⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Saturday, May 16
Luis Severino brings his 5.81 career ERA at Sutter Health Park into another home start, which has me backing Giants slugger Willy Adames to hit his first home run in May as one of my top home run predictions today.
I’m adding the red-hot Luke Raley to my MLB home run picks as he looks to continue picking up the slack from a power perspective for the Mariners with Cal Raleigh on the IL. Lastly, I make my best wager on the Diamondbacks-Rockies game from Coors Field, which projects to be a slugfest, and fade a homer-prone Nationals pitching staff.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 16
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Raley to hit a home run (+650 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.63u | Raley has filled Seattle's home run void that Raleigh left from last season. |
| Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+320 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.8u | Carroll has hit five home runs in 17 career games at Coors Field. |
| Adley Rutschman to hit a home run (+550 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.38u | Rutschman has been an RBI-machine since coming off the IL. |
| Willy Adames to hit a home run (+550 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.38u | Adames gets a great matchup to end a 26-game HR drought. |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 5.19 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Luke Raley to hit a home run (+650)
Seattle has a Raleigh on the IL but a Raley looking like the 60-home run man from a year ago in his place.
Raley entered the weekend with home runs in back-to-back games, and five long balls, 14 RBI, and a 1.000 slugging percentage in his last eight. He brings his 97th percentile hard-hit percentage and xSLG and 99th percentile barrel rate into a matchup with Walker Buehler, who's so far allowing the second-hardest contact of any season in his career.
Buehler has allowed four-baggers in two straight starts, making Raley a great value play.
📡 SBR Edge: Most improved player?
Luke Raley has increased his xSLG from .358 last year to .605 this year, while his xBA is also up 70 points, and his hard-hit rate is on pace to increase for the third straight campaign.
🔥 More home run picks today
Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+320)
Tomoyuki Sugano allowed 33 home runs and a .799 opponents’ OPS with the Orioles last season. In fact, his 1.9 HR/9 rate last season was the second-worst among the 70 pitchers who threw at least 150 innings.
Corbin Carroll entered the series as one of three Diamondbacks hitters with four-plus home runs against right-handed pitchers. Of those three, his .405 slugging percentage is second-best, and the optimistic viewpoint is that four of his last nine hits have gone for extra bases, despite the outfielder's batting average sitting at just .217 this month.
Carroll now faces an opportunity to get right against Sugano, whose xSLG increased 55 points from last year, as the righty sits in the third percentile in barrel rate.
Adley Rutschman to hit a home run (+550)
The Nationals allowed 15 runs and four home runs during their series finale against the Reds on Thursday, running their total of allowing 10-plus runs to an MLB-worst seven games.
Rutschman entered this series with an MLB-high 21 RBIs since April 21 (when he came off the 10-day IL), and he's hit six home runs in that span. Rutschman also enjoyed a 16-game stretch when he slashed .356/.406/.661 with 10 extra-base hits and 17 RBI, a dramatic improvement from his .293 BABIP this season.
Though Cade Cavalli has allowed just one home run this season, he's also allowed a .935 OPS to left-handed hitters, and Washington’s bullpen ranks 29th with a 1.32 HR/9 rate.
Willy Adames to hit a home run (+550)
Willy Adames enters amid a 27-game home run drought. The good news for Adames is that he's away from the cavernous Oracle Park (all three of his home runs have come on the road), and Adames faces Severino, against whom he has one home run and a 1.137 OPS in 15-career at-bats.
Adames is due for positive regression, as his 42% hard-hit rate is on par with 40.7% and 43.1% rates during the last two seasons when he hit 62 combined home runs.
The infielder faces a great chance to get right against Severino, who has allowed 14 home runs in 100 2/3 career innings at Sutter Health Park, including four in just 18 1/3 innings this year.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
Two legs of this home run parlay back red-hot sluggers in Raley and Rutschman, who have hit their fair share of dingers over the last couple of weeks. I've struck a balance while backing two other players who posted 30-plus home run seasons last year in Carroll and Adames, while expecting them to positively regress and break out of mini slumps.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Luke Raley to hit a home run (+650)
- Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+275)
- Adley Rutschman to hit a home run (+550)
- Willy Adames to hit a home run (+550)
Best odds: +118728 via bet365 (0.1u -> 118.7u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 86-128 | +23.68 units ✅ | +16.9% ✅ |
| Player props | 59-107 | +19.29 units ✅ | +20.9% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Anytime there's baseball played at Coors Field, I'm going to look into home run wagers from that game since those contests usually get the highest totals on the day's slate.
With my other non-Diamondbacks vs. Rockies wagers, I wanted to strike a balance between red-hot hitters that still provide solid home run value (Raley and Rutschman), and playing more of a long-shot in Adames, who's looking to snap a home run drought of nearly a month. However, I wouldn't play Adames if he was at home in a less hitter-friendly ballpark, and if he hadn't been enjoying success against today's opposing starting pitcher.
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