MLS 2013 Season

[andyrocha90]

after the first Portland game I watched this year, I had 2 thoughts come to my head, "poor defense, great offense" and game after game, that thought keeps getting proven right, e.x. @ Sporting K.C.

on Galaxy, they have proven to be dangerous even without key players like Donovon or Keane, easy trap game for a gambler to think that those missings means easy win for the opponent. value on RSL was very very poor by gametime, and I actually waited 5 minutes before gametime to place my bet on Galaxy. Galaxy has already proven to be dangerous without key players, because players like McBean and Villareal have shown that they are dangerous too,and Magee is having an all star year.

and on Colorado, i didn't underestimate them at all today @ Houston, they are a team that's under the radar, and I think will be a team to beat this year, and to be honest, probably should have won @ Houston and deserved to win.
Houston's home record days are numbered, teams like Portland, Galaxy, Chivas will definitely put that home record to the test.

[ExeRok]

Thanks for your thoughts Andy! Great bet on +1 Colorado you had, glad you cashed it.
Haven't connected all data into the web of understanding, but here are some food for thought numbers and averages:
Will start with one thing that's already lost as opportunity. There's a guy on another forum, who did kind of a chase for multiple years. Idea is simple, to bet home team to win 1-0. As soon as team win, it's crossed out. Not really sure if there was a filter, but he was successfull with it for couple of years in English PL. I'm not a fan of any blind betting or not filtered systems, but there was opportunity to finish it earlier. There would be a moment of 12 winners and 3 pending (some struggling team who can't win for example) and this would be it for him.
If we take this little observation of (1-0) (2-0) home wins I mentioned before, and would do the same thing, here's what it would look like:
In 2011 there would be 1 loss, DC haven't won with this scores at all. Seattle had just 1 win, but it happened on 12th game of the season (even less than 12 home game) so it would be crossed quite early. All others went for 2 or more scores like that. So it's clear that with 17vs1 situation, at some point of the season there would be massive profit, and even if you go till the end I don't think that you will get anywhere near -money. Plus you can continue with teams and not cross them out.
In 2012 there would be no losses, with just two teams finishing once with that score. SJ did because it played some 5-3 kind of games, and Toronto had just 3 home wins, so 1 of 3 not bad. Again you can imagine what can happen with no losses and continued series.
This year would've been terrific, great start for those scores. With 8-9 games into season (so on average 4-5 home where we actually would bet) there are just 5 teams left with no result. NY with 4 home games, Seattle 3, Columbus 3, Chivas 5, Toronto 5 (20 games). If we take 8 odds on average, which are less than what it would be, but compensate for increasing size of bets in series, and set 1u bet for every game, there would be:
14winsx8units-20lossesx1unit= 92units of profit with no big amounts risked. Not crossing teams out would be even better, with Dallas striking 4 times already. There are a better ways to get max from this ideas, but even with no filtering or rethinking applied, this still looks fantastic.
I don't really know if you can continue it in some kind of way from this point. Can be bad idea because % of this scores is very high at the moment. 60% of home wins are (1-0) or (2-0). In 2011 average was 41%, in 2012 36%. So it may drop significantly. Will stop with that "system" thought, afraid to get entangled.

Connection between home wins and home win scores:
Betting correct scores seems to be better, than just betting wins. We have league with 40% of home wins being (1-0) (2-0), so if you combine them for odds of 8 (my estimate), and take home win odds average as 2 (my estimate), you would have a very big drop in expected value, more than 2 times. So on paper, everytime you like team to win you should be betting them on exact score. But it can turn out bad, because they can win 1-0 against strong opponents, where you wouldn't want to bet them in a first place. So if you have team playing DC and Galaxy, you bet win against DC and skip against Galaxy. It would be 1 win for you. If you use what I suggest, it would be lose against DC (because score is 3-1) and skip against Galaxy (where your team surprisingly win 1-0). So it will force you to get into this kind of situations, or bet blindly against anybody. Blind betting is not my thing really, and here's another reason why it's not suitable:
% of home wins with score 1-0 2-0:
Already mentioned it being around 40% historically, and 60% this year. So here's where blind betting won't work. Toronto has 50% of their wins with that scores, Sporting KC 40+%. So they are pretty equal in this and equal in number of home games they play (17). But number of their wins is very different. SKC had 19 in 2 seasons, while Toronto with only 8. So it's twice the difference, pluse you get opportunity to cash multiple times with SKC. Toronto had just 3 wins last season, and just 1 won with right score. I don't believe that odds will differ that much and Toronto will catch up there. So if we are in situation like we have now, who do you choose. SKC is overachieving with 2 scores in 2 home wins, while Toronto is 0 for 1. So if 50% will stay blind betting suggest we take Toronto, or maybe chase it till they get win. But here's what will probably happen:
SKC won 2 times in 4 home games. They will probably get 10 wins so they will go 8 wins 5 no wins the rest of the way. Toronto won 1 time in 5 home games. They will probably get 4 wins. So they will go 3 wins 9 no wins the rest of the way.
So if you choose Toronto, you will not only have to guess where they win (if it's not win, it doesn't matter if you took team to win or team to win at score), but also have very few chances to capitalize. Little fluke, and Toronto won't win 1 game this season with scores needed. If they win against somebody strong, it's gonna be 1/3 of your chances wasted. While with SKC, you can just bet them against weaker teams, and catch most (4 or 5) of those wins. In 4-5 tries you will definately capitalize and make handicapping meet date research to end up with more profit, than just betting SKC to win everytime. Plus this way you can correlate what you do to goals scored/allowed stats, where Toronto is nowhere near SKC. So you will have some extra something to trigger the bet.
So that's the most of it for now, and if you haven't read or understand this whole mess, here's what's important.
What to do possibilities:
1) Go on with that "kind of chase" system, to get 1-0 2-0 score from teams that haven't achieved it this season plus continue with sorted teams who already did. What we have here is:
NYRB with 5 of 8 home wins and 5 of 11 home wins in previous years. This season sitting at 0 of 2.
Columbus with 3 of 9 and 4 of 11 before, 0 of 1 now.
Seattle with 1 of 9 and 5 of 11 before, 0 of 0 now.
Toronto 3 of 5 and 1 of 3 before, 0 of 1 now.
Chivas 2 of 5 and 2 of 4 before, 0 of 2 now.
NYRB Columbus are definately worth a risk, just historically and they win a lot. Seattle is also nice option (with little fluke in 2011), but their defence will keep many teams with 0 scored and I'm sure they'll win a lot.
Toronto and Chivas not good. You see most of their wins being with needed score, but they don't win. Both won 3 times at home last year, what if they repeat this kind of perfomance.
Won't bother with selected teams to go on with, because it will probably be part of my thinking process from now on, but it's up for discussion. I already wrote on option with SKC. Galaxy is great too, already with 2 out of 3 and been at 50% historically. They win 10+, so many more chances to come for them.
2) Do what I tried to did last week. Balance of home winners and over/under changes from day to day, but we take it as a basis. Find out home winners, compare it to where you think under will hit, and bet this game for correct score.
Pros: You don't have to chase or blind bet. You just combine data research with your own capping, to increase risk, but more than make up for it with expected value. You won't have your judgement clouded by anything. There won't be "I like Galaxy to win at Columbus, but I have this Columbus to win thing going on, so I won't bet LA and stick to the chase".
Cons: You will miss many if not the most games where value is made for correct score. NER won Phily, and everybody loved Phily and thought NER will never win again. And if you miss chances like that, maybe there's no need to do this thing at all. It's possible you will get extra losses on 2-1 3-1 3-0 wins, and won't look for some bad teams like NER to cash their wins.
To me, pros>cons, because you don't lose much on bets like these (odds 8+), and you don't need to play roulette and guess when will Chivas not allow opponents to score. Much easier done with teams like SKC, Seattle, which you will pick more often than Chivas. So you will take a little risk only when you are betting this game anyway. And this results in:
3) Combine. It's what I did in the NBA. You see the spread you like. You bet main part on it, and small part on 3 additional points added for much higher odds. Make it so that you risk 1u total, and if you lose your risky bet, but win main bet, you'll still be in profit. So example is:
Houston @ LA. Odds on LA win is 2. I think LA will win, so I go on and bet 0.8u on LA win at odds 2. 0.2 will be left for correct scores, because it's possible Houston won't show up again and end up with 0 scored. While LA is always good for these 1-0 2-0 wins. So I bet this small part on correct scores. Even if LA will win 3-1, I will still have profit and won't feel like I tried some stupid correct score to not cash on what I knew would be a winner. I found it to be very good method to not get mad at yourself on wasted opportunities, yet at the same time take some risk where you think it will payoff in a long run. I think to all who read this whole thing, at least this 3rd option should be considered.
I like all these options and getting them together into some mix that will maximise profit is yet to be done.

[ExeRok]

My bad, should be 4 units won in this one, we bet 2 scores and average odds of 8, only 1 win, so it's 0.5x8=4:
14winsx4units-20lossesx1unit= 36units
But still good numbers.

[ExeRok]

Portland to win at odds 1.8 Bet365
Same price everywhere, but Pinnacle have it at -0.75, no ML yet. So I will take it as originally planned and won't wait for them, even if they will have better odds.

[ExeRok]

Took a 2nd look on Canadian Championship.
Toronto have problems with roster, they will be forced to start somebody they don't necessarily want to. It's important, because they could take defencive approach and try to grind it out. Now I don't feel like it's gonna work. Playing guys who don't have understanding between each other, who don't have enough match practice. That can be recipe for disaster. I didn't like Montreal to win because they showed no intention in first game, but now things changed. Fans showed what they think about such attitude, so it's clear that Montreal will play to win not just because they are 0-2, but because they can't have weak effort game. So that to me dismiss all other historical and roster problems for them. All these things sums up in what should be a one sided game. Montreal is strong at home so in a game like this they will often end up as winner. Impact to win at 1.75 is the best thing to bet on this card.
Vancouver seems to have much easier spot, with away lead now at home. Odds are really low on Whitecaps, but this game can be let down for them. They have very tough schedule, and there's no way their starters and key players can play 4 games in 2 weeks. They came back in both games last week, and game against Dallas should be big dissapointment for them. They played great, but will it translate to this game is a great question. With situation being that they can lose and resting players inevitable, those odds on their win doesn't look well. Even with Edmonton being awful road team, there's just not enough risk/reward in this one. But all things mentioned make this game underish, so this is what I like in that game. What adds to this, is that all game 1 goals came from mistakes or set pieces.
Impact to win at 1.75 odds
Edmonton@Vancouver Under 2.5
Will play them at lower size personally, but won't count them in a record.

[ExeRok]

Put up 0.1u on each of 1-0 2-0 in Portland game. They will probably win more games then they did in the past, and with their % of these scores hitting, it will be good idea to back them. Also have to love NER not to score, they are dead last in all shot stats this year. Their goalscoring efficiency is very low for 3 years in a row. So they are the perfect type of opponent to try this.
1-0 odds 7.8
2-0 odds 8.6

[ExeRok]

Impact to win at 1.75 odds Win (6-0)
Edmonton@Vancouver Under 2.5 Win (0-2)
Finaly heating up, 8-2 (with 6-0 in leans) last couple of weeks.
Early draft for weekend card (safe/risky):
NYRB +0.25 at 1.9/NYRB win at 3.3
Better to risk in this one. Feels like it will be either very good, or very bad for any of the teams. So the riskiest bet have the best value in game like this.
Montreal pk at 3.1/Montreal +0.5 at 1.92
Sick odds on San Jose is back. Montreal's offence is on fire right now, and this can be bad news for SJ, especially if MTL will show up for away game.
Seattle pk at 2.3/Seattle win at 3.2
Great odds, will be looking forward to seeing odds on -1 or -1.5 for Sounders.
Vancouver +1 at 1.63/Vancouver +0.5 at 2.1
Rested Vancouver, two very good games for them. Really impressed by what they showed against Dallas. They should be ready to finally play good game on the road.
LA win at 1.75/ LA -1 at 2.4
Good enough odds, and will be looking to play correct scores in this one. Houston haven't shown signs of improvement, and this is the worst case scenario for them.
Colorado-Toronto game needs more attention. I can't really see that big of a difference, that's suggested by odds. But Toronto was destroyed today, and their road potential after a lose like this seems non existent. Worst odds on under in this one, so this angle is not really good. It's hard to see anything good to bet, but I'm sure there is something. So maybe after some info appear, things will get more clear.
SKC versus Chivas should be must bet, but it's hard to pull the trigger. Main thing is that it's hard to really imagine how this game will go. I really like this to go over 2.5, but then again SKC had problems with their defence last couple of game, so they will be looking for strong perfomance. And they are always good for 1-0 2-0 wins. Will wait with this one a little bit.

[ExeRok]

Seattle -0.25 at odds 2.77 Pinnacle
Montreal +0.25 at odds 2.26 Pinnacle
NYRB win at odds 3.23 (to win 1u) Pinnacle
LA win at odds 1.813 Pinnacle

[ExeRok]

Made little bets on:
Seattle -1 at 5.1
Seattle -1.5 at 7.3
Really like this matchup and situation for something crazy like this. And feel like it's going over with Sounders taking W. But for all that to happen Sounders need to start scoring on their chances. I'm sure they will have them, more than enough actually. But they are slumping in efficiency, and there's no objective reason for that. Last 2 seasons they were 20% better than league average in terms of goalscoring efficiency (36% with league average of 30%). Now they are at the bottom with 15%... They are surrounded by likes of DC United. There's no way this two should be together if you seen them play. So this fluke will be over soon. Plus I won't be surprised if Phily get beat two games in a row. After all their defence is consistently weak, and their effort always on different level. So they are not guaranteed to bounce back after dissapointing loss. Seing healthy Seattle (with all key strikers back in the lineup, tough schedule ahead of them) struggle to score again? Against this type of defence? That will be real surprise.

[ExeRok]

SKC 1-0 at 7.2; SKC 2-0 at 8.
Wow, SKC odds dropped from 1.65 or something to now 1.46.
SKC won 21 out of 38 home games counting from 2011 season. 10 of those wins were with 1-0 or 2-0 score.
So they are 48% historically with those scores in wins, and 2 of 2 this season. So if we risk 1u, value math looks like this:
Bet to win: 1u*1.46(odds) =1.46u return
With correct score we got two bets 0.5u with average odds of 7.6 and probability of hitting 48% if we guess with win:
0.5u * 7.6 * 0.48 = 1.82u return.
So a very good reason to risk.
SKC is in list of great teams for this thing. They win more than half of their home games, and they hit these scores in 45+% of their wins. Others are NYRB, RSL, LA, Dallas.
I don't know about RSL but will try the same thing with Galaxy game. It's all in test mode for me, with lower stakes, but numbers speak for themselves.

[ExeRok]

Damn, that Montreal goal is really helpfull. Was not looking well. Weather proves to be a factor again. Players really struggling with sunshine and warm weather, after playing on frozen fields just couple of weeks ago.

[ExeRok]

Ton of midweek games, and not much action today, so it's right time to start with results and look ahead.
Portland to win at odds 1.8 Bet365 L (0-0)
Seattle -0.25 at odds 2.77 Pinnacle HL (2-2)
Montreal +0.25 at odds 2.26 Pinnacle HW (2-2)
NYRB win at odds 3.23 (to win 1u) Pinnacle W (1-0)
LA win at odds 1.813 Pinnacle
Will post results and record update after LA game is finished.
NER strike again, and it's second time they escape with draw when I bet against them. Both games had same scenario and were one sided and dominated by Seattle/Portland. No mistake in this one, comparing it to other games clearly show that 1.8 odds were a gift. Hopefully odds on NER will be better after couple of positive results. No real strategy or desire to win for them, fading them in any road game (especially if odds stay the same) will be a great idea. But their nearest schedule is 5 of 6 at home, so will see what happens. As for Portland, they are still under radar (and hopefully will stay that way after this result) but if you look at their form, they could easily be on 5 game win streak. And they had a very tough schedule. They allowed last minute goal at SJ and couldn't score against NER, but those games were never in doubt for them. So they are in great shape and can do some damage. With many road games this month, they'll be my choice most of the time just because of odds. Next is against Dallas, which looked terrible in 2nd half against Vancouver. Dallas have been keeping many teams scoreless, but once every 3 games they collapse. This match up will be tough for them in my opinion. Maybe they'll get some ridiculous home odds, and Portland +1 will be at good price.
Next one up is Seattle. They've played their worst game of the season, but I still have to change my opinion about them. It was a copy of what happened with Columbus at Chicago not so long ago. Invisible monster chasing road team and force them to give away the ball in danger areas. The result of this are attacks with man/speed advantage against a team, that's playing number 2 and counter-attacking. I mean what the hell? So they look even worse than Columbus did, end first half with 37% possession and barely escaped couple of goals. Add to this their physical condition. They were moving twice slower, but they were the team coming of a bye week. And after they survived the storm in first half you think they come out more confident and calm in 2nd. Ofcourse not, they allowed 2 goals in 2 minutes. This was the first time they showed such a bad play, so it was unpleasant surprise. But last drop was their late game collapse with red cards. It summed it up like this:
Worst possible gameplan / Bad physical condition after week with no games / No adjustments at halftime / Players losing their sh*t and showing no discipline, that resulted in red cards. All the areas where coaching happens... So coaching might be a problem for this club. Maybe there's some stuff hapening behind the curtains, but I have no way of knowing it. But what they show on the field indicates some troubles in that area. Anyway they haven't show anything, and away at SKC will be a tough place to bounce back. Their may schedule is very tough, maybe it will wake them up. Philadelphia was nowhere near the odds, they couldn't take a win from opponent playing that bad. I doubt they will be overpriced at Chicago, but will be an interesting game to see. Will be tough for Phily to find emotional drive to play well in away game. And Chicago has been playing better at home.
Will make my NYRB @ Columbus short. As I thought, it was game of chances. Had a little luck with Crew missing penalty, but I will take luck and chances game at those odds anytime. NYRB is a very rare team, that play very confident away from home. So it's a good idea to back them at 3+ odds, they won't panic and won't be afraid of invisible monster, or collapse and give away possession for no reason. NYRB have Montreal at home in next one, they will be overpriced as hell. So can't really back them, even if their current form is very good. Columbus have Colorado in next one, so they will have a good shot of getting 3 points.
Montreal just couldn't resist to waste result. All those 2 against goalkeeper they missed bite them in the end, where SJ scored in last minutes again. Was lucky that first 10-15 minutes haven't resulted in SJ goal and Montreal got one. But at least my thinking was right, SJ went forward and tried their "mosh pit" tactics again, which allowed Montreal to play their favorite counter-attacking style. So with such big odds, this matchup was a nice opportunity. They survived the storm, played counter, scored 2 goals from nothing and wasted 2 or more 100% moments and got punished for not realising them. As for SJ I guess they're just walking the path of least resistance. All they try to do is overload box, and wait for ball to bounce right. It's their way of playing attacking style, because they understand they won't win anything with their defence. Problem is they don't have personel for their tactic. And by doing it they also improve opoonents defence, that just need to be composed, position themselves right and clear the ball. No need to run, tackle or watch offside line. Anyway SJ odds are insane, and with them playing like that game after game it's hard to see any value in them, especially in home games. They desperately need a win in next one against Toronto, but odds will be awful. Will think about that one, mabe Toronto and Chivas right now are autofade fade in road games.

[ExeRok]

LA win at odds 1.813 Pinnacle L (0-1)
Total record: 12.5 wins 11.5 losses for 2% ROI.
Lots of bad beats again, nothing else to do but keep fighting. Slow start is really dissapointing, because lines are getting better and with schedule like that (3 games in 7 days) it's hard to pick good spots often. You never know how the team will perform, or who will be given rest.
Will post midweek bets later.

[ExeRok]

Tough card today, but here are my thoughts:
Portland @ Dallas: Dallas is best team and all, but their superb home form gives some reasons to bet against them. No team, however great they seemed to be, finished season with more than 10-11 wins. I would say that 11 is average if you think this team is great. So with 5 of 5 for Dallas at the moment, you can expect them to go the rest of the way with 50/50. So betting them at 2 against team that is very capable of taking points on the road doesn't seem like a value bet. Plus they collapsed couple of times this season (not at home) and I never really thought they are playing that well. So betting Dallas may be a bad idea. As for Portland, they have +1 today at 1.47, and they are playing best home team atm in the league. They had +1 against San Jose at 1.74. Just another example of how lines are dead wrong about SJ, and how they improve day by day. Feel like it's 1-1 type of game.
MTL @ NYRB: Betting correct scores 1-0 2-0 in this one, just because NYRB is on the list of teams who haven't finished with it yet.
NY is on 3 game win streak, historical probability of it's ending makes odds on their win pathetic. MTL +0.5 looks very good in this one.
RSL @ NER: With RSL finaly playing better, and NER playing at home there's actually hope for game in this one. Bookies seems to be dead wrong with worst under odds, well that's the game. Maybe going for over 2,5 is risky, but over 2 is also at good price. There is ton of value in this one, and game might not be as boring as it's expected to be.
Seattle @ SKC: Normaly, I would love those odds. But this spot just makes no sense. Would be funny if Seattle will get their sh*t together and perfome very well in this one, after awful game against much weaker opponents.
Houston @ DC: Like the under in this one. Usually not a good idea when both teams want to go for W, but with this teams, it will be even better. They struggle with offence, so their tries to go for W will improve defencive quality.
Tor @ SJ: Sj in must win situation. A good one, the best matchup you can get. At home, against team like Toronto. Toronto is always good for road losing streaks and losing streaks in general. Not so long ago their coach talked about lack of strong personalities. And that's exactly what they need to break through. But since team don't have them, and their offence finaly starting to cool off, it will be a tough game for Toronto. SJ allow a lot of goals at home, so over is good option. But since you can't count on Toronto to help with this one, SJ to win seems much better. Odds are not that bad, it'll probably be easy one.

[Inkwell77]

Exerok, do you know what the odds opened and closed on the New England/RSL game?

Sbrodds is messed up in regards to that game I believe. No line at Pinnacle according to sbrodds.

[ExeRok]

Exerok, do you know what the odds opened and closed on the New England/RSL game?

Sbrodds is messed up in regards to that game I believe. No line at Pinnacle according to sbrodds.

09.05.13 02:59	New England Revolution	Real Salt Lake	2,84	3,19	2,75	0	1,952	0	1,971	2	2,08	1,826	06.05.13 15:30
	New England Revolution	Real Salt Lake	2,61	3,3	2,95	0	1,862	0	2,06	2.25	1,943	1,962	09.05.13 03:50

[ExeRok]

Midweek results:

Sorry for not posting actual bets, they were in my write ups and hopefully it helped somebody.
MTL @ NYRB: Was so close to cashing in on first bet, but Robbles strike again. This guy is unreal, I know he makes good saves almost every game, but his mistakes happen almost as often. They are very dependable on Henry at the moment, so when he will miss games, it will be a great time to fade NY.
RSL @ NER: The trend continues, and this game went over 2.5 despite odds saying it should be under game. A lot of good moments, but teams took their time before actually scoring. Still, game went as expected and there was a missed penalty in the end.
Seattle @ SKC: Ofcourse they did. At least Seattle played like they used to in defence, so that's a good sign going forward. Not a team to be trusted but can be a good team to try their luck in away games. Next game against SJ will be crucial, will they use that lucky win to build on and start playing better, or continue to be like that. SKC continue their sporadic play against better teams, something to remember about them.
Portland @ Dallas: Nice game, a lot of action. Mentioned before that Portland is not afraid on the road, run with anybody and create moments. A great team for away overs and this game should've went over too.
Houston @ DC: Was wrong about under in this one, really overestimated DC's defence. Maybe it's early to tell, but guys just quit. Don't even try to show something positive. First time I saw Houston so confident, that's what DC's play do to you. DC is losing games before they're started, so fading them would've been much better option. DC is leading group of bad teams (+Toronto and Chivas atm) to be faded consistently.
Toronto @ SJ: Was not easy, but they got it done. Quakers struggle with their efficiency again, 3 shots on goal with 17 shots taken. But they controled this game and if not for poor realisation, this game would be easy win for them. Should be interesting game for them against Seattle this weekend. Toronto's coach doing fine job of destroing team's morale, so there's a good reason to believe, that they'll play bad in nearest matches. It's good news, because their schedule will be softer, and they'll get good odds.
No odds for weekend yet, so will post when available.

[ExeRok]

Chicago -0.25 and over 2.5
Montreal -0.25
Seattle -0.25
Van/LA over 2.5 and LA pk
Columbus win (1-0/2-0 correct scores)
NYRB win
Dallas -1
Portland -1

[ExeRok]

Portland -1 and over 2.5
Houston not to score at 3.45 (if you believe bookies are right about this game going under 2.5)
Last bet makes a lot of sense if you are looking for best value. SKC allowed 15 goals on the road, with league average of 26+. They haven't started well, but still stay in the same area. Houston is good at scoring at home, but they are 31-32 goal scoring team, with same average of 26+. So:
15 allowed in league where teams allow 26.6 on average (road games)
31 scored in leage where teams score 26.6 on average (home games)
You can feel the difference. SKC is streaky, they already had a good defensive run. Now the could be on a new one, if you don't count their late blunder against 10 man Seattle. I guess it makes SKC +0.5 or pk bets looking good too.

[camelbreath$]

Leaning Under 2 +120 in Houston/Kansas City? Yes or no, what do you think?

[psycrow]

how was the results till now (ROI) and will be future picks?

[ExeRok]

Only one midweek game, but a good one to bet.
Los Angeles @ Philadelphia:
I expected a little higher odds, but being known powerhouse doesn't help LA odds in any kind of situation. Still both team's current form should be very different, from what their last results show.
Philadelphia coming in with draw at home and win on the road. They couldn't win home game, even though Seattle had their worst game of the season and was creating moment for Phily. Last game against Chicago they used heroics from their goalkeeper and many wasted chances by hosts, to escape with completely undeserved victory. Before that they lost to a very weak NER team, and looked terrible. So from my perspective, they look terrible and points they get are not connected to the level of their play. Their defence has been a constant weakness whole season, and that will be the key for this game.
LA coming in after two poor perfomances, especially on offence. They burried their own grave against Houston, with missed penalty and many chances. Their last game was one of the worst games of the season, so it actually helps our chances. They are a strong team and they'll probably play well after a bad game. Historically they are a good team to back on a 2 game losing streak. They had problems with offence, but they are facing a bad defence. They also expecting Robby Keane to be back in the line up, which will also give them much needed boost.
So it comes down to this:
Phily is playing bad, has on of the weakest defences in the league and below mediocre home team in wins and goals scored/allowed.
LA hit a bump on offence, but they expecting Keane back, play weak defensive team and are good with bouncing back after tough losses. They are one of the top road teams in wins, and a top team in goals scored in away games. This is a dream matchup for them in current situation to overcome their struggles with scoring. Home team won't be looking to put numbers on D (they never do) so I'm expecting 2+ goals from Galaxy in this one. So my main bet is:
LA Galaxy -0.25 @ 2.23 Pinnacle
Other options are LA team total >1 at 1.6 (very safe bet), LA >1.5 at 2.34, Over 2.5 for game at 2.11

There's also a game in Canadian championship. I really like MTL there and I think their rotation guys will have a good game even if some starters will be given rest. In semifinal against Toronto they were thrown into tough situation, now they are at home where they play very well. I think the attitude has also changed, they weren't all that interested in this tournament, but fans stand did well to make them rethink things. Now with slot to NACL on the horizon they should try to do their best in home game, because second leg at Vancouver will be very tough. Vancouver has been dead serious about this tournament from the start, so they will play injured starters to win this at their home soil. Thinking about under, but definately like home win at 1.7+.

[ExeRok]

Playing Montreal to win at 1.9. I don't see the reason why the odds increased. Seems like Vancouver will use this match to rest players, and won't risk with injured/recovering starters. They are looking ahead for rivalry game against Portland. Montreal exactly opposite, they have 10 day rest before their next game, so they are focused on this game and looking only for the victory. There's also much more, like Montreal being very good home team, while Vancouver struggles on the road even when they play starters. But main thing is that it will probably be one sided game, where Whitecaps will try to escape with least possible damage. Very high odds for this combination of factors.

[swordsandtequila]

With you tonight, took Montreal -.5/-1 @ +129 this morning. Good luck tonight!

[andyrocha90]

Galaxy 4-1

Good call on the -0.5 bro!

[swordsandtequila]

Had Galaxy ml to cushion the blow in Montreal. Wtf, 0-0? Sounds like a garbage game.

[ExeRok]

Just a lean, so decide for yourself bet it or not.
Last fade against Philadelphia's weak defence ended well, with LA scoring 4 goals. Time for another episode:
Chicago have been terrible with road scoring this season with 1 goal i 4 games, but let's look at the big picture.
Historically, Chicago have been a good road scoring team. Even if they declined, there's no way they score 4.25 goals (current rate) on a road in whole season. Lowest number was 10-11 goals, so even if they suddenly became awfull, improvement in away scoring is incoming. Shots statistics show exactly the same. They have 4.22 shots on goal and 12.6 shots per game. Both those numbers are near league average. So what brings their scoring down is their conversion on those shots. They find the net only on 16% of their shots, and that's abnormaly low. League average is consistently 30%, and the lowest for the season was 22%. This happend for just one team, all others were very close to 30% in full season. I have no reason to believe that Chicago is going to be such a poor scoring team this season, so their shot productivity is definately going to increase. What better way to increase it, than on easy chances that Philadelphia can present. So:
Chicago to score @ 1.53
Chicago Team Total >1 @ 2.28
Chicago might be the team to keep an eye on for some away surprises.

[ExeRok]

Real Salt Lake @ Chivas:
Last week's Chivas fade was successfull, with 3-0 win for Portland. So I suggest to continue with it, because nothing changed for this team, and they're still a mess. They are one of the worst home teams historically, with just 8 wins in 34 games. They score few and allow a lot. All this trends continue into this season. They are getting inflated odds, because it's home game and their surprising start (which is long gone by now). But they are actually better on the road, so there's no real home advantage or anything, that would make them play any better than they did last couple of games.
Their opponents, RSL is finally hitting their stride. After a slow start and some stagnant offence, they are now starting to find their groove, scoring at least 2 in their last 3 games. So after all their inconsistency I think it's time for them to show decent results. This is strong team, one of the best on the road. They keep the ball and play great defence on the road (among top3 teams in the league). Scoring on the road has been hard for them, but as I described, they shoudn't have any problem with scoring in their next game. They are on a roll, and Chivas is very weak on defence. So their only flaw is covered in this one.
All these sums up in a very good matchup for visiting team. Every angle shows advantage for RSL, so they'll end up as winners most of the time. There is safe option with -0.25 on RSL, but I really like their current form, and I will try to get max value and bet straight win. I will play -1 or -1.5 for smaller size, but my main bet is:
Real Salt Lake to win @ 2.25 Pinnacle
Columbus @ Toronto:
That's the situation we got in this game: Toronto is on a 3 game losing streak. They won just 1 game out of 10. They allowed a goal in every game. Their offensive productivity stats are at bottom of table. They won just 9 of their 39 home games. Their goals/shots on goals % is dropping fast, just as I expected. And yet they are the favourites...
Nobody in their right mind would bet this team to win, especially in their current form. And with odds of a favourite, it's just insane. So line value is clearly on their opponents side.
Columbus can't possibly be that bad, to be and underdog. But let's take a look at their team profile:
Their results have been sporadic, not always up to their level of play. But they played well consistently. They had 1 bad game whole season, everything else have been just the matter of luck. As example 3 home games I saw:
vsPhily draw, vs DC win 3-0, vsColorado lose. All games were pretty much the same, dominated by Columbus. And if the ball would find the net (like it did in game against DC) they would win them all easily. Add to this their losses to Vancouver (outshot them, was anybody's game) and NYRB (missed penalty and allowed late goal). So that's been their story, they play well but can't get deserved result. Key for me is that they play much better against weaker teams, which will help their chances against Toronto. Columbus never been spectacular road team, but they've never been bad either. This season (even with all bad luck with results) they are showing improvements on the road.
So I suggest to bet stronger team that's getting ton of value in this line, and really is the only side you can take. With given odds there is no need to count on their win, which eleminates all weaknesses and doubts Columbus have. Pk is definately a good option, but I prefer covering draw result, so my bet is:
Columbus +0.25 @ 1.78 Pinnacle
Portland @ Vancouver:
It's very hard to pick a side in this one and everything can happen, but I think it's a great possibility for over.
Main reason is that both teams will probably score. Portland is playing great in away games. I've seen them attacking and playing equal football against strong teams with excellent home records, like SJ, SKC and Dallas. Some of those draws they got could easily be their victories. They are not afraid of away games and it pays off. They scored 8 goals in 5 very tough away games and there's no reason they gonna stop. Vancouver is in great position too, they earn most of their points and score most of their goals (70%) at home. This season they've improved and if not for some wasted chances, their goal total could be skyhigh by now. So goalscoring is not the problem for any of these teams, and shot stats confirm it. Both teams average 5+ shots on goal and about 14 shots. Those numbers are significantly higher than league averages. So both teams are offensive minded and score efficiently. And the last reason is that both teams are not too good on defence. Vancouver kept clean sheet in just one game. Portland play good defence, but they don't allow to score only against weaker teams, in games where they dominate for all 90 minutes. On the road they allowed at least 1 goal in every game. Plus both teams are extremely vulnerable when they play equal games against strong opponents. And this is what this game is going to be. Both teams are looking to get points and play offensive football. Great situation for 3-4 goal game.
Over 2.5 @ 2.08 Pinnacle
Have two more but will post them later.

[swordsandtequila]

Solid writeup, confirms my own leans. Good luck!

[ExeRok]

Sporting Kansas City @ DC United:
I was looking for some other odds for this game and they were terrible for SKC, that's why I skipped it. But odds that I see now leave no choice but to bet them.
I already wrote about DC United last week, they put up a relatively good fight against Dallas. But they are still a team on 7 game losing streak, and they collected points in 2 out of 10 games. So just betting their opponents to win was +money, and I haven't seen any signs that this will stop. And even if it will. we don't need to bet SKC to win, because odds on pk are very nice. So even if this game will be a draw it won't be a disaster, and I don't expect DC being able to win here.
Main reason is because SKC is very good road team. Already wrote about them last week, but they are among top3 teams in away wins historically, they score more than than league average, and they play great road defence. So this is a very tough matchup for DC, who struggle on offence, and can't stop opponents from scoring at all. This is just what SKC need. SKC has been playing great whole season. They had a little 3 game stretch of poor offence, but they turned it into 5 game clean sheet perfomance, which proved that they are going to play great defence this season also. Thing that drive odds so high is probably their results, but they had only 1 deserved lose (@ LA), all other point losses were flukes. At Toronto they had 69% possesion, 16 shots and 20+ crosses. They weren't able to capitalize, and lost to Toronto, who had just 5 shots and scored 2 goals from them. Seattle scored undeserved 10vs11 goal on last seconds, list goes on. Truth is that they had a very tough schedule, and they still have great results even with ton of bad luck. They are playing great and already shot down some top home sides of the league like Houston and New York. DC is nowhere near that conversation, so the job should be 10 times easier for SKC. They dominated in all away games against weak opponents, and it should be same story in this game.
SKC pk at around 1.7 is a very safe option, but I like this matchup too much not to bet it riskier. So:
SKC -0.25 @ 2.04 Pinnacle
Tough lines, tough situations in other games, but this is the last one I would really like to bet.
Dallas @ Seattle:
I bet Seattle for many games this season, expecting their slow start to end. Now seems like the time, and this team is looking good with impressive 4-0 win in their last game. This is a great home team historically with 20 wins in 34 home games. So with great form and great stats, they are getting 2+ odds to win. Too good to be true, but that's where I like this matchup the most:
Dallas supposed to be "top team" and that's driving odds up, but their chances in this game are very questionable for me. First of all, illusion of their power comes from their home friendly schedule. No doubt they are good at home but that's where they played 7 out of 11 games. In their road games they were not so impressive. In 4 road games, they lost to Chivas, got a lucky late goal win in anybodys game against NER, wasted 2 goal lead and drawed vs Toronto, wasted 2 goal lead and should've lost but drawed against Vancouver. So they played against 3 worst and 1 mediocre home teams, allowed opponents to score 2 or more goals 3 times in 4 games and shoud've ended it with 2 draws 2 losses. So it's clear this is two-faced team, they are nowhere near top team on the road. But they are given credit for their home perfomance, so their chances looks terrible in away game against good home side in my eyes. You can also add that they are missing important starters and they will play rookie defenders. Seattle will meet them with 40 thousand filled stadium and one of the scariest offensive lines in the league. The way Dallas have been playing on the road, I don't see them taking points in this game.
Odds could be better, and Dallas is tough to bet against, but I like this situation. Both teams adds value, with Seattle still questioned after slow start and Dallas recognized for their home perfomance, so this is the risk worth taking. It might be last time odds are so high for Seattle at home and Dallas opponents on the road.
Seattle win @ 2.04 Pinnacle *
Write ups are from yesterday and odds on seattle dropped significantly today. Playing at at 1.84 (current odds) might be a bad idea, so decide for yourself.

[camelbreath$]

Any leans/thoughts on Red Bulls to win at home vs. Galaxy and Philadelphia Union over Chicago? ....

[ExeRok]

Any leans/thoughts on Red Bulls to win at home vs. Galaxy and Philadelphia Union over Chicago? ....

I wrote about Chicago's situation couple of posts before. I think it makes their potential chances better, than what bookies give and will give them credit for. But key word is potential. If you play value, they are the side to back.
NY-LA is tough game for me, there's no real edges there. Hopefully will be an entertaining game. Henry is playing, so no NY fade.
I've been doing little Over/Under streaks research, seems like 2over streak (LA is on it) convert to 3 over very rarely. Plus LA is not an over team. So from numbers perspective, this game should stay under. Odds are pretty good too at almost even money.

[stemellor]

Thanks for the write-ups. Literally just put 3u on SKC as well. It would be rude not to at those odds!
Might tail your Salt Lake pick on Monday. Again, odds are solid.
Thanks again for such a detailed write-up.

[ExeRok]

"Houston has the best ability to overcome heavily defensive approaches from opponents. Great movement without the ball + teamwork and passing. Can count on them to win and create chances agains some NER type teams, that just have 10 players in the box, and wait to kick the ball on the other side of field to their lonely striker."
That's thoughts from month ago, let's see if they turn out to be right. Houston playing NER today. NER is dragging everybody into under games, they are 2-8 in over/unders. Odds are bad for both Hou win and under, but may be not bad enough...
Also New York is yet to finish with correct score of 1-0 or 2-0. Already wrote some reasons for under, so 1-0 2-0 NY win looks like a great possibility today.
SJ vs Colorado left. Some interesting points are: SJ odds are getting more adequate, because Colorado +1 at 1.68 now, and Portland was at 1.74 just a month ago. But I still think they are overvalued as hell. If they don't get on some insane run, it will be a very tough season for them. And their schedule looks bad, with 6 road games in next 8. So this game might be last real chance to use their unrealistic home odds. And thinking long term, with 1/3 of the season done, this next stretch might be crucial one. It's where they will establish what kind of season they will have, and where odds will still be little off. Turning season around on the road might be a tough task. So my idea is to fade them on this road trip (and 1 home game against LA). Ofcourse every single game will need extra attention, but in terms of results, I think they won't get a lot of points. Let's see how it plays out.
Almost forgot interesting part. Both teams are on big runs. Colorado is on 6 game under streak, while SJ is on 4 game over. So obvious that streak will be over for on of the teams, numbers show that game is probably staying under. SJ had run with unders of their own, and stats show that overs are harder to sustain. So under in this one too.
Hard to keep all that stuff in head but will try to do better job.

[mantorras77]

Great job today ExeRok!