🏀 Aces vs. Dream Prediction: WNBA Picks for Sunday, May 17
Sunday's four-game WNBA slate will get started with a showdown between the Atlanta Dream (2-0) and the Las Vegas Aces (3-1) at 1:30 p.m. ET from State Farm Arena in Atlanta on Peacock.
This is a matchup between two WNBA championship odds contenders, and the spread is narrowly in Atlanta's favor. My Aces vs. Dream prediction sides with the home team in what could be a statement game on Sunday.
🏀 Aces vs. Dream prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Dream ML (-117 via BetRivers) | 1u → 0.85u | The Dream hold the rest advantage and are playing at home in this matinee matchup. |
| Under 172.5 (-110 via bet365) | 1u → 0.91u | Since 2024, the Aces are 29-27 to the Under after just one day off. |
| Jackie Young Under 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125 via the TheScore Bet) | 1u → 0.8u | Young failed to clear this line in 12 of the Aces' 17 losses last year. |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.56 units
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🏆 Who will win Aces vs. Dream?
I predict a five-point win for the Dream, who can make a statement on Sunday while knocking off the defending champions. This won't be the best version of the Aces, as the team is playing its fourth road game in seven days.
Score prediction: Dream 86, Aces 81
💰 Aces vs. Dream prediction & best bet
Dream ML (-117)
As long as Atlanta's moneyline value is -120 or better, I'd rather back the home team outright than lay the -1.5. BetRivers offers the best moneyline value at -117, whereas some shops like BetMGM have already moved to -125.
The Aces are finishing up a week-long road trip that started in Los Angeles last Sunday and featured multiple days in Connecticut. I wouldn't be surprised if their legs are fatigued, especially since the club is playing roughly 40 hours after its last game. Atlanta has been off since Wednesday.
Since 2024, Las Vegas is 6-9 outright as an away underdog.
🔥 Best Aces vs. Dream player prop bet
Jackie Young Under 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)
TheScore Bet is alone among the best sports betting sites while offering a PRA line of 28.5 for Las Vegas guard Jackie Young. The rest of the market is at 27.5, which is where I'd be comfortable playing it to as well.
Young has only cleared this line once in four games to start the season while averaging 14 points, 4.5 rebounds, and six assists per contest. But this is more of a matchup-based prop than anything. The Dream rank third in defensive rating, and they trot out multiple perimeter defenders capable of keeping Young in check.
Young typically posts notable splits in wins vs. losses. She failed to clear this line in 12 of the Aces' 17 defeats in 2025.
🚀 Aces vs. Dream same-game parlay
It's clear I'm banking on the Aces to struggle on Sunday during their fourth road game of the week. Not only am I expecting the Dream to win, but the Aces could have some offensive issues because of tired legs.
💵 Aces vs. Dream SGP picks
- Dream ML (-125)
- Under 172.5 (-115)
- Jackie Young Under 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)
Best odds: +320 via the Score Bet (0.1u -> 0.32u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-4 | +1.53 units ✅ | 23.2% ✅ |
| Player props | 2-1 | +0.8 units ✅ | 24.2% ✅ |
| Parlays | 1-2 | +0.08 units ✅ | 26.7% ✅ |
📊 Live Aces vs. Dream odds
📺 How to watch Aces vs. Dream
- Date: Sunday, May 17
- Tipoff: 1:30 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Arena (Atlanta)
- TV: Peacock
- Streaming: NBC
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