MLS 2013 Season

[camelbreath$]

Thoughts on taking Montreal, FC Dallas, Houston, and Philly? All ML.

he recommended Montreal +0.75 above

[cmh329]

Big play on Phi/Tor over for me.

[andyrocha90]

Chivas vs. Seattle is looking like a trap game. line should be Seattle -1.

yeah I know Chivas is at home, but Chivas has been getting destroyed every weekend.
Only big missings for Seattle is Johnson and Evans, both who I think are overrated. and Obi Martins will most likely be starting tonight. yet Seattle -0.5 is at -101, lol.

this is the perfect stay away game. but money on the draw or +0.5 sounds like the "sharp" play.

[andyrocha90]

weak foul call on Montreal. and it wasnt even inside the penalty box. Lol.

refs must have money on the KC moneyline

[ExeRok]

Damn, stayed away of SJ fade with RSL slowing down last week and odds being not that good at even money, they have an early 2-0 lead.
Colorado and Dallas will finish under 100% with game like that, but I found some shitty reasoning about Dallas allowing a lot on the road. Truth is that Colorado is great opponent for that because they won't exploit it in most cases. But it's justice, made a decision to not give a penetrate about Colorado, and now paying the price. They are cashing obvious bets every single gameday.

[hundo]

This dallas game is awesome, 4 goals in 20 minutes...

[ExeRok]

This dallas game is awesome, 4 goals in 20 minutes...

Maybe after all it's not so bad to not give a penetrate. But first half was so damn boring with probably no shots on goal.

[hurricane1091]

Thoughts on taking Montreal, FC Dallas, Houston, and Philly? All ML.

Put $50 on Montreal and $25 Houston vs Crew draw. Feels good to get MLS right consistently recently.

[ExeRok]

this is the perfect stay away game. but money on the draw or +0.5 sounds like the "sharp" play.

If you haven't watched this game, watch goal number 2 in highlights to see the reason why Chivas and sharp play can't exist in same sentence. Guys are having fun

[O]

Good work again today man. Let's nail the next two tomorrow. GL

[andyrocha90]

If you haven't watched this game, watch goal number 2 in highlights to see the reason why Chivas and sharp play can't exist in same sentence. Guys are having fun

lmao wow. Glad I stayed away

[ExeRok]

Montreal +0.75 @ 1.91 Pinnacle 1u W (1-2)
SKC-Montreal <2.5 @ 1.84 Pinnacle 0.5u L (1-2)
Seattle @ Chivas over 2.5 @ 1.99 Pinnacle 0.5u L (2-0)
Houston @ Columbus Under 2.25 @ 1.97 Pinnacle 0.5u HW (1-1)
LA Galaxy @ New England Revolution Under 2.5 @ 1.83 Pinnacle 0.5u L (0-5)
It was probably the worst weekend to try something new with totals with all those midweek games and missing players. And results only proved that I made mistake. At least didn't bet them big, so no big harm done. What funny is that all spread plays went very strong again, with Montreal Seattle and Chicago winning their games. Guess this is what you get for trying to fix what's not broken. Also missed on SJ fade, which was result based when I thought of it, but somehow turned into "odds not good" enough. Moving on.

[ExeRok]

One midweek MLS game again, same host and hopefully same result as last time.
Columbus @ Philadelphia:
1) Wrote many times about Philadelphia in my writeups, team with a very weak defence, they give goals to anybody. Now they are on a very hard schedule spot. Their last 2 weeks they were in Canada and played all starters, went back home and played many starters for heavy minutes, went back to Canada played many starters again and now they are going back home for midweek game. This is a lot of fatigue and level of play that they showed was already very weak. Barely won against development team, barely escaped with a draw against 10 man Toronto. They are looking much weaker in offence when they are not fresh, and all their strikers like McInerney Le Toux and Casey played a lot of minutes. Columbus haven't been all over the continent and rotated much better. So physically this will be a very tough spot for hosts.
2) Reason number 2 is team's form. Phila not only in tough scheduling spot, they are also in a bad streak and play poor at home. If you exclude 2 games against struggling Chicago (one of which they shoud've lost) their latest results should be horrible. Bad Lose @NER, Draw at home vs worst game of the season Seattle, 1-4 at home to LA, 3-5 away to Montreal, last minutes escape with draw @ 10 man from 43 minute Toronto. At home they have pretty much the same stuff for the season, with wins coming against NER (at the time was team with no offence) and Chicago. Playing at home vs good teams was disastrous, with 1-3 to SKC and others mentioned before. So there is no real home advantage for this team. Meanwhile Columbus is the second best road team in the standings, with wins against weaker teams. Their losses came against Vancouver (tough home field and playing @ Canada) and Chicago (their worst game of the season). Usually they play well, and show a very good fighting character. So they are more than capable of getting points on the road. And at the spread they are getting, they will bring profit even in case of draw.
3) Their last game. It was an absurd result, with Columbus not scoring on 3 great moments and Phily using mistake with offside trap to score 2vsgoalkeeper goal. Playing defence that way really helped Phily and many other Columbus opponents , but since then they stopped playing high defensive line. This will be the most important change, because everything Philadelphia has created, came from bad defencive positioning. That game ended with 1-1 tie, but it was a one sided. Now Columbus have some key players like Oduro and Higuain in great shape, and the won't miss so many chances.
4) Phily is overvalued by bookies. They are 15 of 19 in the league in home games, they allow as much as real bad teams like Chivas and DC.
Many reasons to play Columbus here and this is a great spot for "upset". I'm staying safe with my big play to cash on draw results, but I will be playing Columbus wins for smaller stake.
Columbus +0.25 @ 1.96 Pinnacle 1u

[ExeRok]

Portland @ Chicago:
1) Gonna play Portland again, with bookies making them underdogs for 1000th straight time. This team possess the best road record, haven't lost yet and they are trully unlucky most of their matches ended as draws. Their coach is saying and doing all the right things, and they are going for 3 points in every road game. Portland had a good rest, not playing last week, and their last cup game was a great morale booster. They won 5-1 with Piquionne scoring 4 in first half. So there's no reason to be cautious about them. If that's not enough, let's look at this matchup and their opponents Chicago.
2) Chicago started playing better last couple of games, and transfer of Magee obviously helped their offence. But playing better, means playing better than before. And before they were horrible, looking like the don't know how to score and dropping 3 straight, before escaping with the draw at RSL. Now they won lower division team, and DC (which is like lower division team), and they are supposed to look dangerous. Well, confidence can be a big factor, but a good look at them show there is still much work to be done. In their last win they lost possession 37/63 to DC, one of the worst teams. And they are dead last in the league. Portland has possession as one of the keys to their success, and this is a big question mark. Chicago coaches talking about being better in that component, but good luck with that. Portland have seen much stronger sides, and they succeded against most of them. Also Chicago have constant changes in rotation, with many different people playing different roles. This doesn't go well with controlling the ball. So it's easier said than done.
3) Even though Chicago offence seems to heat up, it's still not a very good display. Their goals against DC were not too convincing. Good bounce, than they had multiple one on ones because of how bad DC defence played. Portland ain't defensive juggernaut on the road, but they are pretty competent to not make mistakes like these. Chicago is very poor with their decisions in fast counter attacks, and they don't score well on set pieces. This is two areas where Portland can be hurt. But main concern for Chicago offence, is that they will have to catch up with Portland's goalscoring. 12 goals in 7 games, and their schedule haven't been soft. They scored on everybody.
And midfield matchup look bad for Chicago too. Portland puts most pressure on midfield, and with what Chicago have they'll probably turn the ball over exactly where Portland need them too.
So it will be very tough task for hosts. They are facing best road team, which haven't lost despite very strong schedule. Chicago will need to show up on both ends of the field, and they will also need to create miracle and win a possession battle. And even all these won't guarantee them a win. I'm only betting this as a +handicap because Portland had so many draws, and I don't want returns or lost money on another draw. Don't expect them to lose here anywhere close to what odds suggest, so I'm making my big play safe, but will play Portland win for smaller stake.
Portland +0.25 @ 1.82 1.5 u

[stemellor]

Like this again Exe. Will almost certainly tail this, really good analysis again. I've also taken NER at home to DC. My only real concern here is that DC won all 3 games last year.

[bosigga]

Great analysis. I'm reading the Timbers will be without Ryan Johnson, Donovan Ricketts, Futty Danso and Rodney Wallace for international duty, but they seem confident their changed personnel will step up.

I haven't watched Portland play much, is this any cause for concern or do you think their depth will show here?

The argument for Portland still seems solid

[ExeRok]

Great analysis. I'm reading the Timbers will be without Ryan Johnson, Donovan Ricketts, Futty Danso and Rodney Wallace for international duty, but they seem confident their changed personnel will step up.

I haven't watched Portland play much, is this any cause for concern or do you think their depth will show here?

The argument for Portland still seems solid

Yes, I definately think it will show. This is not like -Keane in LA. They have equal substitutes, and enough guys to run at midfield. Midfield should be the key, and Johnson (real key guy imo) is still there to be motor and show right attitude. If you check comments on MLS site, all thoughts are about thin back line etc, but Portland play great because they pressure ball in the middle. And even with all the missing players, I believe in midfield head-to-head Portland has great advantage.

[bosigga]

Valeri with a slick finish, up 1-0!

[ExeRok]

Thanks for kind words once again, fellas. Happy to help!
Sad finish in Portland's game, but late goals are a common story for many teams this year. Stupid Pinnacle design (draw is in the bottom row, while wins are put near each other) saved me money this time, because I put bet on draw instead of Portland win. Still it was a bitter sweet experience, cause this game shouldn't been a draw.
Columbus made an unpleasant surprise of suddenly going right back to their offside trap high defence line. It burned them last time, but hey, let's do it again. 0-3 (could've been 0-5) in 30 minutes. I mean, does this team even have somebody with short term memory on their staff? That game was not so long ago, and since then they never really used it. But can't predict that stuff happening, they did some dumb actions and renewed their worst game of season.
Anyway, Columbus is in bad shape, and I already like Montreal against them this week. Odds are little tougher on MTL, but still good. I remember last game well (also happened not so long ago), these teams are now moving in different directions. Plus Columbus will play midweek cup game away, and Montreal is resting. So a lot of things going on, Columbus might be in need of priority check. There's no way they can play midweek game away to win, and then go home and play to win against strong guest team. They are after tough loss, already with fatigue and small injuries, some players looked tired in last game already. So it's time to fade them, either in cup or in MLS game. Maybe both.
1 more I like for the weekend, but no rush. Plenty of things will change during cup matches. Last cup midweek went very well, hopefully this time will be even better.

[clting08]

Exerox, Any write up on US CUP???

[Vaughany]

D.C. United without Carlos Ruiz, tempted to play Philly but dont know what kind of lineups they are going to put out

[ExeRok]

Had a bad storm and no electricity as a result, so got online only now. 2 hours left, so check periodically, I will definately post something.

[ExeRok]

NYRB @ NER:
Tailing first play, but would definately play it myself. As much as I don't like NER and their offensive potential. But NYRB on the road, without Henry Cahill etc is not even a mediocre team. Playing hosts as underdogs against a team like that is really a no brainer.
New England pk 1.926

Columbus @ Chicago:
Columbus practice penalties and have no problem of playing young players in important away game. Well, here you have the idea of what their intentions are. They are hoping for a draw with problematic roster, and Chicago is going for the win. Last 2 games were very poor for Columbus, and their last visit here they had a terrible game. I don't know if tired roster with new players in it can regroup and perfom well in situation like that. So going to fade Columbus.
Chicago win 2.04

[ExeRok]

Orlando @ SKC:
The fact that Orlando won against Colorado with bigger total making this bet even sweeter. They are not an over team on the road, this should be a much tighter game today. Both teams's best interest will be in the under game, so taking it under for + money is a very good opportunity. Can't expect it to go crazy more than 50% of the time.
463 Orlando City (USL-Cup)/Sporting Kansas City (USL-Cup)* Under 3 +110 2.100

[ExeRok]

Charleston @ RSL:
Charleston doesn't seem to play over games on the road, and their only lifeline is to defend well and hope to score somehow (just like they did against San Jose). But it's still a tough choice to go with total in this one. RSL is in crazy good form, they score 3 just by themselves for a long stretch of time. So betting under against them and counting on USL team to get it done is not the smartest idea. I would rather choose RSL in great shape to win comfortably at home. They lost a 2-0 lead last time, so hopefully they will be more aware now and won't let 2+ goal lead slip away. Playing RSL -1.5.
470 Salt Lake (USL-Cup)* -1½ -117 1.855 vs Charleston Battery (USL-Cup)

[ExeRok]

Houston @ Dallas:
Dallas is always a great option at home. 2.35 odds to win, you don't see that often. If Houston haven't played better on the road lately, this would be the easiest bet of the day. But they snatched many points in situations just like this lately, and they have a lot of players ready to boost their lineup. But both teams are rested and want to win, but Dallas shows more desire. Coach promised a strong squad and with their great form at home game is theirs for the taking.
467 Dallas (USL-Cup)* +128 2.280 vs Houston (USL-Cup)

I think I won't touch anything else. Maybe I will combine some of these leans into something, but nothing serious:
Betting Phily on the road as a favourite doesn't sound to good. But you have to love anybody's chances against DC. So going with Phily is the only option.
Chivas is a big underdog against lower league team. That's interesting. Can be a good time to risk on their win, good spot for them to be reborn under a new coach.
Portland vs Tampa is a very good line. I don't like the situation, where odds put you into position of searching for reasons to bet against great home team that you like to win. So I will just skip it.

[Vaughany]

I know Dallas are always good to back at home, but they have a game two days late away at Portland while Houston have a week off. With that in mind I'd be surprised if Dallas dont rest at least a few key players, while Houston dont need to rest. Although like you say they are both coming off a bye week so should be rested anyway, so maybe Dallas will put out strong side despite away game days later.


Blas Perez on international duty, and also Raul Fernandez and Jevaughan Watson. Houston missing Brad Davis, and Boniek Garcia.

[hurricane1091]

How can you bet a tie here? I see odds for a tie, but someone has to win.

[ExeRok]

I know Dallas are always good to back at home, but they have a game two days late away at Portland while Houston have a week off. With that in mind I'd be surprised if Dallas dont rest at least a few key players, while Houston dont need to rest. Although like you say they are both coming off a bye week so should be rested anyway, so maybe Dallas will put out strong side despite away game days later.
Blas Perez on international duty, and also Raul Fernandez and Jevaughan Watson. Houston missing Brad Davis, and Boniek Garcia.

If you want to think like that, you should also remember that Houston is pathetic on a road in a long run. Yeah they got some surprising results lately, but they also lost at home lately. So it's all reversed for them right now. Before all that they were barely escaping from poor hosts like Toronto and historically they were a below mediocre road team. So if you are looking for reasons not to like any of the sides here, you will find plenty.
But it's derby, and Dallas coach said it's important tournament for them. I don't think he will go easy mode in this one (elemination game where they can win) to give rested players more rest before away game in Portland, where nothing is guaranteed.

[Vaughany]

yeah just read what he said about taking Open Cup seriously. I've got a tiny play on Dallas PK already at -150 anyway

[ExeRok]

New England pk 1.926 Win 4-2
Chicago win 2.04 postponed
463 Orlando City (USL-Cup)/Sporting Kansas City (USL-Cup)* Under 3 +110 2.100 Win 1-0
470 Salt Lake (USL-Cup)* -1½ -117 1.855 vs Charleston Battery (USL-Cup) Lose 2-2 (but 5-2 in extra time )
467 Dallas (USL-Cup)* +128 2.280 vs Houston (USL-Cup) Win 3-0
Playing Chicago tomorrow again, since Pinnacle returned the bet.

[Vaughany]

Nice work! And very unlucky with RSL as well for the clean sweep

[ExeRok]

NER @ Vancouver:
Multiple reasons again for me. On first look, betting against NER whole season was like flipping a coin. They just play their turtle style and you never know if hosts will be able to crack it and win. But at least odds are at 2.0, so even if it's true it's not a dumb bet. But many things are different for this particular game.
1) Vancouver is in great shape. Many important players returning from their injuries. They are actually winning on the road. Their last game agains Seattle (one of the worst matchups in playing style) they lost only because of stupid penalty. They had lead for a long time, but couldn't hold on starting and finishing storm of the hosts. However, this game they are at home, and at home they are elite team, with a lot of goalscoring. So they are more than capable of testing NER defence. So in terms of hosts, this is the best situation to bet them: at home, roster is strong, great form.
2) NER is coming off midweek game, now flying to Canada. Already a tough spot. Their last results are scary, but they caugh strong teams in difficult spots (like game with LA and Houston). After that they cooled off a little: played 0-0 with DC and allowed NY to score twice in the cup. Their play is not the same as just couple of games before.
3) With both team's profile in mind, their matchup looks interesting too. NER is in a weird spot, because they had all that success not so long ago, and their offence is much more improved in last month. So it will be dumb for them to play like they did against Seattle or Portland with 10 man on defence. But whatever they choose, Vancouver is good with both. They are slow starters, and they lost many points by allowing teams to score on them. If NER is defending from begining, this won't be the case. And Vancouver has great attacking potential to deal with NER defence. If NER try to play equals, they will get themselves into "Vancouvers game". More stamina, better talent, better set pieces, home support. NER only have better counters, but it's more logical to use it through defencive approach. So among all possible playing styles and formations, Vancouver will have advantage.
So in conclusion you can put it as simple as: great home team with good shape and healthy roster playing mediocre guests with weaker form in tough spot. Add to this all things mentioned before, and you have yourself a great bet at 2+ odds.
Vancouver Whitecaps Win @ 2.00 Pinnacle 1u

Montreal @ Columbus:
Yes, I bet Montreal every game. But really, odds are good on their +0.25. This is allowing to cash even on draws, and I'm sure they won't have 50% losses on the road this year. So line value is there, now to the football reasons:
1) They played in Montreal not so long ago. I remembe that game. I thought that there were easier bets than this, because game was kind of close, but still result was unfair. Columbus scored on some sick finish, they had very few moments, and my only concern was that Montreal was not dominating in that game. Well, now they are on the road, and we don't need to bet them at <2 to win game. Now it's almost 2 for +0.25. Montreal is capable of doing damage on the road, and Columbus is at the bottom of the table at home. So switching fields may not be that big of a deal as odds suggest.
2) Teams are moving in different directions. While Montreal getting road wins against strong teams, Columbus fails to get results in cups and against weaker teams in the league. Their last fail against Phily was really stupid, because they did one thing, that really burned them vs same opponent before. It really shows that they are not prepairing well, and their coach can make crucial mistakes.
3) Both teams have problems, but let's compare them. Montreal miss Nesta and have small amount of defender. But this story repeat itself time and time again and it never was a real problem for MTL. They have great high workload midfielders, and team is very capable in counters. So they defend not only with actual defenders, but use most of the team. And when they get the ball they run and execute in counters. So Nesta not playing never have been the problem for this team. You can worry for their attack more, but hopefully Di Vaio will find his touch on the road, and he helps others to contribute. They looked much better on offence in their last road games.
Columbus is in much deeper shit. First of all, they have their cup game postponed. So they will play on Thursday. It's a very short rest for a team that's already in tough schedule position, many injuries, many rusty players. They will ride Higuain and Oduro to death, because they have no other players to produce results. And coaching can strike again, because they won't have practice or preparation, just regeneration session. So even if game will be game of chances, they won't be too sharp to turn rare moments into goal. Montreal commits a lot of fouls and can be hurt on set pieces, but Columbus is not too dangerous, and their execution is really straight forward. Same freekick/corner takers doing same uneffective plays.
Very hard spot for hosts, who are weaker even without all the scheduling problems. No rest, no preparation, poor form. List goes on. Betting Montreal to win at smaller stakes too.
Montreal Impact +0.25 @ 1.91 Pinnacle 1u
*there are some improvements to this particular bet as I watch their cup game. I forgot that Columbus is very prone to counter attacks, so Montreal can have easier time converting. Also they have injury to Glauber and play Oduro from early minutes. They wanted to rest him, but now he must play two in a row with 2 days rest.

[ExeRok]

Chicago win 2-1
Cup went well again. Need to get MLS back on track this weekend.

[ExeRok]

Not playing these big, leans for totals:
NER @ Vancouver >2.5 (2.22)
Toronto @ DC <2.5 (1.8)
Dallas @ Portland >2.5 (1.88)
Portland win (2.00)
Won't touch Colorado-SJ game. SJ problems are deeper than what can be fixed with coaching change. But you never know what this little change can do to a team. With Chivas it did nothing, but it's a different story. Colorado had a great run, but seems that their game is getting worse. Draw with SJ not long ago, cup loss, pretty bad perfomance in draw against Dallas. Going for under with this team is never a bad option, but whole situation is screaming to stay away of it.