⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Sunday, May 17
Kyle Schwarber is on a home run tear the likes of which the Philadelphia Phillies franchise has rarely seen, which makes the slugger the anchor of my home run predictions today even though he's facing one of MLB’s best pitchers, Paul Skenes.
The rest of my MLB home run picks offer a nice balance of hitters atop the league leaderboard in dingers like Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Walker, with value plays like Mark Vientos based on the history of how the Subway Series has gone at Citi Field.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 17
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Walker to hit a home run (+558 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.4u | Walker has gone more than two games without a home run once since April 30. |
| Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+450 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.13u | Henderson gets a great matchup to snap a 16-game home run drought. |
| Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+340 via BetMGM) | 0.25u → 0.85u | Schwarber holds the MLB home run lead by four after a recent torrid streak. |
| Mark Vientos to hit a home run (+570 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.43u | Vientos ranks in the top 80th percentile in most power metrics. |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 4.81 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Jordan Walker to hit a home run (+558)
Jordan Walker continued his breakout season with home runs on Thursday and Friday to give him the third-most in the NL. The Comeback Player of the Year candidate entered this series with a plus-2.6 rWAR, canceling out the exact amount of negative WAR he accumulated over the last three.
Walker should tee off on Royals righty Stephen Kolek, who has allowed three home runs in 42 at-bats, including two in just seven at-bats to right-handed hitters. While his 1.286 slugging allowed to righties will surely positively regress, I’m still backing Walker in a tasty matchup.
📡 SBR Edge: Consistency across series
Walker has tormented every opponent that's stood in his way lately, homering at least once in each of the last five series of three-plus games.
🔥 More home run picks today
Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+450)
Nationals righty Miles Mikolas has allowed a home run in three of his last four starts, and he's currently posting the sixth-worst HR/9 rate (2.25) of all pitchers who have thrown 30-plus innings.
He hasn’t enjoyed success at Nationals Park, pitching to an 8.10 home ERA. Though both lefties and righties have hit him equally hard, he's allowed five of his nine home runs to left-handed hitters, with an OPS 36 points higher in that split.
That makes Gunnar Henderson a great value play to hit his first home run this month, as he’s long overdue after posting an expected slugging of .479 or better and a hard-hit rate of 52% or higher in two of the previous three seasons.
🤑 More MLB picks
Looking for more ways to cash in on Sunday baseball? I have you covered with my Marlins vs. Rays prediction and Diamondbacks vs. Rockies prediction.
Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+340)
Schwarber turned in his 39th career multi-home run game on Friday, and third this season. In the process, he became the second-fastest player in Phillies franchise history to hit 20 home runs during a season, doing so in 45 games (one fewer than Cy Williams’ 44 in 1923).
Entering the weekend, Schwarber had posted nine home runs over his last eight games while driving in 15 runs and slugging 1.182 during that span. A model of consistency, Schwarber has now registered 20-plus home runs in six straight seasons, and he's done so nine times in his career.
We’re getting great value on his home run odds considering the slugger is facing Skenes, but the lefty could also get a couple of at-bats against the more hittable Pirates bullpen.
Mark Vientos to hit a home run (+570)
The Yankees had lost 12 of their previous 16 games at Citi Field before Friday. They had pitched to a poor 5.95 ERA and allowed a .882 OPS during that span.
The Mets' lineup gets a reprieve after facing Cam Schlittler and Carlos Rodon in the first two games of the series. If not for Max Fried landing on the IL this week, today's starter Elmer Rodriguez could have likely been the obvious option to make room for Rodon in the rotation by being moved to the bullpen.
Rodriguez didn't allow a home run in 8 2/3 innings spanning two starts, both against the Texas Rangers. But he's been torched by a .421 batting average allowed against right-handed batters, which is why I’m tabbing Mark Vientos and his elite 96th percentile expected with my last home run pick.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
Two legs of this home run parlay back red-hot sluggers in Walker and Schwarber, who each rank in the top 10 on the home run leaderboard. I've struck a balance while backing two other players who haven't hit long balls as frequently in Gunnar Henderson and Mark Vientos.
Both are great value plays because of either a proven track record in previous seasons, or Statcast numbers being lobster-red in most power metrics in Vientos' case.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Jordan Walker to hit a home run (+558)
- Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+404)
- Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+279)
- Mark Vientos to hit a home run (+529)
Best odds: +118728 via bet365 (0.1u -> 118.7u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 87-136-1 | +21.33 units ✅ | +14.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 59-115 | +15.79 units ✅ | +16.5% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Since I've covered the likely slugfest at Coors Field separately in my Diamondbacks vs. Rockies prediction, I focused on several of MLB's top sluggers to round out my home run predictions for the week.
Given how hot Schwarber has been, I wouldn't put anyone off making a home run wager on him at any plus-money odds. We just happen to be getting a much better price than normal on a player who has hit nine home runs in a nine-game stretch because he's going against the leading Cy Young odds contender in the NL.
Since I went rather chalky with the Walker and Schwarber plays, I wanted to make sure my other two wagers carry more value for a better-balanced portfolio.
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