⚾ Yankees vs. Mets Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, May 16

Rivalry weekend in Major League Baseball continues with arguably the most interesting matchup at Citi Field as the New York Yankees and New York Mets play the middle game of a three-game set. First pitch in Queens is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX), with Carlos Rodon opposing Huascar Brazoban on the mound. The Yankees are -135 betting favorites.

My Yankees vs. Mets prediction expects the home underdogs to use the momentum from their first home sweep in the club's last series to even things up at one game apiece against the Bronx Bombers.

⚾ Yankees vs. Mets picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Mets?

The Yankees are 27-9 against teams under .500 while the Mets are just 2-9 against left-handed starting pitchers this season. But I can't trust Rodon completely in just his second start of the season.

Score prediction: Mets 4, Yankees 3

💰 Yankees vs. Mets prediction & best bet

Mets ML (+115)

The Yankees entered the series ranked fourth in runs per game (5.1) while the Mets were 29th (3.6). But Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, and Cody Bellinger have been carrying the Bronx Bombers, and most of their other starters are posting an OPS under .700.

The Mets' pitching staff has allowed 183 runs, sitting only worse in the NL than four bona fide playoff contenders (Braves, Brewers, Padres, and Dodgers). Meanwhile, the bullpen is rounding into form, with Devin Williams not being scored upon in seven straight appearances and Luke Weaver allowing zero runs in nine of his last 10.

🔥 Best Yankees vs. Mets player prop bet

Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 strikeouts (-155)

Rodon was removed after 78 pitches in his first start of the season last week. He struggled mightily with command, issuing five walks even though the veteran only allowed two hits to the Brewers while striking out four.

Despite their struggles from a win/loss perspective against left-handed starting pitchers, the Mets strike out at the 10th-lowest rate against southpaws. Bo Bichette and Juan Soto hit atop their lineup and can easily see 10-plus pitches in an at-bat while running up a starter’s pitch count quickly.

Rodon didn’t generate more than two whiffs on any single pitch in his first start (28% whiff percentage overall), and the Yankees boast a rested bullpen after needing just two relievers to get the final seven outs yesterday.

💣 Yankees vs. Mets home run prediction

Juan Soto to hit a home run (+477)

Soto didn’t perform well amid the cascade of boos in the Bronx last year in his first Subway Series after leaving the Yankees. He batted .100 in the three games at Yankee Stadium, but the slugger went 4-for-11 with two extra-base hits (one home run) when the series shifted to Citi Field.

The outfielder has been showing no lingering effects from a foot injury suffered on Wednesday, with his home runs traveling a combined 805 feet the last two days. His homer on Thursday was one of a season-high five Mets home runs. New York hit more than two home runs twice in a game prior to that. 

Since Rodon was tough on righties with one hit allowed in 10 at-bats in that split in his first start, I’m confident backing a lefty slugger to go yard.

Head over to my home run predictions today for more dinger picks.

🚀 Yankees vs. Mets same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay line up nicely together, as a Mets outright win would be aided by Rodon not having a big strikeout day, and Soto hitting a home run.

Normally I prefer to swap the home run wager for a more conservative third leg of the parlay. But in this case, I like the way it boosts the odds to a more desirable payout compared to backing the Over on Soto's 1.5 total bases (+152) or 0.5 RBIs (+189).

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Mets: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

As much as I'm a believer in the Yankees' chances to win the AL pennant, largely because of their rotation, I also know it will take some time for Rodon to return to mid-season form.

Rodon still being on a pitch count plays heavily into backing the Under on his strikeout total. The lefty also has a .542 career winning percentage in the first half of the season compared to a .600 winning percentage after the All-Star break. That has me more confident in the Mets winning outright, even if their push comes in the later innings against the Yankees' bullpen.

📊 Live Yankees vs. Mets odds

The only line movement at any of our best sports betting sites so far took place at DraftKings, where the Yankees ticked up from an opening number of -131 to -136. That represents the high end of the market now, with FanDuel on the low end at -130 (carrying a 56.52% implied probability).

All of the best MLB betting sites are in unison with an O/U of 8.5, juiced -105 to the Over (51.22% implied odds) and -115 to the Under. With dead-even 50/50 betting splits to this point, I don't foresee the total changing anytime soon.

📈 Yankees vs. Mets betting trends

🚑 Yankees vs. Mets injuries

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Mets

• Date: Saturday, May 16
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Yankees starter: Carlos Rodon (0-0, 6.23 ERA)
• Mets starter: Huascar Brazoban (2-1, 2.14 ERA)