MLS 2013 Season

[ExeRok]

All bets are 1u(regular bet):
Portland Timbers pk at odds 2.49 Pinnacle
Hosts are in a very bad shape. Not only their play was poor at the start of the season, they have ton of injuries to key starting players. Even with them in line up Rapids don't control the ball, and always lose in possesion and shots on target category. As home team, you ususally want this to be your strength, not weakness. Their starting GK is a third option, defenders are young and not very good, so you can't expect strong showing and lack of mistakes from them. So what we have here, is team that's not very good when healthy, and in this game there will be 4-5 starters missing, with bad young players taking their place.
Portland looks great in this matchup, they've been very tough to beat, but weren't able to get away with many points. Part of the problem was that they were playing good teams, and felt behind for no reason. But in this match they will definately have confidence and skill advantage to take 3 points on away soil. I really like their chances, cause they are desperate for victory, while their opponents are very weak.
Risky option is to take Portland win for 3.58, but I prefer to stick with safer one. There is no way they should be underdogs here.
Over 2.5 goals seems legit option too.
Montreal Impact pk at odds 3.19 Pinnacle
This is going to be very interesting game. Montreal is on a very unexpected run of 4 straight wins to start the season. Coaching change made big difference and now this team is an elite one, ready to make playoffs and be right at the top. But still their run must end soon and Sporting KC seems like the team to do it. That has to be reasoning behind odds but I feel completely different. Unexpected or not, their streak is result of their quality and confidence. They've been playing their game and opponents just can't deal with it. Veteran striker Di Vaio is in perfect shape. He have great awareness and feel of the game and he uses his main weapon exceptionally well against weak and unexpirienced MLS defenders. Italian have multiple scoring opportunities every match, and realisation is excellent in last couple of matches. Midfielders provide great support and know how to get him the ball in dangerous areas. Their defence is great, with Nesta and Ferrari leading the way. Nesta got injured, but the effort is there even without him. When he is healthy, this is by far the best defence in the league. As for Sporting, things are not looking so good. They have their key players returning from national duty. Adding to this is their weak bench players, who failed to deliever in offence. The team is scoreless for 2 straight games and guys like Sapong and Saad are not game changers off the bench. Despite keeping clean sheet, their defence has some problems in it too. Jerome Mechack and Oriol Rossell are young players, and definately not in the same skill category as Italian veterans of Montreal.
The way I see it, Montreal is a stronger team at the moment, and have everything going for them. Their opponents, despite being very strong home team, have some rusty key players, weak spots in their strating line up, and problems with scoring the ball. Even though under 2,5 seems to be super obvious choice, I think neither of teams will play it safe and we may see crazy things happening.
So my final choice is to take road team +0, because odds are too sweet to pass on it.
Houston Dynamo win at 2.06 with Pinnacle
Start of the season has been hard for many "powerhouse" teams of last season. San Jose is one of them, and they already lost some points. Wondolowski finally found his touch, but he missed many chances. In my opinion, last season was a pinnacle of his career and he probably won't improve or even repeat this kind of perfomance. Same goes for his team. They already have some young and unexpirienced players who are starting (Fucito and Harden), and their bench is very weak. Their coach don't even use 1 substitute in some games, and guys who usually come in (Attakora, Gargan, Jahn, Garza, Cato) are not much of a spark. With all this in mind, Houston looks much better in this matchup. They are a very strong home team coming of a win against Vancouver. Their midfield is rock solid and they have good rotation of quality players. Dominating midfield will be key for Houston, because Quakers are not very versatile with their formation and style of play. They use regular 4-4-2 and won't be looking to play in more defensive manner. This will allow Houston to put extra pressure and create more chances to score. I believe this game will end with Houston win and more than 2.5 goals scored. But SJ is a team that is capable of scoring and they were best road team last season, so safer option with -0.25 or DNB also makes sense.

[ExeRok]

SEATTLE +0.5 AT ODDS 1.69
Seattle had a very rough start. Now with no distractions and absences team focus is solely on getting results and points in MLS. This is a very deep and talented team and they acquired Obafemi Martens to add to their impressive attack. With so many talented players offensive woes will stop soon, and players are very motivated to end this bad streak. This game is believed to be decided in the midfield, but Seattle have nice advantage there. Injury to Morales, and guys like Gil and Velasquez in RSL line up, who are not very good and been the main reason behind their weak offense. Their central defenders are also not very impressive, so it will be very tough for hosts to get something out of this game. If Seattle show their true level today, they will dominate this away game. They've been very good at it last season, and RSL is nothing special at the moment.

[gossie]

appreciate to your write

[gossie]

SEATTLE +0.5 AT ODDS 1.69
Seattle had a very rough start. Now with no distractions and absences team focus is solely on getting results and points in MLS. This is a very deep and talented team and they acquired Obafemi Martens to add to their impressive attack. With so many talented players offensive woes will stop soon, and players are very motivated to end this bad streak. This game is believed to be decided in the midfield, but Seattle have nice advantage there. Injury to Morales, and guys like Gil and Velasquez in RSL line up, who are not very good and been the main reason behind their weak offense. Their central defenders are also not very impressive, so it will be very tough for hosts to get something out of this game. If Seattle show their true level today, they will dominate this away game. They've been very good at it last season, and RSL is nothing special at the moment.

just remind that Seattle will be facing Lagune 3 days later for the cup
i think their attention will be rather on there

[DarkNite]

I like Montreal Impact tonight.
Good luck to your pick!!!

[ExeRok]

Thanks for support guys! Results were not very pleasing:
Portland Timbers pk at odds 2.49 Pinnacle void
Montreal Impact pk at odds 3.19 Pinnacle loss
Houston Dynamo win at 2.06 with Pinnacle win
SEATTLE +0.5 AT ODDS 1.69 loss
Guessed with totals, but no one to blame for not betting them. Montreal was not even close, but I still liked my chances, cause historically 4win streaks continued 5 out of 13 times (38%). So odds were good not only for pk, but for a straight win too. But I will write more on streaks later, did a little research and ready to implement those stats.

[ExeRok]

Portland - Houston Over 2.5 at odds 2.11 Pinnacle
Houston off an impressive win at home, now on the road against Portland. They won 2 straight, but in last 2 years, they never had 3 wins in a row. So this game won't be easy for them by any means. Portland with yet another comeback, but again they fail to achieve a victory, because they allow opponents to score first and early in the game. They will have great motivation to get W at home against one of the better teams in the league.
So let's take a look at this match up:
Portland's weak diffence is one of the main reasons behind their struggle in getting wins. It's been so for the last couple of years: last year they were 3rd from bottom at home, and 2nd on the road. And it's no different this year. They already at bottom of table with 8 goals allowed. Their coach is changing rotation every game, but it doesn't seem to help that much. With players like 20 year old Andrew Baptiste as the corner stone of defence, they won't have much success at this end of the field.
Houston, despite strong play and being number 1 in power ratings this week, have problems of their own. They are consistenly weaker squad on the road. In 2011 they finished second in conference, but had 2-6-9 road record (same as bottom teams). In 2012 they had -12 goal differential and league worst 70% of allowed goals in away games.
I think it's pretty obvious what type of game it will be. Both teams will be looking for victory and will create many cnahces. Sweet opportunity, especially at those odds.

[ExeRok]

SPORTING KC TO WIN AT ODDS 1.73 Pinnacle
Odds already dropped a little, but I still like the chances of hosts. They were dominant last week and stopped Montreal 4 game win streak, and they are very strong team at home, especially in defense. And if this is not enough, let's take a look at their opponents. DC United started season in poor form. They were prolific offensive team last season, but they struggled this year. Add to that their road game problems. Despite finishing 2nd in conference last year, they had -10 goal difference and very few points. Sporting KC is nemesis team for them last couple of seasons, they lost all 5 meetings, including 1 preseason game this year. So to sum everything up:
One of the top teams at home against weak road team in bad shape with awful head-to-head stats. Choice is obvious in this one.

[andyrocha90]

also DeLeon and Rosario are out for United. big missings on the offensive end

[ExeRok]

Dallas @ Toronto food for thought:
Dallas is on 3 game win streak. I did reasearch of all kind of streaks in last seasons, to see if there are any patterns. 3 wins turning into 4 wins was one of the most consistent trends, it hits around 33-35%. So just from that, you need Dallas win odds to be at 3+, but it's lower now at 2.67.
Type of teams that achieve 4 wins is very different from season to season. In 2011 it was just 2 teams but 2 times for both, last year half of league did it, but once for every team. There is no real angle here, but there is one in how streaks end. Almost all 4 or more win streaks ended in away games, usually vs strong home side:
LAG @ NYRB
RSL @ POR
RSL @ DC
List goes on, but 10 of 13 streaks ended in away games.
So it's one thing that will be usefull to remember in future. Not knowing this already cost me in SKC - Montreal game. So, there is a logic in staying away from backing hot team to win on the road, cause this is where streaks usually end. It's probably true for 3 game streaks too.
So this is another reason to believe, that Dallas won't achieve 3 points.
One more reason is that this team seems strange to me. They are very hard to figure out. In a draw heavy 2011 year, they had fewest draws. Last year, when draws happened rarely, they had more than any other team with 12. In great start of season, they already showing signs of inconsistency. At Chivas they throw a game with terrible decisions and defense. At NER they used the same mistakes from opponents to get victory in last minutes. The way they are playing is just wrong. With potent offensive players sitting on bench, they usually play 4-2-3-1, with lonely striker, and 2 defensive midfielders. They just kill their potential with this, and it can cost them, especially against weaker teams.
So Dallas chances doesn't look well here, but I have hard time believing in Toronto too. They are much improved team this year and results show that, but they are putting like 2 shots on goal in a game, and it's never a good sign. Still, they are looking better at given odds, and may be worth a shot.
As for losing and draw streaks, I will write about them when they will pop up.

[ExeRok]

also DeLeon and Rosario are out for United. big missings on the offensive end

Thanks for input! I expected them to take defensive approach anyway, they will be happy to get a draw in my opinion. So it's up to SKC to win this game and score. But you can never have too much angles and info, and this won't hurt our chances.

[swordsandtequila]

I'm on SKC -½/-1 @ -105. Good luck.

[ExeRok]

I'm on SKC -½/-1 @ -105. Good luck.

Good luck! Hope you hit with -0,75, I feel like in terms of "power" it's definately correct, but in terms of results we will see 1 goal win most of the time.

[ExeRok]

League has been pretty much the same as last season in terms of draws(~25%) and home winners (50+%). So with that in mind, I looked at card to find more home winners. My 2nd favourite after SKC is Columbus:
Columbus win at odds 2.01 Pinnacle
Columbus coming into this game with a solid start to their season. Their play been stable and it's probably sign that they will improve this season from being mediocre, to playoff contention. There are open spots right now, with the way DC and Chicago are playing...
They use same tactic in all kind of games, so they are comfortable with their style and it produces results. So they are already in the season, not trying to find their game or heat up.
Philadelphia is completely different animal. Yet another team with bunch of young players as cornerstone of their defense. Like 4 of 5 guys are under 23, and I can't say they are stars in the making. Their formation changes from game to game, but it bring little to no success. They got beat up bad by unhealthy New York team. They were lucky to lose by one goal. It's really hard to expect anything good from this team, when unexpereinced players are trying to adapt to new way of playing every game. They shown that when they play solid teams they have no chance and allow 2+ goals at least. This is not the team you want to bet in a road game.
They way I see it, it's a great opportunity for Columbus team to earn 3 points. The odds show that they are still under radar, and it's nice opportunity to use it against weak visiting team. This game has the same odds as SJ - Vancouver, but I find it much more one sided in terms of current form and "strength". Over 1.5 goals for Columbus offered and same price, so it's another option for this game.

[ExeRok]

RSL @ Colorado under 2,5 at odds 1.81 Pinnacle:
Odds are not to good, and when you look at line ups you may think this bet is not too smart, but here are my thoughts:
All head-to-head meetings between this two teams in last couple of years stayed under. They played already this season, and game ended with 1:1 score, and 1 "lucky" goal. Scoring is a big problem for Colorado in my opinion, and I expect they will help to keep this under 2.5 by not scoring at all. RSL is playing good defense on the road, but they struggled with offense. Still I like them better in this match up and they'll probably get some points in this one. But type of game will be underish most of the time and goals won't come easy. Maybe it's just a feeling, but it feels like the right thing to bet in this game.

[ExeRok]

NYRB pk at odds 2.04 Pinnacle
It's strange to see Chicago as slight favourite here. They have been playing awful. You can't expect them to lose many of their games with 3+ goals allowed, but it's a clear sing of their defensive quality. They lack talent and veteran presence, so don't expect them to suddenly start playing better football. Even their coach believes that they are underdogs and need to flood midfield to stop NYRB. And NY is ok road team too.
Odds for NY are high, cause Henry will start on bench, while Espindola will miss this game. This team has no problem with quality of rotation, and injuries won't cause big trouble. And you can't forget that Chicago also have Duka Alex and Nyarko questionable for this game, with bencher Palladini expected to start in this game.
So there is a big gap in quality of players and current form between these two teams. New York is a very active offensive team, they put up a lot of shots and produce many chances. Last year they were 3rd best team in away goals, so not much hope for weak defensive line of Chicago to stop them. With more people trying to destruct in the middle, they won't have enough offense to produce result for them. Have to go with NYRB in this one.

[ExeRok]

Portland - Houston Over 2.5 at odds 2.11 Pinnacle L
SPORTING KC TO WIN AT ODDS 1.73 Pinnacle W
Columbus win at odds 2.01 Pinnacle L
RSL @ Colorado under 2,5 at odds 1.81 Pinnacle W
NYRB pk at odds 2.04 Pinnacle
Result for week: 2-3
Another dissapointing week, all bets were definately right, but luck was on the other side. It's always easy to write long story about unluck and all the wrong things that happened at the same time, but why waste time. Odds for next week are available, so time to move on.

[Bluedragon]

Interested in seeing what you have.

bruv. get 'em next time.

[ExeRok]

Trying to catch value early. Last week missed on better odds in most of the games.
Houston win at odds 1.77 Pinnacle
After expected bad perfomance on the road, Houston back at home with their focus on attempt to tie Real Salt Lake's MLS-record unbeaten run (29) when they host the Chicago Fire on April 14. Fans like those records, and players will be aware of it. So with the way they play at home and record in mind, they will definately show up.
Chicago might get a morale boost after their home win against NYRB, but I still doubt their level. All their goals came from nothing, silly mistakes and bad play from defense allowed them to score. But their main problem remains in defense, they still allow ton of chances. Houston is one of the best teams in goalscoring efficiency (30+% of shots on goal end up in the net), so they will be more than happy to have some extra chances. Even if Chicago will play better than in the begining of the season, they still have to face scariest home team with strong motivation. So I just can't expect this game going their way.

[andyrocha90]

True bro. New York has some serious issues with their defensive line and their offensive players want to play like this is the EPL or something but just lack urgency.

Fire got their first win against a very poor side, doubt they will have any luck against Houston

[ExeRok]

True bro. New York has some serious issues with their defensive line and their offensive players want to play like this is the EPL or something but just lack urgency.

Fire got their first win against a very poor side, doubt they will have any luck against Houston

Chicago D was on their way to another 3+ goals, but Henry hit post and Luyindula wasted many chances. So I agree, won't be easy for them to repeat that in Houston game.

[Vaughany]

May play Dallas PK at home to Galaxy. I imagine Galaxy will start all key players tonight in Monterrey, maybe even give Donovan his first start of season. Fatigue may be an issue on Sunday

[ExeRok]

Seattle to win at odds 1.7 Pinnacle
Odds are quite surprising for a struggling home side, but let's look at this matchup:
Seattle coming into this game after nice game in CCL agains Santos Laguna. They created a lot of chances, but failed to capitalize on them. With a desperate need to end their slump, they now have only MLS to worry about and a great opportunity ahead. Home game against New England is as good as it gets. This is a must win for Sounders, they need to boost their confidence, get offense going and finaly make their fans happy. With all that's going on it won't be easy, but maybe their opponents can help:
New England is currently the worst team in MLS, haven't scored in forever. They are also dealing with a "bigger than soccer" issue in the wake of Kevin Alston's leukemia diagnosis. Their road history is terrible (1 win 14 losses 2 ties last season). There are really no reasons to back them in this game.

[ExeRok]

May play Dallas PK at home to Galaxy. I imagine Galaxy will start all key players tonight in Monterrey, maybe even give Donovan his first start of season. Fatigue may be an issue on Sunday

If you want my opinion, I won't fade LA only because of fatigue. I already wrote my concerns about Dallas in previous posts. They were unlucky not to get win at Toronto, but they played almost exactly as expected. LA can play and win on the road (7-5-5 5-7-5 last 2 years), and if they take the lead it will be very hard for Dallas to win this bet. Just don't like them in this spot for 1.75 pk.

[ExeRok]

Philadelphia - Toronto:
Still thinking about this one. I like 2 options, both pretty much same price: Under 2.5 and Phi win.
Home win is pretty obvious, when you look at Toronto road history 14 loses and 3 draws last year, and 0-2 this year. But betting all top favourites of the day can't be the way to go, so have to question hosts here. They are not scary at home (7w 8l 2d last year, 7 wins in 2011 when they were top 3 team in conference), so you can expect them to give away points occasionaly. Maybe I'm overthinking this, but surely you can doubt betting on home win, even if Toronto is in town.
What I really like here is under. All those things I wrote about Phili's D is true, and their coach praising them is just another example. Probably have nothing else to say about their lucky stride, but to call them spine of the team. SKC, NYRB, Columbus all created enough to score at least 3 goals. But this weakness won't be exploited in game against Toronto. Already wrote about their weak offense, and they somehow continue to score goals from nothing. This won't last forever. Their offense is "get the ball to Earnshaw", and there is no real threat behind this. Both teams have very few shots on goal, and with no real pressure on defense, this will stay low scoring most of the time, just because there will be 7-8 shots on goal. Philadelphia already had this kind of game at home, against NER, and it finished 1-0 with 6 shots on goal from both teams. I think this game will be similar and I will prefer to bet under.
Philadelphia Union/Toronto FC 13-April-2013 12:59 PM PST Total Under 2.5 for Game 1.862

[Vaughany]

Seattle to win at odds 1.7 Pinnacle
Odds are quite surprising for a struggling home side, but let's look at this matchup:
Seattle coming into this game after nice game in CCL agains Santos Laguna. They created a lot of chances, but failed to capitalize on them. With a desperate need to end their slump, they now have only MLS to worry about and a great opportunity ahead. Home game against New England is as good as it gets. This is a must win for Sounders, they need to boost their confidence, get offense going and finaly make their fans happy. With all that's going on it won't be easy, but maybe their opponents can help:
New England is currently the worst team in MLS, haven't scored in forever. They are also dealing with a "bigger than soccer" issue in the wake of Kevin Alston's leukemia diagnosis. Their road history is terrible (1 win 14 losses 2 ties last season). There are really no reasons to back them in this game.

Damnn thts bad for Alston, always thought he was a decent little player.

Will Martins be partnering Johnson up front?

[ExeRok]

Montreal win at odds 2.09 Pinnacle
Odds are too sweet for home side. Montreal played great at home last season and had the same record as top teams (10w 4l 3d). But their road problems were too much to overcome, and with only 2 wins and 12 losses they had the same record as bottom teams. They started season strong and already got 2 road wins, so this will be their area of improvement. At home they definately stay strong and finish with same or better stats. So we can expect 10+ wins in 17 games (59%).
Columbus have been playing well too, but they have little issues here and there, and their road perfomance have been consistently mediocre. They are "average" road team, with 9-10 losses in 17 games. I also like Di Vaio chances to catch Columbus defense on offside trap.
So to me it's simple: Montreal is one of the best teams in the league, strong home side with 60% of games won. Columbus lose 60% of road games against league (not every game is against Montreal or Houston). So chances of MTL to win in this game are much better than ~50% offered by bookies.

[gossie]

Trying to catch value early. Last week missed on better odds in most of the games.
Houston win at odds 1.77 Pinnacle
After expected bad perfomance on the road, Houston back at home with their focus on attempt to tie Real Salt Lake's MLS-record unbeaten run (29) when they host the Chicago Fire on April 14. Fans like those records, and players will be aware of it. So with the way they play at home and record in mind, they will definately show up.
Chicago might get a morale boost after their home win against NYRB, but I still doubt their level. All their goals came from nothing, silly mistakes and bad play from defense allowed them to score. But their main problem remains in defense, they still allow ton of chances. Houston is one of the best teams in goalscoring efficiency (30+% of shots on goal end up in the net), so they will be more than happy to have some extra chances. Even if Chicago will play better than in the begining of the season, they still have to face scariest home team with strong motivation. So I just can't expect this game going their way.

actually i have just checked some information and Huston has already 31 matches unbeatable at home since July 2011 (excluding CCL, if counted it is 34 matches)

[ExeRok]

Damnn thts bad for Alston, always thought he was a decent little player.

Will Martins be partnering Johnson up front?

He was injured midweek, so I wouldn't count on him being able to help. Even if he's in the lineup, it will just lower the odds.

actually i have just checked some information and Huston has already 31 matches unbeatable at home since July 2011 (excluding CCL, if counted it is 34 matches)

It's divided on new/old stadium I guess. This info is from official mls site, so it's legit. Not that big of a deal anyway, just added motivation for Houston.

[ExeRok]

Lean Vancouver-RSL to go over 2.5, let's see what happens.

[andyrocha90]

well. thats the last time I bet on a Seattle win.
lets face it, this is not the same Seattle from last year. all they do is touch touch touch, and nothing else. they have no one to take over creativity wise, and no one that knows how to finish. its getting pathetic how many easy looks they miss. all their strikers are incompetent, and the only one I see some potential is Neagle. Eddie Johnson had one good month of soccer, and now has completely fell of, despite his recent injury. These guys still need alot more games to figure out what kind of team they are even when Martins return, these guys are just not clicking. Only way Im betting on Seattle is if they are the underdog on a + handicap, despite their pathetic offense, their defense can hold a strong fort.

[ExeRok]

Wow, again 100 wasted chances and Seattle can't get win. Barely escaped with under, but game went crazy in the end (at half it was 3 shots on goal). Reminder for the future: Ashtone Morgan in the line up, good time to fade Toronto. This guy is total knucklehead, already lost his team 5 points.

[ExeRok]

well. thats the last time I bet on a Seattle win.
lets face it, this is not the same Seattle from last year. all they do is touch touch touch, and nothing else. they have no one to take over creativity wise, and no one that knows how to finish. its getting pathetic how many easy looks they miss. all their strikers are incompetent, and the only one I see some potential is Neagle. Eddie Johnson had one good month of soccer, and now has completely fell of, despite his recent injury. These guys still need alot more games to figure out what kind of team they are even when Martins return, these guys are just not clicking. Only way Im betting on Seattle is if they are the underdog on a + handicap, despite their pathetic offense, their defense can hold a strong fort.

It's frustrating to see bets lose like that time and time again, but there was 1 team playing and creating lots of moments. No mistake in that pick, not like we were playing Seattle for 1.4 or something.

[andyrocha90]

Yea. I was thinking under 2.5 at first, but then I actually thought this would be Seattle's breakthough game and end like 3-0 or 2-1.

[ExeRok]

Like 2 options for the upcoming games:
Colorado @ Chivas:
I still have no feel on Chivas team. But if they stay hot today, would be a great opportunity to risk with them -1 or -1.5. It's more of a Colorado fade for me. Their key for success was some random early goal, and that allowed them to get results and keep their opponents from scoring with more defensive approach. If Chivas scores first, this will be very tough game for Colorado, cause Chivas can definately run and counterattack fast. So for Colorado, offense can easily produce nothing, while their defense and game style will be put under some real pressure. Plus Colorado is not playing well on the road (3w 13l 1d with 35% of goals scored and 60+% of goals allowed). Risky bet on -1 or -0.75 at 2.65 odds is the best thing I can think of for this game.
NYRB @ DC
I like NYRB pk here. I still remember their last game, but hopefully that weak perfomance will help them today. In general, they played that game well, but made a lot of crucial mistakes. Also Chicago had many things go their way, and it helped them to pull it off. The most important thing is that NY came for victory, and they were very capable of achieving it. You want road team with that attitude.
DC will look to get W themselves, so it will be open game with more chances. DC is not playing well, and if NY won't make critical mistakes it will be tough for them to win here.