MLS 2013 Season

[ExeRok]

Are leans just your "what you would take but no bet" picks?

A lot of clear favorites won today

Yeah, opinions or something I'm not really confident about. But you right with favourites, I just picked many road teams, so figured there should be home winners in others. Home teams finally woke up, other than Seattle, there should be a sweep. And as always, found that trend about home winners, picked based on it one week, all ended up being draw. Now this week, there was no way you can lose while trying to find 50% home winners. Consistency and timing is the key. If timing was right for me and last week was positive, there would be no way I forget/ignore it. Work in progress

[ExeRok]

What about goals in SJ-Portland?

I wouldn't get into that. Odds reflect what I think will happen so no real value. Maybe you can try 1st half under bet counting on slow start of this game.

[atofsu32111]

andy what you think of dc game under?

[andyrocha90]

I wouldn't get into that. Odds reflect what I think will happen so no real value. Maybe you can try 1st half under bet counting on slow start of this game.

Over is possible. This game is now a rivalry considering last weeks craziness. Emotions will be running high and I thinkboth teams will be pushing hard for a win. Haven't placed a bet for this game yet, will post it later

[ExeRok]

18 mins and over in DC game. Would be funny if leans will go 6-0, and bets end up 1-2 or no profit.

[Jaszaafca]

Wondo to score @2.10 is a decent bet I think..

He will start scoring at some point.

[andyrocha90]

Live bet for DC united to win. Im smelling a comeback

[ExeRok]

2nd half might be different, but 1st was pretty much what's expected. SJ losing possession and pass accuracy <70. Portland might have a chance when Quakers will go for victory, open up and get tired. But won't mind seeing draw.

[Jaszaafca]

Really dont understand why Portland isnt a attacking team, I saw them against New York and they were pretty dangerous up front.. but seems they go for the defensive approach now.

Ah well I got SJ -0.5 and Wondo to score, so 1-0 is enough from Wondo

Ah ofc Lenhart should have scored and 2 minutes later Portland scores.

[ExeRok]

Really dont understand why Portland isnt a attacking team, I saw them against New York and they were pretty dangerous up front.. but seems they go for the defensive approach now.

Ah well I got SJ -0.5 and Wondo to score, so 1-0 is enough from Wondo

Should've listened to my advice and would have yourself a winner already
Both teams play keep deep line for Def/Midfield and don't support that's why there are always 5vs8 situations. With consistent disadvantage in numbers it hard to create anything. Portland benefit from it, because they have no pressure of going for W. SJ will definately go forward with numbers and open up.
And while I was writting, Timbers score.

[Jaszaafca]

Its almost like SJ always scores late at home..

No Wondo

[Inkwell77]

on the Portland +1

Wild line move before kickoff.

[andyrocha90]

Its almost like SJ always scores late at home..

No Wondo

Sorry bro. Tough loss. Portland looking really good

[ExeRok]

Week results:

Leans:
Dallas W
NYRB W
RSL W
Phila +0.5 W
Under in Hou-Tor game W
Over in DC-Phila W
6-0 in leans. Not counting Houston, because it would be a push, and they didn't deserved it anyway. So did well to stay away from it, but it can't dismiss it, since wrote about it multiple times.
Bets:
Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.877 W
SEATTLE -0.25 AT ODDS 2.25 Bet365 W
Columbus Crew Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.917 Pinnacle L
LA Galaxy/Sporting Kansas City Total Over 2 for Game 1.735 Pinnacle P
PORTLAND +1 AT ODDS 1.74 Pinnacle W
Already counted midweek win for SKC, so weekend ended 2-1-1 with almost 1u profit. Great week overall, but little shy in results/right predictions. I don't know why I didn't pull the plug on Phila+0.5 and Hou/Tor under, even did the writeups. I guess not enough confidence (which is a bad thing) cost me there. Still, guessed all road point takers, but decided not to follow home winners.
Games:
Was watching Houston game, trying to find out why they are completely different team on the road. It's great to watch games in my opinion, just because of the commentators. Most of them don't think like bettors (we are mostly stat heads or opinion based), so they mention many interesting details. Weather, team tendencies, player tendencies, coaching philosophies. As example Toronto. They said their coach is killing them on physical training. Not really what this team needs in my opinion, but still. How they use that? They use pressing and rely on their physical superiority to shut teams like Houston down. Normally you can't press for whole game, you get tired, crafty passing teams will deal with it well e.t.c. But with Houston it worked perfectly, especially in cold weather. Again I didn't check out the weather. Don't know if it's possible because I make my bets early in the week, 2-3-4 days before games. But playing in cold weather is a factor. So in this weather, Houston was uncomfortable and in a hurry. That's their biggest problem on the road. They rush their passes and don't deal with pressing like they should. They got squizzed out of possesion and comfort zone in Portland, same happened here. Both times they had nothing to show on offence and couldn't deal with pressing. And that's what killing them on the road. Toronto had clear stamina advantage, and set pieces were the key for Houston's comeback. They had time to breath and bring numbers into the box. Other than that and first 10 minutes, they had no offence at all. So it's one thing Toronto has going for them, but still don't like their offence. And their next game against rested NYRB will be real test for them. NY deal with pressing very well and I don't believe it will work near as well as it did against Dynamo.
Also there are games for CanadaChmp midweek, so it will be fatigue spot for Toronto. So my first opinion is that:
Toronto < NYRB.
Columbus with some weak perfomance. Once again a good example of pressing giving results. Chicago produced their offence just from taking the ball in danger areas and running from standing defence. This was complete domination and I really thought that was impossible. Crew wasn't ready in any meaning of the word, and there was only 1 way to win this, is to luck out. It didn't happen, and Chicago got their goal. This was bad bet, but when I look back I can't see any way of knowing it. Chicago can really make a living of abusing mistakes and weak defence from their opponents, but they will play MTL (also with mid week game) and it will be interesting to see what can they do there. MTL is not the team to control the game, but they will give real test to Chicago's attack, that seems to be clicking. As for Columbus, I bet them 3 straight times to get at least 4 points. They lost all bets and got 2 points. I don't think I overestimated them (because I bet against them too), so they should really start catching up (like Seattle). So with home game against DC it will be good spot for them to come out strong and make fans forget this weak perfomance.
COL>DC
LA-SKC was push, but it should've been over in this game earlier than in Phily-DC game (which took 18 minutes). Anyway, very glad with that one, odds for this game were completely wrong. SKC confirmed that they are proud team, they tried to play equal game and attack as much as hosts. Ofcourse with fatigue and great play from LA they allowed many dangerous counter attacks which led to their loss. They got burned on pretty much the same thing, that allowed them to win NYRB. Not rested, difficult matchup, but here we go. They have 3 game home stand, so won't worry for them or their morale. They are not a team that is looking for a draw before the game starts, so they won't change their attitude or their game style. Will take a close look into their matchup against Portland, but definately see them winning that game.
As for Galaxy, they bounced back nicely, and look good. You can also see that they are work in progress, so hopefully they will get on track soon. They don't usually have good odds, but they have road game heavy schedule in front of them. They can win on the road, so if they have great stretch there will be nice odds for them in those road games. Next is against RSL, and RSL doesn't look very confident. Can be a good game for LA to build on this week's success.
Seattle finaly won, but it's been coming for a long time. And now they have no game week, so later with them.
Portland couldn't hold on to win, but it was nice to see the thing I found about possession working. They had lead whole game, something like 55+%, but that stretch in the end, where they tried to hold on to the lead, evened it out. It's working for them this season, and ofcourse they will keep playing like that. They're also a team that use pressing successfully. They get the ball and then use control to establish offence and limit their opponents. There is a doubt about importance of that, because they still end up with less shot on goals and moments. But it's been constant for them and when you watch them play you see where it's coming from. This is how they like to play. It can be their weakness against stronger squads who can exploit that, or it can be their strength when they play less effective teams like SJ. As for SJ, it's easier for me to speak now, because I doubted them long time ago and they haven't show anything to prove me wrong, but I still see that a lot of people liking their chances. Who am I to talk with my "love" to Seattle and now Columbus, but I don't think SJ is the side to back. They are getting trash odds, and their game stays pretty much the same. Their passing %, effectivness of their attack, all the things I mentioned last week stayed the same. I don't want to present them like a bad team in general, because it can all change with couple of lucky bounces. But odds are the key for me. They play Portland, and get worse odds than Seattle playing NER or something like that. So combination of odds and their form leaves no choice, but to fade them. They have a road game against Chivas next time, so really curious to see, what odds they will have. Good spot to win for them, but my guess is that they will have worst away odds of weekend.
Phila is playing really well. This style is best for them. They can't rely on their defence, so they go out and score. Hopefully McInerney's great form will keep them doing that. They will play some good teams soon, but it will be at home. So later with those troubles. They get great odds and are undervalued a lot. Their next game will be against NER, so it's a good opportunity for them to keep going. Odds will suffer ofcourse, because everybody knows now, that NER is pretty much the weakest team in the league. Hopefully it won't be ridiculous. Because I really like Phily in this matchup, but I don't expect this game to be easy one by any means. Worst or not, NER can really close up and show something at home, after bad road perfomance. So will be looking for some 0.25 on Phily in this one.
The only game left is rematch of Dallas-Vancouver. Haven't seen that game, will catch up during the week. In bad spot with Dallas anyway, my confidence in them can come right when they might slow down a little. They have good schedule, but it's hard to win so many in a row. Time to stop doubting them and keep it one game at a time
BOL this week!

[ExeRok]

Almost forgot one thing. Wrote many times about bad defence, but there is a limit in every bad and it means different things to different people. DC was a great example today of what I mean. First goal: Guy is coming full speed possible 1on1, crossover 2 defenders and squeeze between them (how is that even possible?). They let him do that, let him go, 1 felt, other didn't foul. So they behave like it's no contact practice, while they are on a 3 game losing streak. Third goal for Phili was the same, guy left open on far post. McInerney is 5 feet tall and defender tries to play ball, not him. Like he will jump over, or power his way through.
So this combo of no effort, no thinking, matador defence from young players is what I wrote about. Just can't count on these guys to come out and play well consistently.

[ExeRok]

Nice to see that starters haven't played for MTL in today's game. Vancouver is dead serious with most starters playing, but they just can't play on the road. Losing to Edmonton atm.
SJ with 2nd worst away odds of th weekend, NYRB easily overcame them in being bookie favourite. But SKC getting better odds against Portland than SJ did last week.
I pretty much wrote my whole card in last posts, but NY odds are not looking inviting. But some other team looks nice, Phily LA got great road odds while Columbus, Montreal, Houston with expected home win odds. Will post bets tomorrow.

[barcelona]

Good luck.

[Vaughany]

Im playing Dallas PK @ -101. As you said Vancouver played majority of regulars against Edmonton and wasnt a comfortable game for them. Kenny Miller still injured

[bolek]

Thanx Vaughny will tail this. Make it up for last nights Newell's.....you playing anything today?

[Vaughany]

Thanx Vaughny will tail this. Make it up for last nights Newell's.....you playing anything today?

just put small play on Chelsea PK as it hit +103 on Pinnacle for a minute there. Now back at -105. I like it at Evens or better

[Vaughany]

Newell's was a shocker! Cant believe they didnt get at least a draw out of that at home against a Velez side missing some important players

[ExeRok]

NYRB @ Toronto:
Odds are not too good, but have to go with this. NYRB heating up, and I don't see them having problems while playing weaker teams. They had two losses in last 5 games, but their form was good during this stretch. Toronto is yet to lose at home, but I think it's the best situation for this to happen. They lucked out against some quality sides before, and they may need some heroics in this too. I don't think they will have success in pressing. NY have nice control and they will play it upfront, where they have very dangerous and smart players, who can create something of one on one. This won't allow Toronto to create chances from nothing, and it will really hurt their offence. So there is no real plan for TFC, while NY will probably have this game under control. They won't have ton of chances, so how well they use them will be the key. But with their offence in great shape it will up to them to win this game. So I expect NY to win this one.
New York Red Bulls 1X2 for Game 2.330 Pinnacle
Chicago @ Montreal:
Might not seem like a good spot on first look. Montreal with close game against Crew and lost midweek at Toronto. And Chicago seems to be playing real well, getting 2 W in last 3, and looking pretty well @ Houston. But let's take a 2nd look. Chicago is yet to show anything on the road. Their wins were really unconvincing. They had Columbus playing their worst game of the season, NY with some sloppy mistakes on D. At Houston they looked well, but well as and underdog. Best they could hope for was a draw. And if you don't trust me, trust their owner, who see through the fog and wants some new signings, because his team had a bad start. On the other hand we have Montreal team, that's probably worst matchup for current Fire team. And their home game was very solid all season long. Only draw against Columbus was unlucky for them. They got robbed of a good goal and they were better, not statistically, but in terms of quality. They played Toronto with reserves, so they are really focused on getting things done at MLS. So match preparation must be in place, and with very tough schedule in front of them, this must be the game to win.
Montreal Impact 1X2 for Game 2.020 Pinnacle
SJ@Chivas:
I see 2 opportunities in this one. SJ finally got some good odds, so with results coming some time soon and odds improving, their value really growing. But main thing in this one is how ugly things are for Chivas. After miracle start, they are in total mess right now. Injuries+suspensions+uncertainty is a deadly combination for this team. They don't have depth, they showed how bad they play when they have no morale. They haven't scored in forever, don't know who will be starting and don't talk to their coach. Some nice chemistry they have going on. Their D was never very scary and now they can't score or even create chances. This alone is good to fade them, and with SJ so desperate to get a W it's a really good opportunity. Last week Seattle was in much worse situation and got their W, so SJ in this one looks even better and hopefully will get things done.
San Jose Earthquakes 1X2 for Game 2.550 Pinnacle

Dallas@Vancouver:
Another fade spot for me. Vancouver played midweek against non-MLS Edmonton. They managed emotional comeback win and lots of starters logged 90 minutes. Their matchup against Dallas is an uphill battle for them, so with fatigue and emotional game, they can't be favourites. Home/Road records of this season for this matchup don't look very convincing, but Vancouver never had been really dominant home team (league average is 9 wins, they had 8 last season). With less than 50% home wins and Dallas being one of the best teams at the moment, it's reall tough to see any reason to back Vancouver at given odds. Not really sure to bet Dallas to win, because it's hard to win so many games in a row, but their pk odds look great and that's what I suggest to take.
FC Dallas Handicap pk for Game 1.990 Pinnacle

[ExeRok]

Will write others late, need a little break.
Galaxy with Donovan and Keane uncertain, so will skip that one probably.

[ExeRok]

DC @ Columbus:
With worst game of their season behind them, Columbus will be looking to get W in this game. There is doubt ofcourse of how they will bounce back, but they played well consistently this season. So no reason to believe that Columbus won't show up.
As for DC things are not looking so well. First, their streak: they are on a 4 game losing streak and those long losing streak trends are very consistent. Teams with 4 losses lost again in 8 of 16 in 2011 season, and 6 of 7 in 2012 season. It's 50% and 86%. Add to this Columbus home form. They went 9-3 and 11-3 in last 2 seasons, and can be considered among 5 best home teams in the league. So it comes down to this: struggling team on a long losing streak playing against motivated hosts, who happened to be one of the scariest home sides in the league. Will be very hard for DC to take points in this one.
Columbus Crew 1X2 for Game 1.971 Pinnacle

[ExeRok]

League stats:
Played matches: 68 out of 323 - 21.1% completed
Home wins: 50.0%
Draws: 27.9%
Away wins: 22.1%
Over 1.5 goals: 66.2%
Over 2.5 goals: 36.8%
Over 3.5 goals: 17.6%

Home wins stay around 50%, so same story as last year.
As for O/U can see that betting over is -money for now, because this year was a 2goal show with 30% of games finished with exactly 2 goals. I checked odds*% combinations and you would collect more while betting over 1.5 at 1.3-1.4 odds than you would on sweet 2+ odds on over 2.5. It's general ofcourse but still something to think about.
So, with under2.5 hitting at ~63% and being +money it will be logical to look not only for home winners, but under games too. It can even be more profitable than home winners.
Combining two of them for max profit should be correct score markets, with 1-0 2-0 home wins. Odds for this are in 8 to 11 range, and it hits very well: (1-0) 19%, (2-0) 10%. Seems like a very good angle which is cashmoney just by blind betting. But I only have data on these for this season, not really equipped to backtest previous ones automatically (maybe will do it later). I don't prefer high variance bets, but it's something to keep an eye on or maybe even try it, with smaller sized bets.

[i97g]

NYRB Under 2.5
Mon -.5
Dall Under 2.5
Philly Under 2.5
Columbus -.5
KC -.5
LA under 2.5
SJ under 2.5
Hou -.5

Been red hot the past few weeks. Just give it a look later on

[ExeRok]

Not the bets, just for tracking purposes:
Columbus-DC correct score odds: (1-0) 7; (2-0) 8.5
SKC-Portland correct score odds: (1-0) 6.5; (2-0) 8.1
Hou-Colorado correct score odds: (1-0) 8; (2-0) 8.6
Wasn't able to backtest everything in time, so will just watch what happen this week.

[ExeRok]

Haven't written exact odds for MTL game, but they were 8-11 range which was mentioned in first post. So I guess that this would be 11 cashing in.

[Jaszaafca]

Great start Dallas, I took them to score 2 goals or more @3, high odd if you look at their scores..

[Jaszaafca]

Nice Dallas

[andyrocha90]

Dallas and Toronto players must be related

[ExeRok]

Nope, Toronto defenders aren't so lucky. This should've been AT LEAST 5-2 Vancouver victory.

[ExeRok]

Wow, Portland ain't shy, 2-3 scoring opportunities already. Hopefully this team will stay under the radar, looks like the can do some damage on the road.

[Jaszaafca]

Wow, Portland ain't shy, 2-3 scoring opportunities already. Hopefully this team will stay under the radar, looks like the can do some damage on the road.

They got enough attacking powers, but sometimes they just relax to much.

[ExeRok]

Week results

Bets:
New York Red Bulls 1X2 for Game 2.330 Pinnacle W (2-1)
Montreal Impact 1X2 for Game 2.020 Pinnacle W (2-0)
San Jose Earthquakes 1X2 for Game 2.550 Pinnacle L (2-2)
FC Dallas Handicap pk for Game 1.990 Pinnacle Void (2-2)
Columbus Crew 1X2 for Game 1.971 Pinnacle W (3-0)
Another good week, another 3-1-1 for 2+ unit return.
Was really lucky with Dallas bet, because they should've lost this game by at least 2-3 goals. But then again, wouldn't mind changing that return for SJ win. Could be 4-1 with much better profit. But it is what it is.
Main success this week came from bets I decided not to make. Philadelphia, SKC, Houston all failed to achieve result, while only LA pull it off. So thoughts on that:
Made a little mistake with LA, because I just ignored everything else when saw that Donovan+Keane will miss the game. But RSL poor form + odds could very well be the reason to try pk or +something on LA.
Won't lie that I knew Houston and SKC would end up with this results, but was matter of odds for me. Just as described before, looked at it in terms of (type of game)/odds. Crew and Montreal had much better odds, and they won their games in one half. So why take low odds tougher match up games. Ain't happy with Portland win, this will be a big hit for their value. They play next game at home against NER, so you can imagine what trash odds they will get for this great opportunity. Colorado with 8 starters injured, still don't lose. Can't understand them.
Philadelphia game could end up completely different if they scored on their chacnes, but consistency is a big "?" for this team. No intensity, no desire to fight in game like this, where they could easily take points. A very common pattern for many road teams. Where Phily have consistency, is their defence. Every game they show their level and allow 2 goals. If you exclude their first meeting against NER, they allowed goal in every game, and it was at least 2 really (was lucky not to get 3 against Columbus, allowed 1 to Toronto's 1 man offence). Mentioned it long time ago, and now it's confirmed multiple times. It will be a long day for them against Seattle in next game.
Correct score:
Hopefully will have all data necessary when the odds will be available. This week was crazy, but still Montreal would cash in (2-0) correct score at 11+ odds. This would cover for all other losses: 1-0 in MTL game, and 1-0/2-0 in 3 others I posted. If you put same sized bets, it would be 11-8= 3+ units profit. Ofcourse you can't bet same size as normal bets, but still looks good. Will write about it more midweek.
Next week:
Probably won't touch Canadian championship, have no idea what coaches gonna do. From what I've seen in first games, Vancouver is serious about getting to next round so they may gamble again and make sure they advance. They play well at home and will probably get things done. As for Montreal, they won't have good chance to overcome 0-2 even if they decide to gamble. Whic I don't think they will. So with Toronto focused on this cup, they will probably advance.
Portland have midweek game against NER. This could've been great, but Portland won and now bad odds can destroy whole thing. It's a great matchup, with NER giving away possession to anybody, so Portland will have their life line. This won't be an easy game for Portland to win because Revolution will probably go 10 man defence again and there will be some fatigue and less emotion. This usually drive odds up and make people doubt things and look for let down spots. But it will be one sided and that's main thing for me. Even when Seattle failde to score and lost bet is same kind of situation, I was thinking 1.75+ odds were a great deal for such one sided game. So:
Portland > NER (if odds are 1.75 or better).
For weekend:
NYRB @ Columbus: Columbus is very fortunate with their schedule, but they are starting to show some inconsistency. They haven't played anybody as dangerous as NY. I know that NY is bookie favourite and that they still allow some stupid goals, but they are capable to play away game like it's their home. All this will probably put Crew into situation, where they have to play game of chances. And that's what's where NY (Henry Cahill especially) wants them. My guess is that odds won't present much value. I won't be looking to bet Crew in this one, so I guess many people will like the odds that they will get. I'll hope for Crew home record to kick in and make odds on NY inviting. Really think that Columbus will lose points often in this matchup.
Seattle @ Philadelphia: Seattle is the worst matchup for Philadelphia. They created ton of chacnes, and this will be a big problem for Phily's weak defence. Sounders were very good in defence, especially against counter attacks. And this is what Union will be looking for. So no real opportunities for Phily in this one. If Seattle starts converting their chacnes a little bit better this can be game where all is decided in 1 half.
Seattle > Philadelphia
Montreal @ SJ: Have to wait for odds and CanadaChmp results before thinking this through.
Toronto @ Colorado: Have to wait for odds and CanadaChmp results before thinking this through.
Vancouver @ RSL: Have to wait for odds and CanadaChmp results before thinking this through. But there can be some sweet odds on Vancouver in this one. They still can't play on the road, but may be hope that they will break through will be worth it.
Chivas @ SKC: Odds will be bad, but don't see Chivas doing anything here. Very weak defence, poor play. SKC will be angry and motivated.
SKC > Chivas
Houston @ LA: Little chance, but maybe Houston will be overvalued. No chance for them in this one the way the play on the road.
LA > Houston (at decent odds)