⚾ Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, May 17

Major League Baseball’s two most recent expansion teams meet in the rubber match of a three-game series as the Colorado Rockies host the Arizona Diamondbacks. First pitch from Coors Field in Denver is set for 3:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), with Michael Soroka opposing Michael Lorenzen on the mound. The Diamondbacks are -155 favorites.

My Diamondbacks vs. Rockies prediction calls for a slugfest between these two NL West rivals, even though I don’t expect much from Ezequiel Tovar offensively. However, I am backing a home run pick on a Rockies slugger as part of my MLB picks.

⚾ Diamondbacks vs. Rockies picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Diamondbacks vs. Rockies?

After starting the season 4-0 in Soroka’s first four starts, the Diamondbacks have lost three of his last four outings, so I’m expecting Colorado to continue to make improvements coming off last year’s 119-loss season.

Score prediction: Rockies 7, Diamondbacks 5

💰 Diamondbacks vs. Rockies prediction & best bet

Over 10.5 (-118)

Soroka is fresh off his first good road outing of the season (6 1/3 scoreless innings). But he still holds a 7.20 ERA and .295 OBA in road starts because of two other rocky appearances, and that form should only be exacerbated in Denver.

He's posted a 2.70 ERA in two career games against the Rockies, but none of those outings were in the Colorado altitude. 

Meanwhile, Lorenzen isn’t off to a great start in his first season with the Rockies, as he's pitched to a troubling 9.64 ERA and .416 OBA in four Coors Field starts.

🔥 Best Diamondbacks vs. Rockies player prop bet

Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 total bases (-169)

Though I expect Colorado to do its part in the scoring, Tovar shouldn't benefit from the altitude of Coors Field with the way he's hitting so far. 

Tovar rewarded the organization for signing him to a seven-year, $63.5-million extension in 2024 by hitting 45 doubles and belting 46 home runs. Since then, he's slashed just .253/.294/.400 in 95 games in 2025, and regressed to a .193/.240/.271 slash line through his first 150 plate appearances this year. 

Tovar is on pace for a troubling blend of a career-low wOBA (.244) and xSLG (.380), and a career-high strikeout rate (27.7%). And surprisingly, playing at home has been worse for Tovar’s numbers, as his batting average and slugging percentage are 96 and 112 points worse, respectively, than on the road.

💣 Diamondbacks vs. Rockies home run prediction

Mickey Moniak to hit a home run (+375)

Soroka’s .309/.380/.454 slash line allowed to left-handed hitters compared to his .208/.250/.333 to righties makes it clear which type of hitter we should be backing to go yard.

Mickey Moniak produced an 18-game hitting streak into the first week of May, during which he raised his batting average 84 points and put up 14 extra-base hits, six of which were home runs. 

From the beginning of June last year to the start of this week (114 games), Moniak batted .300 with 23 doubles, 30 home runs, 74 RBIs, and a .608 slugging percentage. That slugging percentage trailed only Aaron Judge and Shea Langeliers during that span (minimum 400 plate appearances).

🚀 Diamondbacks vs. Rockies same-game parlay

While the Tovar leg of this parlay contradicts the Over cashing, I'm making up for that while adding a third leg for Moniak to stuff the stat sheet and carry the Rockies' offense once again.

While Tovar is amid a four-game hitting streak, he didn't record his first extra-base hit in May until the 12th game of the month, with the shortstop only turning in one multi-hit game in that span.

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💡 How I'm betting Diamondbacks vs. Rockies: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Given that I predicted the Rockies to win outright, I wouldn't put anyone off backing their market-best +132 moneyline odds (carrying a 43.10% implied probability) instead of the Over. I also looked long and hard at Tovar to go hitless at +165 odds. But his four-game hitting streak scared me off of that, and I went with his total bases prop given his lack of power and 40th percentile expected slugging percentage.

📊 Live Diamondbacks vs. Rockies odds

DraftKings has posted the only notable movement in the moneyline odds thus far, floating back and forth between Arizona -149 and -156. The betting splits are 59/41 in favor of the Diamondbacks, but given that this line hopped between the two numbers multiple times overnight, that could suggest sharp action on both sides.

bet365 opened at an O/U of 11, and it returned there after being bet briefly to 10.5. DraftKings did the opposite, touching 11 from an opening number of 10.5 before being bet back down. The 66/34 split in favor of the Over justifies the line movement, but it likely means there's respected action on the Under keeping the total from inflating.

📈 Diamondbacks vs. Rockies betting trends

🚑 Diamondbacks vs. Rockies injuries

📺 How to watch Diamondbacks vs. Rockies

• Date: Sunday, May 17
• First pitch: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Coors Field (Denver, Colo.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Diamondbacks starter: Michael Soroka (5-2, 3.53 ERA)
• Rockies starter: Michael Lorenzen (2-5, 6.55 ERA)