⚾ Marlins vs. Rays Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, May 17

The Miami Marlins snapped the Tampa Bay Rays' 11-game home winning streak yesterday, and now they vie for a series win today. This is the earliest first pitch of the Sunday slate (12:15 p.m. ET, Peacock), as Eury Perez opposes Drew Rasmussen on the bump. The Rays are -160 betting favorites.

My Marlins vs. Rays prediction backs the Tampa Bay train to keep rolling, with Rasmussen a great value play to record the win. I also make my best home run play as part of my MLB picks on a Tampa Bay slugger in his first game facing Perez.

⚾ Marlins vs. Rays picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.93 units

🏆 Who will win Marlins vs. Rays?

Tampa Bay owns the best record in the American League, and there’s no reason to think that will change against a Miami team that's posted the worst road record among National League clubs.

Score prediction: Rays 4, Marlins 2

💰 Marlins vs. Rays prediction & best bet

Rays ML (-154)

Tampa Bay entered the weekend after winning 17 of its last 20 games while pitching to a 1.90 ERA and owning a plus-44 run differential over that span. 

When Tampa Bay started that streak going 13-1, it averaged 4.3 runs per game and was receiving great contributions from its entire pitching staff, with a 1.78 starting pitching ERA and 0.63 bullpen ERA. 

The Rays also had a stretch of allowing three earned runs in 16 straight games, becoming the first to accomplish that feat in 15-plus games since Houston in 2022.

🔥 Best Marlins vs. Rays player prop bet

Drew Rasmussen to record the win (+150)

Rasmussen has won half of his last six starts, a trend that should positively regress since he has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his eight outings. 

Rasmussen’s 2.82 ERA is tied for the second-best among active pitchers since the start of 2022 (minimum 400 innings pitched). He has a run value of 36 on his four-seam fastball, which is the highest on that pitch, a sinker, or a cutter since the start of 2025.

Miami’s offense ranks 18th in wRC+ and 23rd in slugging against right-handed pitching, which means Tampa Bay shouldn’t need to provide Rasmussen with much run support to record the victory.

💣 Marlins vs. Rays home run prediction

Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+310)

No AL third baseman has more home runs than Junior Caminero. 

Eury Perez boasts an electric fastball that averages 98.1 mph in velocity, the fourth-highest among all pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 250 such pitches. But that shouldn’t intimidate Caminero, who's batting .400 with a .867 slugging percentage against four-seamers, and he's put up a .333 batting average and .606 slugging percentage against sinkers.

Caminero’s fly ball rate and pull percentage are down slightly from last year's breakout season of 45 homers, but not enough to be worried about his home run drought extending to six games for the first time since April 14.

🚀 Marlins vs. Rays same-game parlay

If the Rays win by two or more runs, that bodes well for Rasmussen's chances to record the win. In two of his three victories, the team won by at least three runs, which is why I'm switching to a run line play as part of this parlay. 

To give this SGP a more realistic chance of cashing, I'm swapping out my Caminero home run play for him to drive in a run, even though he's done so only once in the last five games. 

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Marlins vs. Rays: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I typically draw the line between a moneyline and run line wager at anything steeper than -155 odds, and that makes FanDuel the only place I'd be comfortable backing Tampa Bay to win outright. But supporting the Rays to cover -1.5 runs has been a profitable venture, as bettors would be up 13.15 units with a 29% ROI doing so in each of the Rays' last 35 home games. 

My decision to back Rasmussen to earn the victory as my top player prop pick was made easier knowing the Rays' starting pitcher has earned the win in five of their last eight team victories.

📊 Live Marlins vs. Rays odds

Tampa Bay touched as high as -165 at Caesars, while FanDuel's line plummeted from -162 to -154 less than 20 minutes after opening. That suggests sharp action is on the underdogs at the best MLB betting sites, with the line moving in the Marlins' favor despite them receiving only 28% of the early wagers.

The betting splits on the total are 61/39 in favor of the Over, so it makes sense that the line returned to an O/U of 7.5 at all the best sports betting sites that ticked down to 7 briefly (Caesars, bet365, and DraftKings).

📈 Marlins vs. Rays betting trends

🚑 Marlins vs. Rays injuries

📺 How to watch Marlins vs. Rays

• Date: Sunday, May 17
• First pitch: 12:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Fla.)
• Streaming: Peacock
• Marlins starter: Eury Perez (2-5, 4.94 ERA)
• Rays starter: Drew Rasmussen (3-1, 3.16 ERA)