Seattle 2 up in 33 mins 1H..
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All bets cashed, and under leans were good too. Seems like over/under streaks might be of some value. Colorado is now on 7 game under streak. Them and NER have just 2 over games in a season. Will review wrong ones and SJ situation tomorrow, after all games are finished.Comment -
Thanks - tailed the Columbus game
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Bravo ExeRok, great writeup's!Comment -
Followed RSL. Cash it $
Thanks for sharing!Comment -
You are a beast dude...keep up the good work. Do you follow and bet any european leagues?Comment -
I was literally going to write the same. You are a beast ExeRok! Keep up the good work!Originally posted by MrkonasComment -
ExeRok, KILLIN it
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Week results:
Thanks for kind words fellas, been waiting for weekend like this for a long time. I follow but don't make predictions on other leagues and started MLS just because there were like 2-3 people posting about it. 1 league is time consuming enough for me and there are plenty of people to tail in european football.Originally posted by Mrkonas
This week:
LA Galaxy -0.25 @ 2.23 Pinnacle W (4-1)
Playing Montreal to win at 1.9 L (0-0)
Real Salt Lake to win @ 2.25 Pinnacle W (4-1)
Columbus +0.25 @ 1.78 Pinnacle W (1-0)
Portland/Vancouver Over 2.5 @ 2.08 Pinnacle W (2-2)
SKC -0.25 @ 2.04 Pinnacle HL (1-1)
Seattle win @ 1.84 Pinnacle W (4-2) *using the odds of the time I actually posted
Almost everything in bet games went as expected so there is nothing really to write about. SKC were robbed of a goal by refs and missed on multiple good chances late in the game. So odds were really off and SKC should've won that game and I don't regret decision to go with -0.25 instead of pk.
Columbus vs Toronto was probably the worst bet of the day, but in the end result was positive. Any team could be up 3-0 after the first half, and it took some luck for Toronto not to score. Not like there were no value in this line, but rollercoaster game with those odds doesn't look well near other bets, that went much easier and were at much higher odds. Well, that rings the bell with Toronto, who have Koevermans returning and some new players coming in. Ofcourse those players are not what they need (what else you expect from Toronto's management) but Koevermans can really help them. Being good targetman, he can allow them not to change anything offensively and get much better results. They have 3 winnable games in their schedule, so this can be their chance to get out of bottom feeders group. I really believe they can do it, but you can never know how it's going to play out with many new players in rotation. But the way they perform and some of their strengths (like good stamina and stretches of extreme pressure/pace) leave big possibility, that they might steal some unexpected points at some very high odds in nearest future.
Chicago couldn't score and continue their terrible away perfomance. Don't like the way they finish their attacks (a lot of long shots, a lot of dumb and rushed decisions) but still there's a feeling it won't last. Certainly won't stay like it's now. Problem is that they have a very tough away schedule and betting them against RSL doesn't sound too smart. Maybe it's just better to leave them alone untill they break out.
NYRB covered correct score with late goal, so I think correct score thing is a good one, but needs a lot of attention and systematic approach. I found it late so I will be happy to end it with Columbus yet to hit it and other teams to cover it multiple times. Proper way to do it is to start from begining of the season (will try with some eu leagues in upcoming seasons) but for this one have no other choice but to complete it for lower stakes and be happy with it. Over/Under streaks seems legit too, need to do a backtest of previous seasons. But there are some teams that are Under machines, so this simple idea can lead to very easy picks. Missed two this week with NER and Colorado hitting under again, but will do backtest first to make sure that it's not some fluke.
Houston wasn't able to crack NER defence, so current knowledge is much better than one from month ago. Houston played some strange games this month, don't really know what to expect from them. Anyway they have super tough 3 game road trip against SKC Columbus and Motreal. Can't expect them to continue winning in away games, but last 2 losses totally killed their value, so I don't expect anything good. But who knows, maybe they will be overvalued.
San Jose in same spot, they also have a long road trip. After their last perfomance pretty sure I was right about fading them on that road tirp, so hope that they will be overvalued too.
As for Colorado, this team is ATM but I somehow missed on that. Very surprising perfomance and they have a little home stretch. Would be interesting to see what kind of mid season they will have, because now they are very undervalued.
Next week:
My guess is that Toronto@NER is going to have terrible odds on under. That's why with all I wrote before and knowledge that NER is actually playing "over" football at home, will be looking to bet over in this one. If my guess is right odds on Over 2 will be very good (around 1.8+). A lot of reasons to look for under in this one, which makes this bet even sweeter. All other will depend from odds, but wrote about my leans and fades already.Comment -
A lot of trap situations in line this week, this first bet should be a starting point in value.
Philadelphia @ Montreal:
Main reason I like this bet is because it's the third worst home win odds of the day. "This is madness" by bookies, and there is no way to leave this opportunity. Here is the situation:
Montreal is currently 2nd best home team in the league, and if they win two they will be tied for first with Dallas after 7 home games. They had tough schedule but still finished with 4 wins and 1 draw. They came back against fired up RSL team, and the only draw was kind of unlucky for them. Not like they totally dominated those games, but this are quality teams who played great. Montreal is getting Felipe back and had 10 days rest to practice their set pieces. So nothing to drive odds up from their side. So maybe it's their opponents who are strong? Not really.
Last midweek game I wrote about Phily and their defence in detail, and they got destroyed at home. Now they are on the road, where they play even worse. Their results are quite surprising, but as always, there are skeletons in the closet. Philadelphia got their road points and wins against scrubs, like struggling Chicago and DC (at home they also won only against Chicago and New England). Can't get worse than that really. None of those wins were dominating. To counter that they have very weak perfomance and lose @ New England, lucky draw that should be lose @ Columbus, and lose @NYRB who were not in form at the moment. So even if results might tell that this team is capable on the road, from my knowledge and watched games I know it to be false. They are below mediocre and pattern is clear: they can barely beat weakest team, but they are trashed by strong ones. SKC and LA destroyed them at Philadelphia, and NY and Columbus dominated at their home fields. Seattle played worst game of the season against them, and was still able to get away with the draw.
So long story short: this is looking to be a nightmare matchup for Philadelphia. Their last 2 road games they looked pathetic against weakest teams of the league. NER won easy against them and Phily was nowhere to be found, and they got extremely lucky not to leave Chicago with 2-3 goals and escaped with late goal victory. Now they are facing 2nd best (maybe best) home team who had time to heal, regroup and prepare something extra to make them even stronger. Every strong team who played normal dominated against Phily, so this should be story of this game too. The way Phily played their last road games, it would be a miracle for them to escape with draw. So getting Montreal to win at 3rd best price of the day in these circumstances is really a gift from bookies.
Montreal win @ 2.04 Pinnacle
Just to see the contrast:
Let's say LA is same with Montreal, among top3 home teams. They play against Seattle, who might be top road team (only 7 defeats in 34 games, tied for best goals allowed, tied for best goals scored) and currently on fire with 2 consecutive 4 goal games (which puts end to their offensive struggles).
LA odds to win are 1.86..
Portland @ DC United:
Same situation as last week, strong road team getting great odds against DC at home. Last game was a lucky draw for them, where they scored undeserved goal from nothing, which will fall for them once a season. SKC controlled the game and had a lot of good chances, but missed them. So I expect same game, but right outcome this time.
Portland creates big volume of chances against anybody and DC allow anybody to have a lot of chances. That's a bad combination for hosts. DC still struggles with offence and again it's good thing for Portland, who had problems with keeping their goal out of trouble on the road. Plus DC never control the game (even at home) and Portland lives on possession and ball control. It's a dream matchup for visiting Portland and after playing very tough schedule and getting a lot of draws against very good home teams, it's time for them to collect 3 points in this great matchup. Odds are insanely good even at pk 1.9, but I love this matchup and suggest to go riskier. Portland to win and -1 are most valuable bets, but better safe than sorry:
Portland -0.25 @ 2.29 PinnacleComment -
Didn't have enough time this week, with WNBA starting and some interesting games in NBA, so spent my time on those. It's time to at least use what was written last week.
SJ fade: I wanted to do it anyway and odds are insane once again so why not. Best option is hard to figure out. There's Dallas to win/-0.25 or Dallas team total over 1.5 at same price as -0.25. Going with team total might be overthinking, but I really like this option. It will cover some unwanted results. If you think about it, SJ may have boost only from their offence. Their defence was, is and will be poor. So the way to upset for them is through offence, not defence. So 2 ways to go in this game:
Dallas -0.25 at 2.04
Dallas Team Total >1.5 at 2.02
Toronto@NER over: Koevermans is not going to participate but I still think over 2 is legit bet. It would seem stupid if it won't go through, but you have to take it, especially when either of the teams can cover it.
Over 2 at 1.74
Houston fade: I still think it's a good idea, but hard to make it simple. Betting hosts to win you need 2 out of 3. Betting -0.25 or something can be worse in value than playing Houston for surprise result. And this first game is simple example. It's probably going under, so 1 random goal can make it a draw. SKC has been playing well, no doubt, but there results were all over the map. Consecutive shutouts followed by completely polar perfomance. Same goes for their offence. Hard to bet that game when much easier bets are available in same week's line.
So only thing that makes sense:
SKC -0.25 at 1.66
All other odds are not too inviting, so I'm just going with result predictions, not value ones:
Colorado -0.75 (odds are scary, but maybe Chivas is that bad atm)
RSL win (Chicago is in terrible form and RSL is hot, but already explaned why Chicago are timebomb, so maybe this is the "surprise" game)
NYRB win (Columbus in tough spot, with some problems in already problematic defence, very hard matchup for them)
Seattle +0.5 (going for Seattle win might seem crazy, but probably worth a shot since they are on a roll)
I will probably play all those for much smaller amount than usual, don't like to invest into half-ass predictions (haven't really read team news, injuries, haven't done my work on streaks etc etc). So treat carefully.Comment -
Didn't took long for MTL to cash team total. Love Phily defence fade.Comment -
-0.25 means SKC pk,-0.5...and you're getting that at better than even money? 5dimes has -.75 (-.5, -1) for +125, perhaps you meant -0.75 rather than -0.25?Originally posted by ExeRokComment -
Man, you are looking at last week bets with results and score written. SKC -0.25 at 1.66 a couple of posts higher...Originally posted by PuckItComment -
lol oh, gotcha. I should check the date next time.Originally posted by ExeRokComment -
Montreal win @ 2.04 Pinnacle W (5-3)
Portland -0.25 @ 2.29 Pinnacle W (2-0)
Got both team totals too, so another great week for me.
Dallas -0.25 at 2.04 W
Dallas Team Total >1.5 at 2.02 L
Over 2 at 1.74 Void
Colorado -0.75 at 1.73 W
RSL win at 1.75 L
Cant' blame luck, but results of leans could've been much better. But this is what half-effort gonna be on most cases, no gain no loss.
Going to continue with SJ fade only if odds will stay on insane level. Even in this game, Dallas missed on some good chances and didn't cover team total, but this game could go both ways. In no way I believe they are worth straight fading (like Chivas, DC etc), this is strictly a value thing. Until they will make best home team be 2+ odds to win I will be ready to risk betting against them.
Chivas and Colorado still gold, will see what's the situation is going to be. Chivas odds are already in the toilet, so only their home games will have some real value. But their schedule leaves little to no hope: vs Seattle, @ Vancouver, vs LA.
Toronto failed on road again, this team should only be considered at home. NER is mastering their shit style of play, but can't blame them it's very effective so far. Will use some situations against their predictability, but so far they've been under machine. So even if their style is not eye pleasing, they are good for some easy money.
Not a lot of action tomorrow, hopefully will catch up with some research and new knowledge.Comment -
Took FC Dallas too. Did not watch the game though, and only MLS action I had.Comment -
Over/Under streaks leans:
NYRB - Columbus Over 2.5 (strong one, especially with some changes in Crew's defence)
LA - Seattle Under 2.5 (weak one, talented offensive teams but numbers show under and game should be tight too)Comment -
Definitely agree. Took the ny/col over earlier today.
As for la/sea game is a no bet for me. public huge on galaxy, but seattle is on fire and who knows when it will end with that strong attacking line upComment -
Originally posted by andyrocha90
Reading your comments confirms that the over iis the play...best of luckComment -
As a RBNY fan, if I bet total it's always the over or no play at all. The defense has been much better. RBNY will score 2 but I don't know that Crew score at all, but the over is the play if there is one since NY at -155 isn't worth it.
Houston +290
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need NYRB to score a second goal.Comment -
good job again ExeRok!!Comment -
Results
Thanks, happy to help!Originally posted by mantorras77
Time to look at results. May was great, which is very inspiring after slow start and many unlucky results. I would love to keep record simple, but I faced troubles trying that, because I post in many different places and post leans, some of which I play. Plus I add many additional plays, with team totals and -1 -1.5 on winners. So here's full picture.
Bets in bold which are actual plays I always bet:
19 wins 11 losses 3 voids 1 half win 2 half losses for 21.33% return(roi, yield).
I excluded Montreal bet in Canadian cup, which I made bold for some reason. Anyway, my record in Canadian Cup is 2-1, with Mtl win against Toronto and under in Vancouver-Edmonton.
Also there were 2 weeks I posted plays, but had no time to format them properly. My fault and that's why I'm not adding them to my record, but the results were:
Portland +0.5 won
NYRB (bet only correct scores, they lost, but covered next week in game against LA)
RSL-NER >2.25 won
Hou-DC <2.5 lost
Sj -0.5 won
I didn't play Seattle, but they ended up winning agains SKC.
3 wins 1 loss
I pushed on big plays, that were Portland -1 win, Dallas -1 void and NYRB -0.5 loss. All small bets on leans were profitable, with Seattle Montreal wins, Van-LA and Portland-Chivas going over 2.5 and Houston not scoring against SKC. Chicago -0.25 and over, LA pk lost.
So with those weeks record should be something like 23 wins 13 losses and stuff.
A lot of action this week, with international matches, Cup matches and weekend games. Going to make plays closer to game time, ton of roster changes incoming for almost every team...Comment -
Yesterday bets on cup went pretty well, so hopefully can continue it today. Playing for much smaller sized bets than usual! Odds are not from Pinnacle this time:
Seattle win odds 2.22
Seattle has good depth, despite all the missing players. They are always perfoming well in the cup, so at this odds it's tough not to take them. Seems like this year MLS teams will crush lower leagues just like they did in 2011.
Portland -1.5 odds 1.63
Very poor opponents, who have 0-5 away record with 4-16 goal difference in third tier league. Portland is motivated and hungry for the win and they have enough depth to win this comfortably
Columbus/Dayton Under 2.5 odds 2.63 and others
Some epic odds for this situation. Rematch of last year. Dayton not bad and play underish games on the road, and Crew was never the team to trash opponents. They also had two straight fails in the cup, both at home with 1-2 score. Columbus need to be carefull too, with 2 mls games incoming this week, so not the spot to go all out and waste stamina of key players. All this makes me think this line is dead wrong, and all unders and Dayton +goals are value. I will go riskier with <2.5, but <2.75 <3 Dayton +1.5 at 2.06 seems like good options too. There is +2 at 1.6 odds. Only NER won yesterday with more than 3 goal difference and it was a great day for MLS teams. So my bets on this game are:
<3 1x
<2.5 0.5x
Dayton +2 1x
Dayton +1.5 0.5x
Chicago win odds 1.7
Hosts in poor form at home and can't win. Maybe this is what Chicago need and they will also start Magee in this one. Hopefully he can fix their offensive productivity problems. This can go much easier than the odds show.
Also thinking about playing against NYRB. They are not impressive without their key players, so hard to see them covering -2 at even money.
Tailing some plays for today. They are:
Carolina +0.5
USA-Belgium Over 2.25
GlComment -
Red card for Dayton is not good at all.Comment -
Damn conspiracy, bookies knew!!11Originally posted by SlowNsteadyComment -
Chicago 2-0 win
Carolina 2-0 win
USA-Belgium 1-2 atm over win
NYRB 2-0 push
Columbus-Dayton 2-1 (2 wins (1x and 0.5x) 1 push 1 lose (0.5x)
Seattle 0-1 lose
Portland pending
Injury note for the weekend: Gaven, Espindola.
2nd leg of Canadian Championship starting soon, like Montreal there. But a very hard game to predict, won't be surprised by any result. But MTL is ok with draws, so taking them pk at + money sounds good. I took multiple bets, MTL team total over 1, over 2.5 in game and MTL to straight win. Small bets again.Comment -
Portland 5-1 Win
Montreal 2-2 2 wins 1 loseComment -
ExeRok, what do you think... BIG play
SEATTLE Sounders -110
Chivas a total mess, just fired their coach... thinking this is one to unload on.Comment -
Agree with pick, disagree with bet sizing. Don't know anything about how you manage your plays, so you can disregard last one.Originally posted by camelbreath$Comment -
Cool... was thinking about doubling or tripling my normal wager so nothing too crazy. Can't imagine Chivas having much fight while Seattle should be ready off the loss in Open..Comment -
Done my research with overs/unders, so will combine it with my personal opinion for some plays. Will start slow, to see how it's going, so betting them at half of my usual stake.
Montreal @ SKC:
Montreal is getting no respect once again, and I will just continue to use it. This teams played at Kansas not long ago, and it was the game I lost, with Montreal looking very weak. Can't expect this to happen again and there are many reasons for that. I will start with game total. Almost everything is showing under. SKC is one of the most consistent under teams in the league (4-11 o/u this season), and they are currently on 4 game under streak. Montreal is on 4 game over streak, but those are much harder to sustain, and my backtests show it. Di Vaio has been very good at home, but he doesn't do as well in road games.
So with under in mind, spread that MTL is getting is very very good. SKC stayed at home, won cup game and have Kamara playing well, but they have some problems. They miss key players like Zusi and Besler. They haven't done that well lately, and playing against "big boys" have been their weakness. After earlier win against MTL and road victory against New York, they went on to lose to LA, lose to Portland at home, lose to Seattle at home, and drawing against Houston at home. All these things and the result of first game make me believe, that MTL will have much better chances this time. They are getting +1 at decent odds of 1.6+, and I just don't see SKC taking it with 2 goal difference. So:
Montreal +0.75 @ 1.91 Pinnacle 1u
SKC-Montreal <2.5 @ 1.84 Pinnacle 0.5u
Seattle @ Chivas:
With bet on Seattle already in place, I'm going to add total play here. Chivas is the top teams for overs this season @ 8-4 o/u. In league struggling to get it over 2.5 this is very impressive. And by impressive I mean their defence, that can allow anybody to score 3+ goals. With all the mess happening there, I can't expect them to turn into defencive force in half a week. They'll probably have 1 practice with new coach.
Seattle also adds value for playing total. Very talented offensive team, with couple of bad games, should be a good spot for a little confidence builder. They are coming in with 3 over streak, which is a good angle historically. Teams continue with overs more often than not in spots like this, and Seattle is no exception. Overs are at much better odds than unders, so this is a great opportunity.
Seattle @ Chivas over 2.5 @ 1.99 Pinnacle 0.5u
Houston @ Columbus:
Another good spot which combines with historical data. Both teams coming of midweek games. Columbus struggled to score against 10 man third tier team, and even let them make it a draw, playing 11vs10. They end up winning, but the lost key player in Gaven (Oduro was hurt last week too), and played a lot of key starters. Houston won much easier, but they have to travel in short time. So fatigue, not a lot of energy and it's already great for under game. Columbus play lowscoring games at home, and Houston was always a home team. They had a pretty surprising run on the road, but if we exclude their 4-0 win @ DC they are nowhere near good numbers in terms of goals. Plus Columbus is yet to win with 1-0/2-0 score, another historical angle that proven to be good. They should do it sometime soon, so this match is just another possibility. Tough spot for both teams, should be a dry game with no crazy goalscoring action involved.
Houston @ Columbus Under 2.25 @ 1.97 Pinnacle 0.5u
1-0/2-0 correct scores on columbus win
LA Galaxy @ New England Revolution:
NER is money when it comes to under games. Their style is hated, but productive. Both teams are "underish", despite couple of 4 goal perfomances by LA. On the road they usually keep it tight. They have a long trip after midweek game in cup (half of team played, half stayed at home) and they are missing very important players due to various reasons. Keane presence was key for their spectacular perfomances, before his return they were in a little slump. Now, with Magee gone and Robbie Keane on international duty, they may have problems with offensive production again. Everybody is expecting tough game, and NER can't play it any other way. NER is on 3 under streak, again a very good additional angle to go on with another under in this game. Situation and historic data combined.
LA Galaxy @ New England Revolution Under 2.5 @ 1.83 Pinnacle 0.5u
My leans/opinions on other totals, that are not confirmed by statistics. So decide for yourself if you want to play them or not.
DC @ Chicago:
Bookies have been consistently failing with lowest under odds games. I mentioned and used it in couple of weeks, and this is just another game that's getting great value. With two struggling teams it's public opinion this will be another shitty display, but I think that both teams are coming alive and ready to put a good perfomance. Chicago is coming home for a 3 game stretch, and this is where they are not as bad as it may seem. They won 2 here against NY and Columbus, and their loss against Phily was unfortunate. They weren't able to find their offense, and wasted a lot of chances. Now they added Magee, who is happy to return to his hometown and already scored in their cup match. Maybe he will be the the reason for their offence going back to normal. DC is a good opponent, with struggling defence and improving offence. They can provide enough chances, and they can probably score themselves too. So with chances certain to present themselves, these teams just need to find they way to make the final touch. Ready to risk at those odds.
Over 2.5 @ 2.25
Toronto @ Philadelphia:
Phily played midweek, with all starters playing heavy minutes. Toronto is adding pieces, with Koevermans questionable, but maybe good to go. They put up a fight at home and play with confidence. Phily's defence can always present more than enough chances. Their last game @ Phily it was crazy at the end, but barely holded under 2.5. Now Toronto can't play counters and be number 2, and with all the fatigue I think Phily won't mind. They are good with counters and always find some way to put the ball into the net. So this game should be very active, with many chances created. Playing Toronto as a side should seem to be the best play from that writeup, but you have to be insane to do that.
Over 2.5 @ 1.9
I will probably have some more to win and handicap bets later. Good situation for New York to win, Vancouver can't perform on the road so far. But than again, it's weird week and those NY odds are never too inviting.Comment -
Good luck with these. Analysis looks very solid.Comment -
Thoughts on taking Montreal, FC Dallas, Houston, and Philly? All ML.Comment
