You rock Exerok! Great analysis as always.
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Philly down by one goal at HT..
Live Bet..
Philly -0.5 @0.75
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Let's hope! I have Philly ML and Chivas has been my killer lately. Let's get it!Originally posted by clting08Philly down by one goal at HT..
Live Bet..
Philly -0.5 @0.75Comment -
Philly level at 60 mins
1:1 now
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Oh yeahhhhhhh!!!!!! 2-1 Philly
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Live Bets -0.5 Looks Good
Full time Bet -0.75 looks promising with Chivas Red card
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Boooooooom!!!!!!!!!!! 3-1 Philly Locked
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looks 2W for Me.. Thanks ExeRok..Originally posted by AkatanaBoooooooom!!!!!!!!!!! 3-1 Philly Locked
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Phily -0.75 @ 1.73 Win
Score: 3-1
Ref played for our side, but result is fair anyway. I woke up for second half only, but Phily attacked whole half, with good chance every 5 minutes. They wasted a lot, so lucky or not, that's how it would end most of the time. Again I don't look at the weather, my regular mistake. Need some kind of reminder about it, used to cap indoor sports so don't have "checking the weather" habbit.
Chivas defence didn't dissapoint, chaos and no marking. Over cashed too.
Big day tomorrow, I noticed some spots I like. Will take a closer look and post a little bit later.Comment -
Loved your analysis. I was on Philly -1 I was happy with a push at 85 the cover at 90+ was icing on the cake.Originally posted by ExeRokComment -
Chicago @ Vancouver:
Odds are on the crossroads of two value trends. Chicago is still overrated and Vancouver at home is still under rated. Reasons are simple for both. Chicago is riding their good result/good play streak, but just one was on the road. So there should be no fear or overestimating their potential on the road. As for Vancouver, team has been completely opposite on the road and at home for pretty much 3 seasons straight. So this season story continues, they are "elite" team at home, haven't lost yet. So there is a lot of sense of backing them at home. They are on a great run since June, and they can become number 1 home team in the league if they win this game. And all of this somehow doesn't mean a thing, since odds for their win are +money. So odds wise, there is one side to play here and it's Vancouver.
As for football reasons, not much to say here. They way Vancouver play at home they will have no problem with winning midfield, and their strikers are on a roll as much as Magee. Magee scored the only chance he got last game against SKC, and that moment was created by SKC defenders. Abscences are tougher for Chicago, and their goalkeeper is not good. Comentators gave stats about him, that he's allowing 3+ goals, and second SKC goal was a proof that he's not too good. With him under pressure, chances of Chicago doesn't look too good.
I guess that also gives a lot of value for over, but I Vancouver win is the best one.
Vancouver Whitecaps Handicap -0.5 for Game 2.100 Pinnacle 1uComment -
LA @ Portland:
Situation is same as in previous game in terms of odds, but quite different on the field. LA is getting too much credit, their odds (just like any other LA franchise) has been ridiculous all season long. So betting against them might have some variance (since they are successfull team), but it has value. LA hasn't been good on the road this year, and in years before. They win around 6 games, which is not bad in general, but still nowhere near good enough to cover their odds. And it leave most of the games for ties and losses, and with Portland being one of the league top teams and getting 1.7+ on pk, it's profitable in blind betting theory. LA had a lot of bad road games, all of the games against elite home teams (Dallas, Vancouver, NYRB, RSL) were lost. They won one at RSL too, but I'm not counting one to New England, to isolate what's really improtant. Portland has no warning signs on either of those things. They have good odds, betting them was great whole year, if you exclude first games of the season, their home game was very good. Actually, it was 6 straight wins. NER got away with a draw, but it was Portland's game, and they missed ton of chances. So you have to like their chances of being favourite to win this game.
On the field it might not be so one sided as in stats and value. As I already mentioned LA might not perform well vs top teams on the road this season, but this is the team that's capable of taking 3 pts on the road vs anybody. So it won't be surprise. Add to that that they are almost at full strength roster wise, and this time of year they usually make a big run. Time for international abscences is over, and they had key players missing because of that for years. They miss Donovan in this game, but Portland has more and those players would really help them. I think that cpt. Johnson is a great motor guy, and he is essential for this team despite all their depth.
LA last results were not so convincing, wins but with late goals etc. But Keane and Zardes are playing very well, and with Portland having problems in back line, they can become problem. So on the field it can be anybody's game, and can be decided by 1 moment or 1 mistake.
So it might be that fear has big eyes, but I can't play it big in these conditions. Ofcourse that value can't be missed, but I will go as safe as I can with it. You can't profit from draw, but you can't ignore it. Maybe it's even smart to bet it, but I don't bet draws so:
Portland Timbers Handicap pk for Game 1.735 Pinnacle 0.5uComment -
dude great call I went greedy for the -1, thanks for all the analysis and most of all for sharing!Originally posted by ExeRokComment -
I need a nap, so if I will bet something for today, I will post it closer to game time. Now just my thoughts on what's going to happen.
Mtl @ NY:
Gotta love taking a shot with Mtl in this game. Their win at 4.2 odds presents a lot of value. They had most of bad games on the road, and they are not to be trusted to constantly play well on the road. But they already prooved that they can take a win in tough places, and most importantly the can score on the road. Odds more than cover for possibility of weak game and loss from them. I don't think going safer here is the way to go, if they gonna have a good game they will have a shot at a win. Over 2 goals is a super safe option for some parlays or something. Can't see this game endind with less than 2.
Mtl win 4.23
Hou @ NER:
This game has draw written all over it. That's what I thought before looking at pickem on MLS site. Those "editors" saw it too, so this is when you know it's dead wrong. Anyway betting draws is not what I do regularly, so it's not the way to go. I like home team to win here. They had a lot of success since May, and they added offence to their arsenal. So now they play on both sides of the field. Despite collapse at Vancouver, and some draws with bottom teams, I think they are still in great shape and under the radar. When you talk about slowing down, this team was not supposed to have nowhere near the results they are getting. So with Houston road woes and offence nowhere to be found, it's going to be hard for them to pull an upset. Game looks to be tight and odds are not sweet, but maybe it's just an illusion or prejudice.
NER win 2.06
Toronto @ SKC:
With all the stuff I wrote about + goal, this is a stay away game. I won't try the total either. It can go every way possible imo. Going with + goal on Toronto is also risky, they had some horrible road perfomances, and even with odds giving them value, I don't want to try my luck with this team.
Seattle @ SJ:
Was a little surprised to see total so low. -Wondo -Obafemi and what, this game now end 0-0? So my initial thought is to play over here. Odds got even better now, so I like it even more. If you want to find reasons not to, there are plenty: missing strikers (all of whom contribute big in terms of goal scored %), shitty road play from Seattle (they don't score, and look pathetic very often) etc etc. But SJ plays and defends in way, that make opponents offence much better. Toronto scored on them, and everybody have chances and goals. They can't keep a clean sheet for ages now, and games are always crazy, with ton of counters and lazy/lame defence from SJ included. They also looked like shit in some games without Wondo, so I'm not sure it will be the game where they dominate Seattle and end it in their favour and under. In my opinion it should be closer to what happend in Philadelphia-Seattle game, where it was goal fest and a 2-2 draw, even when Seattle played like total shit. Plus Seattle may benefit from Obafemi abscence, their combo with Johnson wasn't working. Now they will play more natural offence, with all eyes of playmakers on one option to pass.
So Over 2.5 @ 2.23 and everything higher (>3 >3.5) is my first choice, and Seattle +0.25 at 1.855 is my second one.
RSL @ Dallas:
Vaughany shared info on last page, so you can find some reasons there. Dallas odds on pk at home definately look inviting. I personally don't want to get into this game. Dallas gone cold big time, and counting on their victory is hard these days. So in morale stand point, they are lucky to play at home. Because RSL is coming on crazy hot, despite all their abscences. Getting a draw with -man last game, riding long win streak before that. With their depth and good morale, this is definately a team that can put up a fight. Under is a good way to go here, but odds already moved it to 2.25.Comment -
di vaio = offfside machineComment -
Closer to some gametimes, you makin any plays Exe?Comment -
Nah, I like my SJ-Seattle leans most of all, but nothing serious in general. And first games are not going right way.Originally posted by olemissbydamnComment -
I'm on Timber +142 and o2.5 for the Seattle gameOriginally posted by ExeRok
Seattle always seems to hit the over when I take them *knocks on wood* let's hop that continuesComment -
Good goal from the Timers.Comment -
Btw for a team from the USA, the atmosphere in the stadium is very good..Comment -
Ricketts is Jamaica's national team keeper isn't he? Too lazy for Google, pretty sure I'm right anyway. He looks great out there.Comment -
Except for the free kick he wanted to catch and missed the whole ballOriginally posted by olemissbydamn
But the save on the freekick of Juninho was absolute class.Comment -
And the one one one where he had a beautiful tackle at the top of the boxComment -
Originally posted by Jaszaafca
Except for the free kick he wanted to catch and missed the whole ball
But the save on the freekick of Juninho was absolute class.<br>Originally posted by olemissbydamn
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great saves! I just put some on the over 3.5, Go timbers let's finish this 3-2
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Galaxy playing pretty decent tonight.Comment -
How did Portland not score
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GoalllllllllllllllllllComment -
Fu cking crazyyyyyy porrrrrrtland!Comment -
90 mins Miracle works again... Over 2.5 won
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Portland and Seattle the two best stadium crowds by farComment -
I was on Portland PK! Thank you ExeRok once again Great work and analysis.
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Won't create another thread, just post here. Playing this in Russian Premier League today:
Anzhi Makhachkala -0.75 @ 1.877
Starting slow, so unit wise, I played it smaller than I usually do in mls. 0.5u max.
Like this one too, but not playing it:
Rubin +0.25 @ 1.877.
I have write ups but will write my thoughts afterwards.Comment -
Exerok, what is your take on the sharp line drop in tonights MLS O/U?Comment -
I haven't saw it, but probably combo of some reasons. Chicago slowing down + on the road, and Vancouver should be slowing down too. I wrote about Dallas, but Vancouver is pretty much in same position. You can't win all games, and there's a 11-12 win limit, so when you draw or lose, you usually don't score a lot. So both teams should be "pushin" for under. But it's my guess. For me it wasn't underish game, since Chicago revitalized, and now they don't play style they used to. When they were 0-1 down on the road and still didn't attack or open up.Originally posted by O
Portland Timbers Handicap pk for Game 1.735 Pinnacle 0.5u Win
Score: 2-1
Nice win for a team, that shown they have a big heart this season. No shitty games whole season and so many comebacks and dominating away games, after what they've done record wise last season.
Vancouver Whitecaps Handicap -0.5 for Game 2.100 Pinnacle 1u Win
Score: 3-1
As I wrote, Vancouver strikers are on as good of a roll, as Magee. Camilo was spectacular.
Anzhi Makhachkala -0.75 @ 1.877 Loss
Score: 2-2
Good bet, but lost. Still it was 1 sided game, with possession and moments numbers like in Barcelona game. Was not optimal situation with very hot weather and first game of the season, but you have to bet odds that will get worse and hope you hit. Loko came back 2 times with goals from nothing, Eto'o missed penalty in added time, so just a little unluck.
Rubin +0.25 @ 1.877 Half Win
Score: 1-1
Expecting Rubin to make much more damage on the road this year. They could've won this game being 1 man down for a half.Comment -
Vancouver bet was beautiful. Slow first half but the second half had some fireworks.Comment
