Originally posted by olemissbydamn
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As I wrote about basketball example, it will still be a long shot. Betting money line you can watch the game and it will be in no doubt for home team. They might still not cover, but you would think that money line was not that wrong and to actually win for a dog it would be 1 of 5 chances. Most value is in handicap itself, the fact that lose will only happen when SKC win by 2+ goals. It doesn't mean whole line is dead wrong, and that Vancouver will win much more often because SKC is overvalued. And if you don't regularly bet overvalued dogs you will probably just add 1 lose. I'm not playing them as my main plays, so I won't advice to go "all in".Comment -
Thanks for the analysisOriginally posted by ExeRokComment -
Vancouver +1 would probably be the right play if you are going to play it. They will be without Teibert who has 6 assists (tied second)Comment -
montreal 1-0 1 minute in wowzersComment -
so glad i took montreal 1-0 after 1 min down 3-1 after 28 nice job guysComment -
what a crazy game montreal scores two goals in 2 mins to tie it 3-3 haha, i got montreal pk so please just let it end 3-3Comment -
Not going to get on Vancouver went big on sounders -1 and regular play on the rsl overComment -
Coach Nelsen continues his quest. Couldn't shut his mouth about referees, and got fcuked bad by ref at packed home game as a lesson. After this season someone (maybe himself) should write a book of bad advices for football coaches, based on his perfomance this season. Chapters like "Playing Chivas style: we play 30 minutes like crazy and then die as a team around 60th minute or the day I learned people have fatigue", "Referee fault in goals that opponents scored with no fouls/offside", "My guide to players signing: least shots on goal in league means your team need more defenders", "The art of substitute: I substituted the substitute before it was mainstream" would make it bestseller.Comment -
Wow what a strike by O.Martins for Seattle
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Great picks for tonight keep up the good work!Comment -
Seattle -1.5 @ 2.51 1u
Score: 2-0
Real Salt Lake/Philadelphia Total Over 2.5 for Game 1.935 0.5u
Score: 2-2
Vancouver Whitecaps +1 @ 1.813 1u
Score: 1-1
Chicago and over.
Montreal game was a draw, so I got a little profit from my combo of small bets.
Montreal continues to be crazy team, with 6, 7, 8 and 5 goal games this season. They were the team with 14 consecutive overs last season, by far the longest streak. As always one team strikes out and continue to do it through the season. So if you like long shots, or betting their over, it's good idea to split your bet and put smaller part on >3 or 3.5 or 4 if you have those markets.
Don't want to waste time on today's games, there are some games tomorrow too.Comment -
Originally posted by ExeRok
Thanks EXEROK..Jackpot today.....Comment -
What is Toronto doing taking a guy who has no coaching experience straight off the field for QPR and just giving the guy a head coaching job????Originally posted by ExeRok
Do they take the job serious?
So you look at Portland who hired a guy who has had much success coaching in college soccer for many years and has turned the team around completely, and then you have Toronto..... Which coach would you rather have?Comment -
Excellent ExeRok. I'm new to your thread and the MLS. One of the only leagues i never touched before, but your detailed analysis and knowledge seem's to be favored here by many! And after paying close attention for the first time and with a dash of my own research to make sense of your lean and information, mainly because i like to learn and not just tail, i tailed your Seattle play but i wish i tailed all of them aha!!! Great work thank you.Originally posted by ExeRokComment -
Columbus @ LA:
Another episode of +1 goal at great price. With Columbus being much stronger than Vancouver on the road historically, this should be a no brainer, but not so fast. LA is 8wins 2returns 7 losses against -1 goal at home last season, and 3-1-3 this year. So it's 11-10 combined. Not the team you want to try your luck, especially with odds lower than even money. There can two arguments here. West teams road play was much weaker last season, and they made most of LA guests, since they are from West themselves. So with Portland/Colorado/Vancouver with 10-13 road losses in 17 games and -15 goal difference being frequent guests at LA, their record shouldn't look so strong. Also Columbus is in upper half of road teams, so they are stronger than average team in the league. Their record with +1 goal on the road proves it. They were 8 wins 6 returns 3 losses last year, and they are 5-3-1 this year. Combined 13-4 record.
With this record and "overvalued" LA record, seems like statistically Columbus have an edge. Not the team that lose by a lot, can score on the road, can take points on the road. Still, to me it's all about the hosts. It's home team that usually dominate and dictate the game. And playing LA won't be the same, as winning @Chivas,DC,Toronto. So with that in mind, LA shouldn't be underestimated in what they can do on the field.Ofcourse in terms of odds LA is not the side to back, but they are capable of achieving bad result for bet on Columbus.
Other football reasons are also not very inviting. LA has been very good at home, while struggling mightily on the road. But at home they had sensational defence and they beat down couple of tough teams like SKC and Seattle. Columbus is coming off a very weak month of June, where they had only bright spot in home win against Montreal. Other than that their play was pretty bad.
I guess the situation is a conflict of numbers vs football reasons. You don't want to play against one of the strongest teams in their place, where they have been spectacular. But odds and stats say that even with home team being capable, whole picture giving guest team great value. Here's the info, pick the one side you like. I will probably stay away. After tough road loss to Dallas, La came home and thrashed SKC. After tough loss @ NY they come home to trash Seattle. Now they are coming home after tough loss @ SJ.
Sick move to play road Vancouver and stay away from Columbus, but it somehow seems right to me...
Chivas @ Dallas:
Even though Dallas is "supposed" to slow down a little at home, Chivas might not be the team to do it. They have a 5 win "limit" and Chivas should totally be in W category for them. Chivas has always been good for surprises on the road, but not this season it seems. There is much higher "limit" of being bad on the road, so Chivas can end up among worst at season's end. They are 1-1-5 right now, and that's thanks to their March run. All their road games after their run is over are lost, 5 straight and add one in a cup against lower team too. They are playing tougher last couple of games, but they are also rebuilding in the process, waiving players etc. So it's not a sign they will get better. And in my opinion, all these makes playing Dallas win quite profitable. Yeah it's 1.43, heavy chalk but there are no signs that any other outcome will happen often enough. Chasing for 2+ goals might not be a good idea, so the only options are Dallas win, -0.75 and -1. And Dallas odds have been affected a little by their last results. So now to why bigger handicaps are dangerous.
Dallas is playing low scoring games at home. They don't score bunch, but they play very good defence. Chivas last trips to such places didn't end well (Portland 3-0, SKC 4-0,Colorado 2-0). So it's completely different story to draw 2-2 with stronger team on the road and win Chivas at home. First translates well into second, but not the other way around. So last results of Dallas are no indication to be scared for their potential display on the field. But big win for Dallas is still questionable, not the best team for it.
Their profile also leaves a question about total, that is set high. It's holiday+Chivas and all, but still one that could be a trap. Chivas seems to play tighter last couple of games, don't waste their stamina on useless pressure. And with Dallas playing pretty straight forward offence, there will be no trick to defend it. With some luck they can protect themselves from 2-3 goals. Scoring is a big problem for them, especially vs good defence and with no posession. If it wasn't a great month for overs and Chivas involved I would bite on it, but have to stay away. Main thing is that this total is a tricky one, and not as obvious as odds might suggest and I won't recommend trying over.
NYRB @ Colorado:
Colorado has been a "no touch" team for me and for good reason. I saved some losses because from the beggining of season I thought this team should not be good and most of times looked for opportunities to bet against them. So with that in mind and their great record on Independence Day I should stay away again, but hell no.
This is the rare opportunity to take NY at great odds. With them at almost full strength roster wise it's a great chance to take on of the strongest road teams at great price. If you want to take someone to beat all those altitude/big home crowd/historic records this should be a good road team. I like NY for that role so to other reasons:
Colorado is finally cooling off and law of averages striking hard. I haven't trusted myself and haven't started fading them, but last month was pretty horrible for them. Even the last win @ Montreal was not a gain for me, it was a game where they allowed 3 again. If not for great execution and always capable of failing Montreal defence they won't pull it off. Let's not forget cup game too. They have 3 home game stretch to fix it, but this will be their hardest challenge to do it, especially with little struggle going on. And when I look at their games vs top teams, even at home they haven't been impressive. Despite win @ Montreal and win vs slow start RSL, they haven't had much success:
Away lose Dallas, away lose LA, home draw with Portland, home lose to Seattle, away draw Houston, home draw Dallas, away lose Portland.
So they can certainly be outplayed even at home, and NY on their best game is capable to do it. And odds don't need NY to win actually, draw will be good. But can NY do it?
NY was not good either in their last games, but this team really played worse without their leaders. With Henry restin, Cahill on int. duty and other stuff that involves roster changing they played two times worse, than they do at full strength. They had some fails on the road, but you take chances with either team, so you have to assume some thing as not important. Colorado not playing their under game and being in bad form seems like much more of a drag to be winner of the game, than expecting NY to play decent road game and not lose. So +0.25 on NY is the play I like. Overs has been hitting crazy between these two, so might be worth a shot, especially at 2+ on over 2.5. Colorado is allowing 2 every game, and NY has never been a defensive force on the road. Have to think about best play in this but leans and info are done.Comment -
They do exactly same shit in NBA, and with my small knowledge of NHL I read that Maple Leafs made some bad decisions too. So it seems like quality managers are in need in Toronto. But it's hillarious to watch and what he comes up with is genious. He is digging it deeper with more players coming in and not fixing real problems.Originally posted by Inkwell77
Good for you man, happy to hear that you think/learn for yourself. It's the only right path imo, will give you confidence in what you do, and it's one of the most important (and undervalued) things in betting.Originally posted by Akatana
All the stuff I do here is pretty basic, just takes time and desire. Much more can be done and there are lots of good plays than I'm unable to post.Comment -
nice one budOriginally posted by ExeRokComment -
I love betting the Red Bulls but something to question- Rapids are 11-3-3 all-time on the 4th of July, all at home. They will have a sold out intense crowd and it seems the home team really gets up for this game historically. I am also interested in your take on Juninho leaving the RB's by mutual consent- any effect on the locker room? I agree on goals, I see 4 or more today.Originally posted by ExeRok
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On the over. Good luck!Comment -
Big history of overs in this fixture (Colarado vs NYRB).
Watched NYRB vs Houston, genuinely think they turned a corner in that game. This could be a good point to jump on NYRB and play them for a few games now they have their stars back and have ground out a scrappy win. Scrappy wins are very often a real confidence builder for good teams in a rut.Comment -
ahh should of played Colorado
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SKC @ Chicago:
It's quite scary to bet against Chicago these days. But that's why it's good.
Main reason is that regularly you won't find odds being so good on SKC. I know they are a little shy in terms of results this season. But main portion of it is weak perfomance at home, and in general it's underachievment for a good team. On the road they are still one of the best teams and keep their trademark style of play. Not like there's no stay away signals, but there's no reason for SKC not to have a great game either.
Chicago is another reason. Since Magee came they have been producting results non stop. First of all, this is hard to keep up. Magee was playing great in LA too and he's obvious improvement to one of the weakest areas of Chicago's play (offence). But there's still 10 other players in their team, and they haven't changed overnight. They've been winning games on offence, so their shaky defence is invisible to many. They allow to score very often, and it's been consistent weakness whole season. And in midfield, they have weaker line up than opponents almost every game they play. These things are ignored/hidden behind their great offence of late, but they'll be playing against best defensive road team. Stopping Chicago's offence, winning midfield and putting their defence under serious pressure is very doable for SKC. So seing Chicago as favourite (decent priced, but still) is a hard pill to swallow. Plus Chicago is the one team here which has major abscences.
SKC has all the tools to stop Chicago's run, and Chicago's last game against strong road team Portland was a great example. Portland was cruising for an easy 2-0 victory, but Chicago was able to pull off a draw in last minutes. I expect to see same kind of game.
Pinnacle ain't working for me right now, so I use prices from other books. I see:
SKC +0.25 @ 1.73 5Dimes 1u
Draws can't be ignored here, so odds are pretty enough to cash from draws.
Will also put a smaller bet on SKC win @2.92.Comment -
Any thoughts on the over Exe? Well over evens over 2.5. Last 3 games H2H have gone under, hence the odds, but they were all in Kansas. 3 of the last 4 in Chicago have been over. Goals don't seem like a problem for either side lately. Decent odds on over 2 as well.Comment -
My advices are cursed, so don't take them too serious. SKC is the worst team to bet over in a road game, league's best defence+under profile. Also I mentioned in write up, that I expect this game not to be goal fest, and that SKC should stop Chicago's scoring.Originally posted by stemellorComment -
Thanks. Good points and enough doubt not to play itOriginally posted by ExeRokComment -
SKC +0.25 @ 1.73 5Dimes 1u
SKC win @2.92
Score: 2-1Comment -
Smart play,
Chicago's amazing run had to come to and end sooner or later and Kansas with there attacking players and reasonably solid defence were perfect team to do it. Was gonna play it myself (Kansas PK) but just went with Over 2 in the end.
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nothing for MTL game?Comment -
Dallas at home to RSL this wknd and just like last time they met in Dallas it is during internationals. I bet big (£1000) on Dallas PK @ -190 or something last time they met because RSL were without 8 or 9 players including Rimando, Beltran, Beckerman, and also Saborio, Velasquez, and Morales, and because Dallas have never lost to RSL at home in 13 matches (winning 11). Rimando, Beltran, Beckerman, and Saborio are going to be away with NT again for this one, and Palmer will be suspended. I believe Schuler and Watson-Siriboe are also injured. With Dallas' unbeaten record against RSL, combined with unbeaten record at home this season in general the PK would of probably been a decent play anyway!Comment -
Where are ExeRok? Awaiting for your write up man!Comment -
Yes Sir, we need your expertise! If I don't confirm my MLS bet with you it feels like a shot in the dark
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Don't know if there's going to be any bets, since I haven't looked at odds yet. Will post something soon.Comment -
Chivas @ Phily:
Odds make you look for reasons to bet Chivas in this game. But let's not make that mistake.
There are a lot of reasons odds on Phily win are so bad. Usually it takes time to adjust relative power of a team. At least it's what I've seen this season betting MLS. So Chivas might still be on the tail of their horrible lose streak. But whatever the case, those odds may scare people into betting Chivas, or skipping. Despite all the things I wrote about Union before, I really like this spot for them.
Chivas draws should be a sign that team is improving. Not so fast, as their "impressive" perfomance was in the table results, not on the field. Dallas draw was fortunate, since they were able to limit Dallas chances. I wrote that Dallas play straight forward, and if you really want, you can minimize your damage against them without any problem. With Montreal, Chivas was fortunate x10. Montreal had chances to lead it 3-0 before half, and had as many in the end. Chivas was able to capitalize on collapse of MTL defence, and that's exactly how their offence works this days. This is the team that can draw at best. While there are plenty of bets, that allow to bet teams that can easily win on the road at same price, why would you go with Chivas. And their defence hasn't been improved, they've been lucky. They are still horrible on flanks, and that's where Phily can really punish them. Add to it their scheduling spot. Last game of the road trip, 4.07-7.07-12.07 and visited West-Canada-East. It's always a tough spot to perform well. Draw streaks are tha hardest to keep on going. They are on a 3 game one. Emotionally, you can't play for draw all the time. that's why they are so easy to break, and historically this is the spot they should end it more often, than not.
Philadelphia is without McInerney, but they have enough options on offence, and Casey has been playing better lately. They are usually not the home side you want to bet at 1.5, but after that beating from LA, they perfomed very well. Even draw with Dallas was their win, if not for some last second heroics. So they might not be scary, but there's no reason to believe that they will play bad. So I believe that this is great situation for Phily to take 3 points.
So main question is what to bet. I don't like -1 goal, because of how Chivas will play it. They will try to end it 0-0 again, and they don't open up even if they are losing. For Phily win is a win, even if it's 1 goal. So with neither team pushing in the right direction, and odds for -1 is being so low, I don't think it's good enough. -0.75 is my choice in sides. Not a lot of value, but I think it's optimal.
As for totals, they offer better payout. Phily's game at home are always highscoring. They are not constatnt (just like team's perfomance) but ususally over is the way to go. Same reasons can be applied for not betting over (Chivas pushing for 0-0), but with over you have more space for teams to play for you. Chivas defence is capable of allowing a lot, and they will be under real pressure today. I'm not good with totals so far, so I won't try this one.
So in terms of predicting winner, I like this game. Not the most obvious situation, and many people will be too scared to see it after latest results. But with odds being so bad, not the best situation overall. I will play Phily -0.75 @ 1.73 for smaller stake.Comment -
Awesome. I can read all day lol
I tailed this Philly play 1.3 units to win 1 unit BOL Philly -0.75Comment -
I am in! Thanks for the analysis!Comment
