Probably gonna play Chicago PK @ home to Colorado on Thursday. Chicago got a nice run going now, unbeaten in last 7 at home to Colorado, and will have had an extra few days rest after not playing this wknd. What do you think?
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My opinion is shit right now, cause results are 50/50 or worse. But I wrote not long ago about Chicago.Originally posted by Vaughany
Their shot on goal convertion rate was extremely low at the time. Their number of shots was ok, even more than league average, but they couldn't turn them into goals. I'm looking through those stats now, and they are much imrpoved. Now they are at 20%. Still a long way to go, league average is 30%. So their predicted improvement is happening, but they are still at the bottom.Comment -
Chivas @ Vancouver:
*you can skip this part
My attempt with totals failed last time, but I made additional research this time and this particular game shine for different reasons.
First of all this is the meeting of two "over" teams, but odds on over are very low already. There would be ton of value in early line, but there's still some left. I made a profiling of whole league, to see what goal stats push teams to finish seasons with significant difference in over/unders. Most of the teams finish with 17-17 or 16-18 stats, and just 7 had 20-14 etc. So among those teams 3 are underish and 4 are overish. So with profiles of goal stats for last season, I made projected ones for this season. Currently there are 3 over and 4 under teams. Their early season stats already show that it's right concept, with under teams being 10-5 9-6 11-4 11-4 in unders, and over teams being 8-7 9-5 8-5 in overs. So profiling makes sence, and there are different ways you can be over team or under team. Since we have 2 over teams, there are:
1) score about 35, allow more than 60. This is Chivas this season. Toronto had same stats last season, and they finished with 20-14 in overs. From profile it's obvious, that they had many big losses, and some where they helped with scoring, but still allowed 2 or more.
2) Score more than 45, allow more than 50 or score more than 50 and allow more than 45. This is Vancouver. LA had same stats last season, Montreal had reversed one. It's for teams who score a lot, but can't really keep their goal safe. 2-1 is their score. LA and Montreal finished 19-15 and 20-14 last season.
So these two teams playing leave all kinds of possibilities for over. Goal from away team, and multiple from hosts, 3-0 win for hosts and etc.
*you can skip what's before
So, with over result in mind, let's look at matchup.
Chivas is struggling, coaching change might help, but they still have same players. They haven't played for a while, but they lost a lot of games before that. Lost winnable cup game too. This might be too much rest case and they are still the side that should show a lot, before you even start considering them dangerous.
Vancouver is playing at home. Situation haven't changed a lot since last week's writeup. They allowed early storm to punish them again, but they were able to go and get a win. So their home form is great. It will be a tough place for Chivas to make a surprise perfomance. So win is not a question mark here, question mark is can Vancouver with by 2 goals or more. They only did it once agains LA so far. But here's where Chivas and "over" stats should help. Chivas had plenty of 2 goal losses. Vancouver had a very tough schedule in home games, Toronto was first game (derby and still winter weather), NER was in great shape last week and all other teams were elite ones. They haven't played teams as bad as Chivas yet. And Chivas left strong home sides like SKC Portland with 0-3 0-4 scores. One more reasons is this:
Chivas allow same number of goals on the road and at home (54%/46%), but they score more at home than on the road (61%/39%)
Vancouver is allowing 44/56, but they score much more at home, than on the road 68%/32%.
So these combined shift possible outcomes to more one-sided Vancouver wins, than some 2-1. They'll probably get 3 goals by themselves. Pinnacle doesn't have line I need, so my optional plays are:
Vancouver -1 @ 2.07 Bet365 0.75u
Over 2.75 @ 1.9 Pinnacle 0.25u
Houston @ Montreal:
There's plenty of reasons to stay away from home win in this one, but not for me. Taking MTL to win at home @ 2 odds is autobet. Hopefully Houston got back to their usual road form, at 0-3 cup lose to Dallas. Eastern teams are much weaker hosts this season, but still those odds cover all of this.
As for total, there's some interesting trends leading to this game. Montreal is on edge of becoming over team. They are to this point (7-6 in overs), but their projected goals total still leave some uncertainty. They had 45-51 last year and were 20-14 in over, they are projected 57-44 this year. It's in the area of LA Galaxy's last season, where they had 59-47 and finished 19-15 in overs. And ofcourse Mtl is great for overs at home, where they score much more, and allow almost as much as they do in away games.
Houston also adds value to over, because their totals record doesn't match their profile. They are normal team, which usually finishes 17-17 or near that for the season. But right now they are sitting at 4-10 in overs. They had some polar results, with 1-0 victories, and then 2-3 losses or 4-0 wins. So maybe they will stay abnormal, but more realistically they will even it out with some overs run. Plus June has been very productive month, with 3 goals scored on average in the league. So this is a very good situation to take over at great odds.
Montreal win @ 2 0.5u
Over 2.5 @ 2.04 0.25uComment -
Portland @ LA:
Odds are pretty ridiculous in this one. It's not only reasonable to play it as is, with best road team getting 3.9 price on pk, but there are many more stats for this situation.
West teams this season are playing very well at home. They have 24W-13D-7L (East teams in contrast have 22-14-15). LA themselves are 2W-1D vs West this season and 8-1-3 last season. They are not a regular home team, but neither is visiting Portland. They have 5 draws against west opponents, but their road game is great and they've been at some tough places like Dallas Vancouver Seattle.
So even if we forget current LA perfomances, and give them every credit they deserve, those odds still provide positive expectation on betting Portland. +1 is at great price, and if you add minimal losses in the mix of those stats, LA will be nowhere near to cover 1.6+ that Portland has on +goal. So you can go with +0.75 handicap or do it safe:
Portland +1 @ 1.64 0.75u
Portland +0.5 @ 2.2 0.25u
Colorado @ Chicago:
Not betting this one, but some info. Chicago is heating up, effectiveness of shots on goal rising. They have decent odds to win, and play much better lately. On the other hand, they face Colorado, who's been a team you should not bet against. Their last game was not good, but those penalties/red cards dumb moves by some players doesn't really tell how team is playing, but they affect result of single game a lot.
This game is the only interconference game of the day, and it has been one sided this season. West is playing much better on the road, with 9wins 6 draws and 7 losses in AWAY games (East is 5-5-11 @ away games vs West). Colorado has 1 win (Columbus) and 1 draw (Houston) personal record. So this is something to think about if you want to bet Chicago. Historically teams play worse in away games vs other conference teams, but this season West has edge. So may be it will even out, but so far betting West guests vs East hosts has been very good.
As for totals, these are two teams that are good for under. Colorado has very good "under" profile, and Chicago is very close too it (they need to improve their defence a little).Comment -
Vancouver -1 @ 2.07 Bet365 0.75u Win
Over 2.75 @ 1.9 Pinnacle 0.25u Win
Score: 3-1
Portland +1 @ 1.64 0.75u Win
Portland +0.5 @ 2.2 0.25u Win
Score: 0-0
Montreal win @ 2 0.5u Win
Over 2.5 @ 2.04 0.25u Lose
Score: 2-0 (shoud've been 5 goals at least)Comment -
I cashed on portland as well. Why in the Fuk was the line Portland +1 anyway?!?!? La galaxy has been terrible form lately, and portland is hot and higher in standings. Should of been PK or atleast +.5 portland, not a full goal.Comment -
Great calls tonight, RokComment -
fuuck didnt pull the trigger on this oneOriginally posted by Vaughany
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Told you my opinion was shitOriginally posted by Vaughanyfuuck didnt pull the trigger on this one
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Cup results:
13 w 4l 1void
MLS results:
27.5 w 18l 3voids 14.66% returnComment -
Chivas - LA:
Even though home field for both teams, Chivas never played better or had advantage at home, while LA is always strong in their building. Their defence is great at home this year (best in the league, even better than NER), Gonzalez is back. Many problems and bad results for LA were results of constantly changing roster and absences. Anyway most of those happened on the road, at home they only dropped points against Chivas (back then they had miracle start) and it was 10 man last minutes goal and game against Houston, where Donovan missed pk and Keane was not in lineup. Last draw against Portland shouldn't be counted, not the game they will win more times than not. So LA is pretty good at home, and they have optimal roster. Team is good enough to trust in them even after couple of bad road results. Chivas can't keep up for 90 minutes, at 70 they are done and they are coming from midweek game in Canada. Let them bring their best with weak stamina like that.
LA Galaxy -0.75 @ 1.752 1uComment -
May have to take LA too.
Thinking of taking the draw-no-bet on a few home sides tonight...D.C., Philly and Columbus...
D.C are mediocre but they are playing a San Jose side that are not great as well and are poor on their travels. They got their first away win of season at COlorado last wknd but Atiba Harris was sent off after just 18mins for home side so San Jose has a big advantage. Colorado were still able to score in second half and give Earthquakes a scare. This wouldnt be enough for me to play D.C normally but Wondolowski is out as well.
New York going to Union without Olave, Cahill and Juninho I believe?
Was tempted to play Dallas PK as well but Kansas always screw me when I bet against them and they've got some key players back now like ZusiComment -
Actually, think I'll stay away from D.C. United...
Under 2.5 probably the smart play...
De Rosario, Pontius, Porter, Ruiz, Saragosa and White listed as questionable on D.C. United injury report with various ailments
FollowingSteven Goff@SoccerInsider
Ds Dejan Jakovic and James Riley both listed as out of D.C. United injury list with adductor strainsComment -
You really want my opinion after what happened last weekOriginally posted by Vaughany
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Even from your write up, why do you pick side? Just because DC is at home? It seems to me that with all you wrote this should be a draw. Maybe you don't like to bet draws, so why don't you skip it. Many people trying to find some angle to bet some shit team like DC. I did that too, no doubt, but it's just stupid. Oh I want to bet Toronto on the road so bad, they are good on paper, and they are tough and odds so good. And then you watch their shit road play and think what the hell did I do.
Just some numbers: usual home goals scored - home goals allowed is 25-18. For road team it's 18-25. DC is projected 13-34 home team, while SJ with all their overvalue and tougher schedule is 11-32. You can see who's worse in this proportion. Plus Lenhart will love to play those passive/soft defenders of DC. So you can find reasons, but you going to bet shit with not the best odds in this one.
Phily's not my type of team. They could easily be 0-1 0-2 at half. I've seen them being down to Toronto at home. Weak D, weak home advantage, opponent with strong road game. Again, only riskier options, pk won't achieve anything imo.
Columbus consistently inconsistent, but worth a shot. Magee might not be able to solve Chicago's worst problem of playing on the road.
Dallas is a gift in terms of odds and past results, and under looks like a lock. But their home results are too good. They can be on their way to a little cool down. 14-15 wins at home have been done before, but still more likely they will get little worse, with more draws and 1-2 losses.
Tough day for me, what I like have shit odds, and everything at good price is pretty dangerous. Maybe will find something in the next couple of hours.Comment -
yee staying away from DC after seeing the players missing. Just sticking with Columbus PKComment -
DC will lose to San Jose 2-0 or 2-1Comment -
yea i see a lot of value in San Jose -0.5 today. Sure no Wondo, but let's be honest Wondo has been a chump all season, and DC United is just awful.Comment -
LA Galaxy -0.75 @ 1.752 1u Half Win
Score: 1-0Comment -
PLayed the wrong one! Should of stuck with D.C instead of COlumbus! Nevermind, recouped the losses with PortlandComment -
RSL @ Toronto:
I think everytime you have an opportunity to bet on of the best teams at the moment at +0.25 with such a good odds against hosts like Toronto, you have to take it. There's should be no overthinking in this one. Some reasons:
Toronto historically doesn't win more than 9 out of 17 at home. This season has been no different. RSL is taking points more often, than they lose on the road (9vs8 on average). So if you combine these two, you have the idea of %. This season Toronto has been worse with winning at home, and RSL has been more successfull on the road. So with RSL being profitable at this kind of bet against "stronger" league in general (league average is 9 home wins), you have to like their chances vs poor hosts like Toronto. And there are plenty of football reasons too. RSL had two great months, and their current form is scary. In June they demolished everybody during home stretch, and before that they had great road trip in May. As for Toronto, they can scare some weak teams with their pressure, but don't think it will work this time. Other than that, there have been nothing special about their play, their last results were impressive only by their standarts, and those results were undeserved anyway. Some would say that having a lot of players is good trouble to have, but not for Toronto's coach. Guy is substituting the substitute and putting combo of forwards that can't work together in principle. Nothing leads me to think that they can win this game at a clip to cover odds and be favourite. So, this is safest option. You can go from here all the way to RSl win, it will all be profitable imo. As always, I'm sticking with safe one as my main play, and betting other options smaller:
RSL +0.25 @ 1.758 Pinnacle 1uComment -
Agree completely. I took RSL pk +108, also Phi/Dallas over 2.5 -124. Good luck today.
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As always, great analysis. I'll be joining you with the +0.25, just because history is against an RSL win todayComment -
Same plays for me...we got thisOriginally posted by swordsandtequilaAgree completely. I took RSL pk +108, also Phi/Dallas over 2.5 -124. Good luck today.Comment -
Phi/Dal over down to -111 but I ain't sweatin' it
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Thanks Exe, great pickComment -
RSL +0.25 @ 1.758 Pinnacle 1u Win
Score: 1-0
Just some thoughts:
There were a ton of easy bets today, so congrats to all who capitalized on them. Not possible for me to do all writeups and bets, it would take enormous amount of time. I'm not rewriting info over and over again (there's more than enough text here) so there is a lot of sense in checking previous posts to see the direction or leans. I wrote in the beginning or midmonth about overs hitting at great %. Since than it hasn't changed and just look at today's results. If you add >3 >3.5 for smaller sized to increase value it would be even more fantastic. It's a great example of the law of averages in action. This game day in particular.
Overs started hitting because beggining of the season was so underish. But if you look at connected stats (all this info was posted), there were no changes in shots and shots on goal averages. There was only one change in converting shots on goals into goal. And it was a very consistent number through the years. So it was safe to assume that it will change (dramatically for some teams like Chicago/Seattle). When you have league profile in terms of averages, it's safe to assume that in the end of the season everything will come to norm. And that's what is happening right now. And not only with overs and goals/shots ratio.
Dallas had a very good start to their season, and they are "supposed" to slow down. They won 7 out of 8 home games. That leaves 9 games. But in terms of wins, they should slow down, because 12 wins is a "limit" of home wins. It doesn't mean it can't be overachieved, but it's safe to assume that they won't break it. So it leaves them with 5 wins and 4 draw/losses in all other home games. And that makes situation for SKC much better, than if you look at their current season home/road records. It's pretty obvious that if Dallas will lose points, it will be against somebody strong on the road, like SKC. So that' what they did, they had a last minute draw. But if you don't take that info into consideration, it would be a much better picture for Dallas before that game.
Montreal proved it today too. Out of nowhere, Colorado that were on the course to some consecutive loss, came back 3 times and escaped with last second winner.
You can't predict/cap stuff like that, but you can expect it to happen. And when you combine that with odds getting much worse on those overachieving teams, it gives a great angle on undervalued dogs. Not exactly one you want to play, like Colorado today, but it can atleast stop from betting some favourites at bad prices in situation, where they are more likely to fail than before.
Unrelated to what's before, West teams continue to dominate East in interconference games (posted stats not long ago). I don't have enough history on interconference games, but last season it was very close in EastvsWest. And home teams were playing much better against away teams out of conference, than away teams from their conference. This season West is dominating, and today they continued with RSL >Toronto, Dallas=Phily, Vancouver > DC, Colorado > Montreal, and only home game for west Chivas=NER. So it's interesting to see if it's fluke and it will even out, or it's more of a scheduling thing and there's no real balance between conferences. Teams play each other only once, so scheduling is a decisive factor, because many teams perform completely opposite depending on home/away game.
Anyway, if you bet WestvsEast game, keep in mind that West have a pretty good edge this season.Comment -
any suggestions for red bull v houston dynamo?Comment -
One of the most interesting, detailed and of course useful thread ever.
Impressive.
'grats ExeRok and keep up the good work!Comment -
DC @ Seattle:
Those odds are quite bad for Seattle and usually it's a great stay away sign, because everything can happen. But there are different angles you can look at those odds and some of those angles can make you like them.
First of all, is 1.5 (which is winning 2 out of 3 to be even) so bad? DC road stats alone can make those odds seems like easy money. 0-2-5 with 1-10 goal difference. There is ofcourse a law of averages I spoke about, but in terms of road perfomance, league has no limit in being bad. 12+ losses in a season have been done multiple times before, so why the team that scored 1 goal in 7 road games and has -10 home goal difference should not be considered a candidate for equal record this season. So losing 2 out of 3 should not be problem for DC, even against weaker home teams than Seattle. Seattle at home always been strong and again, league in general is stronger than this particular DC team, so their record should be even better in games vs opponents like this.
So odds may look terrible, but in fact, they are not. So the only question is what to bet.
I think that -1.5 is the best option. Seattle has a great home field, with big crowd and it always get them going. Their goalscoring have been fantastic at home. After their slow start, they netted 4 vs SJ, 4 vs Dallas, 3 in come back victory over Vancouver. That, and the fact that they attack all 90 minutes gives a lot of confidence that they can win comfortably. Great home perfomance of Seattle has been watered down with schedule (less than 2 home games a month) and with their slow start and bad road results. And DC is in a tough scheduling spot too, even though they stayed at home, they played a lot of games before this one, and now going to another conference.
Seattle -1.5 @ 2.51 1uComment -
Just looked and my book has this at -1 -123 which looks greatOriginally posted by ExeRokComment -
Phily @ RSL:
If it was a road game for RSL, it would be a great spot for them to stop their win streak. Wrote about winstreaks long time ago, but stats show that it's hard to keep them going, especially on the road. And bookies seem to give teams much more credit, with 50+% chances of home win, when it can be close to 40% historically. And in this game RSL will miss a lot of players. They have a great depth and a lot of quality substitutes, but still a reason to be cautious. Phily despite great results is very inconsistent in their results. LWWLDDWLD etc. So you never know what to expect. With 3 home game stretch they are now on a 4 game unbeaten streak, so might be a time to lose for them. So a very hard game to pick a side.
As for total I think going with over can be a good option. Besides two 3-0 in a row against Columbus and NYRB, and two 1-0 victories over Chicago, Phily's defence haven't had the best of times. It's not like I don't give them credit for anything, but on the road they are a very good team for overs. In every game they had at least 2 goals (4wins 3voids 1loss, with odds on over 2 goals being around 1.5). So even without counting those 3-5 losses to Montreal and 1-4 at home to LA as a signs of defencive quality, this is the team that in general good for overs. RSL with many new faces can have a problem with game discipline. Plus they are on a wrong side of over/unders. They have a good profile for finishing even or with more overs, but right now they are 6-12 in over/under. Reason is that they score 5 in 1 game, then go with couple of 1-0 2-0, so general stats show they are good for over, but results are different. So this should even out and all their overs happened in "over" situations. "Over" road teams like SJ LA, "over" home teams like MTL, Chivas. So "over" road team like Phily should make betting over at good odds profitable.
Real Salt Lake/Philadelphia Total Over 2.5 for Game 1.935 0.5u
Vancouver @ SKC:
Once again the spot, where +1 is at insanely good odds. This has been very good this season, so no reason to use it one more time.
Normally I won't touch Vancouver on the road, but so many reasons here you just can't ignore them and don't risk it.
First of all, SKC has one thing that I call "Memphis Grizzlies syndrome". It's what I used in the NBA and it's been very profitable. Anytime some particular strong team get a big handicap, you should bet against them, no matter how bad matchup looks in terms of "relative strength". Because when lowscoring, underish team (hello SKC profile) gets -11 in basketball, or -1 in futbol, they won't cover it anywhere close to what odds suggest. They will get the result most of the time, but it will be smaller handicap.
So with SKC, numbers speak for themselves when you look at them against -1 handicap in home games. Last season they had 10 wins and 7 non wins. 7 non wins are our wins, and among 10 wins just 3 were 2+ goals. So betting +1 on road team would be 7 wins, 7 returns, 3 losses. This season SKC is 4-2-3 at home, with two 2+ goal wins (1 against Chivas so shouldn't be counted really. So it would be 5 wins, 3 returns 2 losses. So you get the idea.
Odds that Vancouver has are 1.8+. It's more than enough and will make this bet profitable.
Another reason is that SKC is playing worse than before, and Vancouver finally starting to look capable on the road. With their road history, it's the team you shouldn't even consider on the road. But they had a very nice run recently, and won against NYRB, had a lead @ Seattle, won against DC. If there's any time you should take the risk with them, it's now. They had two great months and play better on the road. SKC allow a lot of goals and play much weaker than they can "on paper", and until they prove otherwise it safe to consider them overvalued by bookies, and their handicaps being bigger than they should.
So even with outcome of the game being tough to predict, line is giving SKC too much credit.
Vancouver Whitecaps +1 @ 1.813 1uComment -
Tailed..... Very informative and educative. ThanksOriginally posted by ExeRokComment -
There are 2 games left for today. With Chicago I missed on early odds. Chicago is still worth a shot with their current form and SJ taking points by some late game goals or some other random events. But even with matchup looking good, I don't want to try and pick something in every game, and this one is dangerous. But as opinion I like Chicago and over.
As for Toronto-Montreal, I still get the feeling that bookies are hopeless believers in Toronto.
For a team that only won 1 home game they are getting even odds. Montreal might not be scary on the road, but they won 3 games on the road, despite very tough schedule. Much tougher hosts, than Toronto can possbily be. Plus they dropped 1 against SJ. And Toronto even with all those last minute allowed goals, have almost as much scored. So their results are not trully objective (missed wins are more valueable than escapes with a draw) but their play is not affected by bad luck. So even if you give them all the credit they can possbily deserve and not count their 1 win in 8 home games as objective result, they would still be a mediocre home team. Montreal had success against much stronger ones. So taking pk on Montreal is an obvious side.
From this point there's only more value left to find. Draw at great price and should happen quite a lot, especially with rivalry type of game.
Montreal win can be considered, since all Toronto's losses happened when they played top teams, capable on the road (NYRB, Columbus, RSL and LA that ended as a draw). +0.25 as safe option to cash on draw results. I will probably go with combo of small bets, don't really want to bet it normally with suspension of coach, rivalry and some other small reasons to be cautios.Comment -
ExeRok what do you think about going all in and taking Vancouver +443 ML (what it is at the moment)Comment -
Thanks. I saw SKC's odds and wondered why they were so short. Whitecaps +1 it is.Comment
