Over the past 24-rounds played at Pebble Beach, he ranks second with 3.0 total strokes gained per round, trailing only Berger.

He also loves playing in his home state of California. According to Justin Ray, McNealy is 99-under par the last three years in the Golden State. 

McNealy has a prowess for putting on Poa Annua greens, as well. A challenge for many in the field, he ranks fifth with 15.5 SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds on the surface - this will only help him on these tremendously fast greens. 

McNealy finished in the top-30 in six of his last eight starts; between his hot play and course history, it won’t be surprising to see him contending on Sunday. - Anderson

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Long Shots

Smotherman (+27000 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Smotherman, 27, moved from 347th to 292nd in the OWGR with a career-best T-11 finish last week. He missed the cut in three of his previous five PGA Tour events with a top finish of T-40 at The RSM Classic, after winning on the Korn Ferry Tour last summer.

While it could be easily dismissed as a one-off performance, FanDuel is asleep at the wheel with these odds. DraftKings is offering a market-low of +11000 for the win.

The field at Pebble Beach is considerably weaker than last week’s. The courses are also considerably easier than Torrey Pines South. Smotherman ranked second in the field among those who made the cut last week with 1.98 SG: Approach per round. He can lean on that strength again this week. - McLaren

Clark (+12500 via PointsBet)

The former Oregon Duck and 2017 Pac-12 Champion remains winless on the PGA Tour. At the 2020 Bermuda Championship, Clark came within inches of winning his first event when he lost in a playoff to Brian Gay.

Clark had a difficult conclusion to the 2021 season, as he missed seven cuts in a row. Although the campaign ended in a disappointing manner, he has been much more consistent to start the 2021-22 season. He has made six consecutive cuts and finished 13th at The American Express. This finish is noteworthy since La Quinta Country Club profiles very similarly to Pebble Beach Golf Links.

I was attracted to Clark due to his performance on the greens this season. Clark has averaged 0.76 SG: Putting and gained strokes on the greens in each of his last five events.

Clark's distance off the tee is also a strong feature of his game. At 314.4 yards per drive, he ranks 11th on the PGA Tour in average driving distance. Despite hitting the ball far, he does not rank highly in SG: Off-the-Tee due to his poor accuracy. His accuracy will not be as much of a detriment this week, particularly when playing at Spyglass Hill Golf Course.

Clark's most favorable number can be found at PointsBet, where he is +12500. He is much shorter at several other sportsbooks, such as BetMGM, which lists him at +8000. - Metler

Perez (+8000 via FanDuel)

Perez has a love/hate relationship with Pebble Beach. Nearly twenty years ago, he held the lead in the final round of his tournament, only to squander it on the back nine. 

However, he has had some solid finishes since, finishing fourth, seventh, and T-26 last year. 

Perez enters in solid form, following a T-6 finish last week, where he gained 7 strokes on approach over four rounds. That's a key statistic at Pebble Beach. 

He also putts well on Poa Annua greens, ranking inside the top 20 on Tour in strokes gained on this surface. Additionally, his rank of 17th SG: Total in the last 24 rounds at Pebble Beach is promising. 

Riding some momentum from last week, don’t be afraid to sprinkle on Perez outright and other derivative markets this weekend. - Anderson

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Top Matchup Picks

Jason Day (+100) vs. Cameron Tringale (via DraftKings)

Day has become too expensive as an outright play this week with his odds dropping from +2000 at opening to +1800 as of Wednesday morning. However, the value remains at even money in this matchup against Tringale.

Both golfers tied for third last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. While Tringale was better in the short game, Day was far superior on the greens, and he averaged 0.38 SG: Off-the-Tee per round, while Tringale lost 0.13 strokes per round in that domain. Tringale moved inside the top 50 of the OWGR, while Day, a former world No. 1, vaulted from No. 129 to No. 83.

Day has the superior course history on all three venues being used this week and isn’t deserving of the underdog tag. - McLaren

Power (-110) vs. Spieth (via DraftKings)

A twelve-time winner on the PGA Tour, Spieth's last victory came at the 2021 Valero Texas Open, and he is 15th in the OWGR entering this week. In 23 rounds played at Pebble Beach, he has averaged 1.58 strokes gained per round. He is expected to be a popular pick for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am because of his course history.

Power has won only one PGA Tour event and is not as well known. That victory came at the 2021 Barbasol Championship. To start the 2021-22 season, Power is averaging 1.44 SG: Total. He is one of the few golfers on the PGA Tour gaining strokes in all key categories.

The form of Power is far superior to that of Spieth. Spieth missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he lost strokes in every single category. Power, on the other hand, has recorded four straight top-20 finishes and just finished T-14 at The American Express. The books may be attempting to catch bettors sleeping on this matchup and trying to entice them to place wagers on Spieth, who has a strong course history and is considered a brand name. However, based on recent form, Power should be the favorite. - Metler

Griffin (-120) vs. Bezuidenhout (via DraftKings)

Griffin comes in fresh off a round of 65 at Torrey Pines last Sunday. 

He finished in the top 10 in three of his last six events, and he gained 1.68 strokes per round putting at this event in 2020. 

His iron play is near elite and is solid on approach – ranking T-45 on tour this season. Pebble Beach is short, measuring under 7,200 yards. Griffin ranks fourth in strokes gained total on these courses and should prevail over the inconsistent Bezuidenhout. - Anderson

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Top Prop Picks

Top European: Aaron Rai (+650 via PointsBet)

We’re backing Rai in this watered-down European pool this week, despite running the risk of being a week late to the party. The Englishman tied for sixth last week to share the position with Justin Rose. Rose leads this group once again, with Fitzpatrick and Power also slotting in ahead of Rai.

Rai gained strokes in all key fields last week, including 2.09 SG: Tee-to-Green per round. Rose lost strokes off the tee, Power took the week off, and Fitzpatrick hasn’t played a full-field PGA Tour event since the fall. Power was the only one of the above to play this event last year, and he missed the cut. Let’s lean on the hot (gloved) hands.

Top Australian: Jason Day (+140 via BetMGM)

The former world No. 1 is coming off of an impressive third-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has not won on the PGA Tour since the Wells Fargo Championship in 2018 and enters the week 83rd in the OWGR.

While Day's +140 seems relatively short at first glance, once you review the other Australians in the field, your opinion changes. Last season, Min Woo Lee finished plus-5 at Pebble Beach on his way to missing the cut. While Matt Jones had a stellar third-place performance at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, he has struggled with his irons and has lost strokes in SG: Approach the last two tournaments.

Despite not winning a tournament since 2018, Day has been successful at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am even during his most difficult seasons. Since 2018, his poorest performance at Pebble was a T-7 in four attempts. Day is a superb putter and this is a course on which he excels.

The best number on Day is from BetMGM, where he is +140 to be the top Australian. PointsBet and DraftKings have Day at +115 for this wager. - Metler

Satoshi Kodaira top-20 finish (+600 via DraftKings)

Kodaira has played only one event this season, finishing T-12 at the Sony Open after shooting 64-65-65 over his final three rounds. 

He hasn’t fared well at Pebble, missing the cut in his only two appearances. However, he gained strokes in multiple ball-striking categories. So, it wasn’t all bad. 

Kodaira won the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town in 2018, which mirrors the short coastal layouts here. His irons and short game are perfect for an event like this, and it won’t be a surprise to see him finish near the top of the field. - Anderson

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Top Fades

Jordan Spieth

Spieth had a streak of 20 consecutive made cuts come to a screeching halt last week at Torrey Pines. He shot a second-round plus-6 to miss the cut for the first time since last year’s Farmers Insurance Open.

Spieth has said this week that he’s battling a stomach illness, but it’s the manner in which he missed the cut last week that’s of much greater concern than the poor result. He lost strokes in all key fields, including 2.50 strokes lost from tee to green and 2.25 strokes lost on the greens per round.

While he tied for third in this event last year, we’re not rushing out to back an immediate about-face in his game.

Kevin Kisner 

Kisner finished in the top 10 at the Sony Open and the Sentry Tournament of Champions. On the season, he averages 0.57 SG: Total per round and is 36th in the OWGR entering the week

When taking into account the type of player you are getting, Kisner's odds are just too short to me. This is not someone I would invest in at +4000 to win. He is a solid player, but his price point is not appealing to me this week.

It is all about fading the number provided to us by the sportsbooks. Due to his performance in Hawaii, I believe his odds are slightly shorter than they should be. - Metler

Matt Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick is a premier golfer, ranked 25th in the world, and expected to break out on America in 2022. However, there are a few reasons to be wary of this short number. 

For starters, he hasn’t played a competitive round in two months. He’s publicly stated he’s working through a few swing changes, which take time to iron out. His course history isn’t spectacular either — missing the cut in his first trip here and finishing 60th on his second try. 

This event is typically a birdie fest, and Fitzpatrick plays best on challenging courses or in inclement weather. Neither are expected, so I expect him to keep tinkering and get acclimated to the new season. 

We’ll have plenty of opportunities to bet on Fitzpatrick at better numbers throughout the 2022 season. Lay off this time around. - Anderson

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