MLS 2013 Season

[andyrocha90]

New York is right on top of Seattle on my "incompetent team" list, can't trust them to get a win. and their defense is hilarious, im always rolling on the floor laughing when they get scored on.

DC United I believe has DeRosario back, this game can easily be a scoreless or end a draw somehow. but taking my chances with DC.

GL!

[ExeRok]

I'm trying to get a look on all teams in this new season and how they respond to different situations. So just wrote a lean to see if I'm thinking in a right direction.

[andyrocha90]

you were right on. Red Bulls showed up tonight

[ExeRok]

Montreal win at odds 2.09 Pinnacle L
Odds were the reason behind this and I still think they were good. Even guessed that Di Vaio will catch Columbus D. He scored but was called for non-existent offside. Feels like there was no mistake with this bet, but the choice was not the best one. Under should've been the play and that's my thinking after the whole thing is over:
MTL is still undervalued team, getting very good odds even at home. But this is 2/2 I lost with them, while "the odds were good enough". When you compare games, you can see that this one was quite close, while Seattle and Houston games were very one sided. Yes, they played weaker teams and had worse odds, but still it was 2-3 times better in terms of chances. You can't predict quality (I looked for [goals/shots on goals]% but that's a global one) so have to go with quantity. And that's where MTL can be problem. They are built for result (strict roles, playing on stregths of players, always same formation) not to dominate and score a lot. It's hard to put it in writing, but I have one analogy from basketball so may be this helps. They remind me of Memphis Grizzlies, who will win against the worst opponents by just a few points while the game is never in doubt. And you think that if you play ML you won't ever lose, but if you go with better odds for spread, it won't be easy.
So with that in mind, we add conditions of the field (I don't check that and that's my mistake) and there is much better option with under. The reasons would be: Close game (duels won, shots on goal, crosses are all 50/50) with not a lot of chances (8 shots on goal), quality sides (they missed 2 easy chances, scored 2 from tough situations so realisation was "fair" and score would be the same) and type of team MTL is. So even if MTL to win was a good bet and should'nt be changed, that U2.5 was the one I missed.
Will be interesting to see, how Columbus will play at Chicago next week. They showed different approaches to different situations, but they won against DC on the road in same spot.
Philadelphia Union/Toronto FC Total Under 2.5 for Game 1.862 W
Game went crazy in last minutes, but Toronto's goal is to blame. If it didn't happen, this one would be easy. First half ended with 3 shots on goal. Phily D confirmed my doubts, must be hard to stop offense that consist from 1 man from scoring...
Seattle to win at odds 1.7 Pinnacle L
Same old story for Seattle, tons of chances but can't score. Next game at Colorado is already a losebet for me.
Houston win at odds 1.77 Pinnacle W
Those odds were a gift, even if this game was a 1-1 draw for some long time. Houston has the best ability to overcome heavily defensive approaches from opponents. Great movement without the ball + teamwork and passing. Can count on them to win and create chances agains some NER type teams, that just have 10 players in the box, and wait to kick the ball on the other side of field to their lonely striker. Next game will be on the road, where they are completely opposite team, against Toronto. It will be interesting to see if they can overcome their woes and play decent game against hosts, who won't mind playing no.2 and give Dynamo opportunity to do what they do best.
Chicago's D is no mistery for me at this point, many consecutive games and same weak level of play. Offense seems to get opportunities, but again mistakes, more mistakes from D and crosses. Nothing really created, nothing coming from center of the field. Will be tough matchup against Columbus, because they probably won't exploit "offside" weakness. Chicago probably feel their game is improving, so they might open it up a little against Crew and chase W. It will make it easier for away team.

As for other games and leans:
Colorado continues their run against my doubts. As does Dallas. Time to stop hating!
But really, Colorado used the same formula again, just as I wrote about it. Penalty (ofcourse not something they created offensively), score first, keep the score level. Although Chivas also had a penalty but missed. Still their play was a great example of why you should doubt them and their hot run. One day they are 3 goals on anybody all new Chivas, next day they are 2 shots on goal worst home team last season Chivas. But Colorado have something to do with that transformation, they were quite good with holding their opponents. Still their run was against struggling or inconsistent teams (Portland that gave away goals, RSL and Chivas in bad shape) and they were always able to score first and play their game. Before that they were team, that barely scores 1, and can't hold anybody without goal (so if opponents scores first, they are dead). Next game against Seattle will be their real test. Sounders always bring offensive pressure and create chances, and will be desperate this time again, so we'll see if they can hold team of this quality and this state of mind. If I'm wrong about Colorado, this game will definately show it.
As for Dallas game it was a missed oportunity to bet under again. Dallas haven't show anything spectacular since I doubted their formation issues. LA was in fade spot after midweek loss, so confidence and fatigue were issues for them. It was written all over it, that it will be run for first goal. The one team that scores, will be very happy to keep it that way and destruct the rest of the game. The game itself was a little different, with red card, 2 missed penalties, but still shots on goal were 2-3, so it's an under type of game. Dallas can benefit from opportunities presented by schedule a lot. Next game is against Vancouver at home.
New York played well and rebounded after dissapointing loss as I expected. DC bounced in first game, and decided to play the same way at home. Just what NYRB needed. They took possesion, created chances, scored first (having Henry in starting 11 helps) and game was pretty much over. Dominating just 1 half was enough. But main thing is that they hold on to the lead, got lucky and haven't allowed DC to score. This plus the win will give them confidence in what they do going forward. So we can expect them to continue to play offensive minded football in away games.
DC with 3 L streak and their perfomance is really weak. They can't even adjust to what happened couple of weeks ago. Got dominated in first game and came up with same in 2nd. Playing against Phili at home seems like their chance, but it may be too much pressure on the team that's bleeding. What I mean by that, is that DC will need to play dominating football, control the game and be number 1 to give Phily problems and exploit their weakness. With their current form, United probably won't be able to do that. In game of chances, they will have disadvantage, cause Phily's offense is really dangerous and heating up while DC is strugling bad. This game needs a little more attention, but I think odds on Phily and their potential to take points here will be very good.
Portland and San Jose game was another no bet no lose for me, cause everybody was on the over. I was not sure about this one, because both teams were focused on D after recent games. I was already typing in lean, but stopped and deleted everything not to look stupid. Odds were so good, strong offence, not good defence, have to be this. It seems like a trap now. But game itself was even worse than expected. With focus on D it will definately be the game with slow start. Both teams more concerned on not allowing goal first, but at the same time both want win. Illogical but good for under. Nothing happening in first is always bad, cause games like that need kickstart. With both teams in illogical state of mind, game only opens up if somebody scores first. If not, they gonna foul and focus on destructing and continue to neutralise each other. Game ended with 5 shots on goal and might've been 0-0 if not for that red card. Next game is a rematch at SJ, and this is what I expect:
SJ haven't lost 2 in a row this season, so they will be expected to bounce back and dominate this home game. I find it hard to believe, because they have consistent flaws in their game. Already questioned their offence, and they continue to dissapoint. Portland created more opportunities in 6 games, than SJ did in 7. You never know when it's going to return, but may be it won't and their offence has been consistently weak this season so you can't trust historical numbers with this team right now. Second and most important, is their possession. They lose possession all the time, and it doesn't matter if they play home/road game. The best they do is to keep it close. But problem is, that Portland is team that thrives on possession advantage. This is the basis of their play style, and it's been successfull for them this season. They only lost against MTL, who are happy with counter attacking and giving away possession. SJ is completely different story, and with their passing accuracy and shot effectiveness problems they would benefit from having ball more. So this is a big problem for them, and last game Portland won it 65% to 35%. There's more to think about ofcourse, but this is one detail that's been consistent for both teams and can be the reason to bet on it.
Last game was RLS @ Vancouver. Vancouver like MTL is also undervalued heavily, getting great odds but can't cash them. Once again one sided game that ended with draw. RSL continue to struggle, they scored on superb shot, but nothing else going on for them. They will have great opportunity at home against Chivas team that always provides some extra chances for opponent's offence. This game will be tough to figure and will need a little more attention.
As for Vancouver, they have back to back with Dallas, with 1st game away. Hope they won't forget their beer bottle protection...
It's overachiever vs underachiever for me, but I won't bet on that. Vancouver needs time to establish confidence and their identity. They have some things going for them, they can score on anybody. But they fail to get deserved results and changing that won't be overnight process. Need to keep eye on them.
Damn long story, but hopefully it will help in future and save time on next week's bets.

[ExeRok]

So Columbus Phily Seattle Portland are away teams I like for next week. No odds yet so will add bets later.
As for midweek game between SKC and NYRB. NYRB is heavily overpriced. SKC was top road team last season, just 4 losses. They won one and got draw in another last season in NY, and they played very well recently. SKC haven't played on weekend, so no extra fatigue for them, while NY is an old team that can suffer from playing often. I would usually hate to bet against good home team, but they are really overpriced here and away team as good as it gets. So SKC +0,5 for 1.65 the best option for me, but Pinnacle don't have it, so use what they suggest:
Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.877

[ExeRok]

Portland Timbers pk at odds 2.49 Pinnacle void
Montreal Impact pk at odds 3.19 Pinnacle loss
Houston Dynamo win at 2.06 with Pinnacle win
SEATTLE +0.5 AT ODDS 1.69 loss
Portland - Houston Over 2.5 at odds 2.11 Pinnacle L
SPORTING KC TO WIN AT ODDS 1.73 Pinnacle W
Columbus win at odds 2.01 Pinnacle L
RSL @ Colorado under 2,5 at odds 1.81 Pinnacle W
NYRB pk at odds 2.04 Pinnacle L
Montreal win at odds 2.09 Pinnacle L
Philadelphia Union/Toronto FC Total Under 2.5 for Game 1.862 W
Seattle to win at odds 1.7 Pinnacle L
Houston win at odds 1.77 Pinnacle W
Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.877 W

6-7-1 for -1.89 u, need 1 good week to turn it upside down. Hopefully SKC win will be the starting point. That game was funny, too much acting by SKC in the end. But both teams had chances, and with them you can't be sure that 1 goal will be enough. Both can play different styles and that's what stopped me from betting under. And what NYRB tried to do I don't understand. As a result they have: lost game, haven't rested anybody, lost key player. Now all of the sudden, game against NER will be harder than expected. Probably too proud to think about short term perspective.
Odds are available, so time to look for bets on weekend.

[ExeRok]

Wow, all road teams I liked have great odds. Not looking at Pinnacle btw, so may be need to adjust to what they offer. Need to think about it more, but early draft will look like this:
Seattle pk 2.04
Columbus pk 2.34
Phila +0.5 1.83
Portland +1 1.81
Houston is road favourite, so I don't like that bookies think the same. It may not be true, so betting it on small odds doesn't make any sense.
Vancouver is +1 for 1.56 against Dallas. But doesn't matter how I feel about teams, betting weak road performers against team that should be on 5 win streak at this odds is not too good.
NYRB is heavy favourite vs NER, may be I over react after what happened today, but now they definately have some fatigue and no guy to shoot it from midfield. All this adds up for a very tough matchup at 1.72 odds to win.
RSL is another strong favourite to win against Chivas at home. Worst odds on over in this one, so it's expected to be crazy.
SKC @ LA have the worst odds on under and that's interesting to me. Can't imagine this game to go this way. Over 2 at 1.735 is safe option but it's a must bet for me. Maybe I will go with something more risky, but really like this opportunity.

[Inkwell77]

Thanks exerok, great info in this thread.

I had a winner Sunday night backing Portland, but it was only because of the red card. The fact that they can't get more than 1 goal 10-11 for 30 minutes is not that promising (especially considering their goal was on about as good of a spot as team can get). I do think Portland's defense is coming together a little.
San Jose looked terrible.
Both teams really need to learn how to attack in some sort of efficient fashion.

[ExeRok]

Thanks exerok, great info in this thread.

I had a winner Sunday night backing Portland, but it was only because of the red card. The fact that they can't get more than 1 goal 10-11 for 30 minutes is not that promising (especially considering their goal was on about as good of a spot as team can get). I do think Portland's defense is coming together a little.
San Jose looked terrible.
Both teams really need to learn how to attack in some sort of efficient fashion.

In most cases red card can hurt your chances to score, so I won't doubt their offence just cause of what happened in that game.
But you can even ignore Portland here I think. They don't have best road history, but SJ odds are just insane. They are like LA teams in baseball and basketball. Can lose 5 in a row, still 1.5 to win on next game. This may not be true because it's not connected to big market's volume of bets, but it's a tendency. Odds alone are good for me to fade SJ and what you wrote about efficiency is good reason too. They lack it (bad pass accuracy %, shots on goal %), so with possession advantage I mentioned before, they won't find more chances to overcome their inefficency. You can doubt Portland for tons of reasons, but at least they have +1 goal for a very good price.

[ExeRok]

SEATTLE -0.25 AT ODDS 2.25 Bet365
Already wrote why. If Seattle finaly scores and it will be first goal, Colorado will be in big trouble. Don't think they have enough random goals to start the game left in them, while Seattle must run out of misses too. So if both things happen in this game, it will be great.
Columbus Crew Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.917 Pinnacle
Not really sure enough to bet Columbus to win, but really like them not to lose here. Especially with Chicago being favourite. They won the game against NYRB playing number 2 at home and capitalizing on mistakes, in others they were just dominated badly. This style of play can't make them favourite against any decent team. Columbus have been playing really well, they already achieved 2 road victories, and played close game against strong MTL team. Crew have the best stats in shots on goal, they are very effective with their shots in general. They scored in every game this season, and with Chicago's weak defence and tendency to give away control of the game, they won't have problems scoring in this game too. I don't see Chicago winning here, or atleast often enough to be anywhere near the odds.

[andyrocha90]

Colorado has been looking good. why would you bet against them?

[ExeRok]

PORTLAND +1 AT ODDS 1.74 Pinnacle
You should look for better odds, some of smaller bookies have this at much better price. I bet at 1.81 but will count at Pinnacle odds. Already gave a lot of resons for this one.
Not sure about Phila bet, cause I think it's better to bet draw and win seperately, with different sized bets. Main part on draw, and win is only make it even. Or maybe just bet draw. I don't know really, but betting +0.5 is not optimal.

[ExeRok]

Colorado has been looking good. why would you bet against them?

Cause I don't agree with first sentence Even in last 3 games (saw them all) where they earned points it was:
Portland came back, and if they weren't giving away goals early at the time it would be easy win for them. Timbers dominated second half in away game.
RSL at middle of their struggle also dominated 2nd half and were unlucky with ref (they had like 2-3 penalties that weren't called).
Chivas had worst game of the season, still took them missed penalty not to draw. But to be fair Colordo had many more chances to score too. So to me it doesn't make them really better than they were at season's start (0w 3l 1d). It's when they weren't able to score first.
Who knows, maybe I'm just a hater.

[andyrocha90]

Cause I don't agree with first sentence Even in last 3 games (saw them all) where they earned points it was:
Portland came back, and if they weren't giving away goals early at the time it would be easy win for them. Timbers dominated second half in away game.
RSL at middle of their struggle also dominated 2nd half and were unlucky with ref (they had like 2-3 penalties that weren't called).
Chivas had worst game of the season, still took them missed penalty not to draw. But to be fair Colordo had many more chances to score too. So to me it doesn't make them really better than they were at season's start (0w 3l 1d). It's when they weren't able to score first.
Who knows, maybe I'm just a hater.

yea i agree with you. they are not "good" as a good team should be, ive seen most of their games this season, the portland game was very funny, and portland should have won, and yea Chivas had an off night compared to their other games, but the important thing for me is that they are getting the job done and taking advantage of the opportunities they get. Seattle and Colorado in a sense are a good match up, but the difference is that Seattle cant score and Colorado can. but I guess like I said this weekend, Seattle is on my no bet list lol. Colorado in my opinion are sabotaging themselves starting an out of shape Buddle, but Casey is just too dangerous. hard team for me to bet against.

[ExeRok]

yea i agree with you. they are not "good" as a good team should be, ive seen most of their games this season, the portland game was very funny, and portland should have won, and yea Chivas had an off night compared to their other games, but the important thing for me is that they are getting the job done and taking advantage of the opportunities they get. Seattle and Colorado in a sense are a good match up, but the difference is that Seattle cant score and Colorado can. but I guess like I said this weekend, Seattle is on my no bet list lol. Colorado in my opinion are sabotaging themselves starting an out of shape Buddle, but Casey is just too dangerous. hard team for me to bet against.

Seattle is difference for us. I just can't leave them, because: expect them to dominate and win - bet them to win - they dominate and play to win - miss miss miss miss... Can't control that last part and don't chase them based on previous results, so have to stick with Sounders, if they are better side.

[ExeRok]

Okay, already wrote about Over in SKC @ Los Angeles. I really like Houston @ Toronto to stay under. Don't really want to play Houston as road favourite, so if I doubt them, I suggest that it would be hard for them to suddenly be dominant road team and win. Add thoughts about Toronto's offence, and the way this totally "under" type team have been getting so many overs, and it's really likely this will be and under type game. May be I'm overestimating Toronto's defence, but Houston haven't really shown their offensive power in away games. Game @ Dallas (2:3) was a crazy one and fluke, and goals they scored were very situational. Toronto had big luck in last 2 home games, where they allowed away teams to come and take lead, but then they came back and scored their own goals on 3-4 shots on goal. So this one feels like it should be normal, with no confidence and dominance on offence from any side.

[ExeRok]

LA Galaxy/Sporting Kansas City Total Over 2 for Game 1.735 Pinnacle
LA was scoreless for 2 straight games, so before game with SKC they can only have 1 objective - get their offence going in this game. They have no business playing defence first game agains SKC, so they will make wheels spin for the over. SKC can be very happy with 4 points in this two games, so can't really expect them to go all out for W here. But little of pride/ego, talent of their attack and emotions of the game, can force them to do good things for over too. They let emotions get the best of NYRB today, but who knows what will happen next game. There are always reasons for penalties and bookings in this type of games, so we can expect extra help from ref.
Will wait with Hou-Tor total till tomorrow, need fresh head for this.

[ExeRok]

MY leans for other games:
Sides: Dallas NYRB RSL to win at home. Like Houston not to lose at Toronto, but odds are not too good. Phila +0.5
Totals: Under in Hou-Tor game. Over in DC-Phila.

[andyrocha90]

wow Toronto gets stung again in final seconds. LOL

Need to start live betting against them in the last 10 minutes. Total choke job

[ExeRok]

wow Toronto gets stung again in final seconds. LOL

Need to start live betting against them in the last 10 minutes. Total choke job

It's time for luck to return me many favours. Houston equalizes and now Seattle scored first. Let's see what Colorado is made of.
But seriously, Houston lucked out. Totally understand your frustration, you was on the right side in this one. I learned good things about Toronto today, and opposite for Houston. Will write about it later, but hopefully now I know a reason behind Houston road struggles.
And yeah, referees in this league... Worst I've ever seen anywhere.

[andyrocha90]

yea. im really starting to like Toronto, they are a very solid team, its just these last minutes of games, that they become an absolute nightmare. I look forward to reading what you have to say

[atofsu32111]

htf did the bookies know red bull new england over? these teams never had over and set at -127 and dropped

[Jaszaafca]

Lol crazy start at NYR

[Jaszaafca]

htf did the bookies know red bull new england over? these teams never had over and set at -127 and dropped

17.02.2013

DDC

New England Revolution

3-1

New York Red Bulls

[ExeRok]

htf did the bookies know red bull new england over? these teams never had over and set at -127 and dropped

I don't think that's correct. Over on any game wasn't lower than 2 (+100), RSL Chivas had the worst.

[ExeRok]

Seattle just can't stop wasting. If only they realised normal portion of their moments, they would be most undervalued team.

[ExeRok]

Gotta love Dallas offence "Own Goal by Brad Rusin, Vancouver Whitecaps. FC Dallas 1, Vancouver Whitecaps 0. "
Game at MTL had me confused. I knew that Crew can play different styles, but really hoped they would be more dominant after that perfomance in Chicago game. So far, not really what I expected. Not a tragedy with +0,25 bet and some good chances already, but still.

[Jaszaafca]

Galaxy goals?

[ExeRok]

Galaxy goals?

I bet game over 2, so hope that LA will score and help with that.

[ExeRok]

Finaly the score. Should already be 3 goals. But really, no way this game should be most probable to end under. After Columbus no-show really need this one, good start.

[Jaszaafca]

Finaly the score. Should already be 3 goals. But really, no way this game should be most probable to end under. After Columbus no-show really need this one, good start.

After the 1-0 its bad, gonna end 1-0 pbb.

[bosigga]

Great counter - you have a push now at least, with 15 mins to get another

[ExeRok]

Yeah also had easiest 1on1 for Keane and 1000 other moments that could make it a winner. Just can't catch a break.
Leans:
Dallas W
NYRB W
RSL W
Under in Hou-Tor game W
Bets:
SEATTLE -0.25 AT ODDS 2.25 Bet365 W
Columbus Crew Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.917 Pinnacle L
LA Galaxy/Sporting Kansas City Total Over 2 for Game 1.735 Pinnacle P
Portland +1 left for tomorrow.
Tired of complaining about luck, but it's getting unreal to watch it time and time again. Nobody to blame for not betting leans I guess.

[andyrocha90]

Are leans just your "what you would take but no bet" picks?

A lot of clear favorites won today

[Jaszaafca]

What about goals in SJ-Portland?