MLS 2013 Season

[Akatana]

Rubin +0.25 @ 1.877 Half Win
Score: 1-1
Expecting Rubin to make much more damage on the road this year. They could've won this game being 1 man down for a half.[/QUOTE]

I was actively betting yesterday, right after i lost a -2.5 on Shakhtar i saw Rubin Kazan 0-0 it was HT and they were a man down. And then i remembered your post on Rubin +0.25, I looked at the in-game stats and Rubin were on top in all departments, I took +0.5 on Rubin HF @ 2.05, I could have even gotten higher odds than that but they suddenly started dropping and it was right when the second half was about to begin. They were solid throughout the second half even with 10 men. I'm glad i saw your post on them cause as soon as i saw the opportunity in-play at HT even when i saw that they were down to 10 men i saw a lot of value and took it.

[ExeRok]

So far, the only lean I have on today games is under in Chivas-Toronto. <2.25 main bet to profit from 2 goal game, and <1.75 or <1.5 smaller bet to collect value from great price. This should be an ugly, low scoring effort. It's dangerous to bet these teams and count on their defence, but combination of all factors make me think this is going to be less than 2 goal game.

[ExeRok]

<2.25 main
<1.75 (pinny didn't had <1.5)
Score: 1-0

[Akatana]

Cool pick once again ExeRok

[ExeRok]

Many interesting situations this week.
Couple of home favs odds you usually won't see @Seattle and @Montreal.
I won't touch Seattle for many reasons. Too many abscences is the main one.
Montreal got the same odds but is in much better spot. They are perfoming better at home. They don't have half of regular players missing or injured, in fact Just as Seattle they had bad results in last games, but not all of them were objective. Even last game, NY had one of the best games of the year against them, and the way they executed and scored was excellent. When your opponents play like this, there's nothing you can do. And as for opponents, Montreal got better one than Seattle too. Dallas is a slump, and playing on the road has never been their strength. Their offence is simple, and it will be a great relief for struggling MTL defence. They've been collapsing and losing their man, but against Dallas they have a chance for solid perfomance.
So between these two, choice is simple. Mtl has same odds, but multiple advantages. It's a great spot to use "bad recent form" odds increase.
Montreal Impact Handicap -0.5 for Game 1.990 Pinnacle 0.5u*
*I may add to 1u later, I just started exploring possible bets, so if it ends up being one of the best opportunities I will add to it.

[ExeRok]

SKC @ RSL:
Great spot here. Very strange line with SKC being such a big underdog. Team that usually has ugliest of odds at any place in any form, now getting great odds. They are playing great and I'm sure they will be going for victory in this game. RSL has insane streak of their own, but this is where I like this bet even more. With so many missing players, they've got a surprise 3-0 win on the road. So emotionally, this squad should be in a let down spot. Before Dallas game they escaped with a draw against Phily, so I have no doubt that SKC is the team to stop them. Producing miracles time and time agains is a hard task, SKC can use their quality and their steady play to not lose here. But I really think they will win. Main bet is safe one, but putting smaller stake on SKC win.
Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.943 Pinnacle 1u

[stemellor]

I like the under in the RSL vs SKC match as well.

[ExeRok]

Vancouver @ LA:
Wrote about +1 spread vs LA before, so same story again. Vancouver is playing too damn well to ignore them. It's always dangerous to play them on the road (plus they are a type of team that can end run like that with some 0-3 no contest lose), but there's a very good safety bag. Taking them +1 goal makes sense, but I will try to go further. Why not win something, even when they lose with 1 goal difference. Odds are quite good for that. A lot of ways to profit from this line, but I will go with safest.
Vancouver Whitecaps Handicap +1 and +1.5 for Game 1.649 Pinnacle 0.5u

[Vaughany]

this New York game is painfully bad. Red BUlls are woeful

[oldscho0led]

Played Whitecaps for 1 unit on +1 also. I just don't see why LA is heavily favored against a team on a streak.

[ExeRok]

Montreal Impact Handicap -0.5 for Game 1.990 Pinnacle 0.5u* Loss
Score: 0-0

Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.943 Pinnacle 1u Win
Score: 2-1

Vancouver Whitecaps Handicap +1 and +1.5 for Game 1.649 Pinnacle 0.5u Half Win
Score: 1-2

[kacher1135]

blue. good pick. i wait you

[ExeRok]

Couple of words abour Russian league for those, who might be interested:
Because season started at odd time (July, when usually it was fall-spring calendar) overs are hitting at insane rate. I wanted to mention it earlier, but waited for all teams to play. So it might be nothing, or it might be the month or so period, when overs will hit very often (just like June in MLS).
So if you are looking for some total play, look towards the overs.

I like one game for tommorow. Ural is getting +1 against Spartak at home. This is a very bold line, after what Ural showed against CSKA. Even though team is newly promoted, this won't be an easy place to play for anybody in the league. They play with great energy and have solid execution on offence. So Spartak being 1.5 road fav in this spot makes no sence. They have shown a lot of inconsistency in the past, and their first game wasn't pretty. Odds are more like trash home team - best road team type. My opinion is that it's matchup of mediocre home team vs mediocre road team. No way +1 at 1.85 price is a bad bet here.
Ural +1 @ 1.85

[frugalgambler]

Couple of words abour Russian league for those, who might be interested:
Because season started at odd time (July, when usually it was fall-spring calendar) overs are hitting at insane rate. I wanted to mention it earlier, but waited for all teams to play. So it might be nothing, or it might be the month or so period, when overs will hit very often (just like June in MLS).
So if you are looking for some total play, look towards the overs.

I like one game for tommorow. Ural is getting +1 against Spartak at home. This is a very bold line, after what Ural showed against CSKA. Even though team is newly promoted, this won't be an easy place to play for anybody in the league. They play with great energy and have solid execution on offence. So Spartak being 1.5 road fav in this spot makes no sence. They have shown a lot of inconsistency in the past, and their first game wasn't pretty. Odds are more like trash home team - best road team type. My opinion is that it's matchup of mediocre home team vs mediocre road team. No way +1 at 1.85 price is a bad bet here.
Ural +1 @ 1.85

Hey ExeRok. Great MLS picks. As for the Russian league, you probably should not be making predictions based on one round. Spartak lost a lot of points last year to the bottom feeders. This year, have have already stated that they would really concentrate on avoiding that. But you are right the over have been hitting (e.g. 2 out of 3 today) and the books have not adjusted yet. That will change in a couple of months when the weather starts to affect the pitch quality and the players start to get tired a bit.

[olemissbydamn]

Whatcha got today bud?

[ExeRok]

Whatcha got today bud?

Played Vancouver win and New England pk couple of days ago. Didn't had time to post properly, but those two plays are still good, even with odds decrease.
There's a lot of interesting games this week, a lot of angles but I'm not trying to win them all. Still, there are a lot more plays to be made, almost all necessary info can be found in previous posts. Don't have time to make proper write ups this week. Maybe before games...
I'm now playing more games live, so I just leave some games to get better odds during game time.
A lot of odds decreased a lot, but from what I liked midweek:
Fade RSL again. With NY playing great at home, RSL should be losing again. NY got some sweet odds (2.00+), you can rarely get those. But clearly road team power is overestimated by their previous run and table position. RSL will be happy to get draw.
Fade LA on the road. Colorado was underdog, now favourite. But still odds are great. Not the safest play, but great value in it.
Draw/road teams in Columbs@Toronto Portland@SJ. Can't get what I want from those lines/matchups. Portland had +1 at 1.7+ last time I bet them against SJ on the road. Ofcourse it was a joke back then, but playing them at much worse price with much weaker play recently is just stupid. So I still think they are undervalued here, but with so many draws in their games, there's no other choice but to bet straight draw. Not my thing.
In Toronto's game I think there's a good strategy, to wait for early goal in live, and bet under. I will try to do that.

[Akatana]

Thanks for the input. I also played Vancouver win @ 2.02

[ExeRok]

Put a bet on under 3 ~1.94 live in Toronto game.

[dvdmas]

THAKS Exerock ,you are the best in the Mls , you see pick some more?

[dvdmas]

Bad Luck ,goal in 87 and 95 ,VOID ,no problem ,some pick ,super Exe ?????????????

[i97g]

played vancouver win and new england pk couple of days ago. Didn't had time to post properly, but those two plays are still good, even with odds decrease.
There's a lot of interesting games this week, a lot of angles but i'm not trying to win them all. Still, there are a lot more plays to be made, almost all necessary info can be found in previous posts. Don't have time to make proper write ups this week. Maybe before games...
I'm now playing more games live, so i just leave some games to get better odds during game time.
A lot of odds decreased a lot, but from what i liked midweek:
Fade rsl again. With ny playing great at home, rsl should be losing again. Ny got some sweet odds (2.00+), you can rarely get those. But clearly road team power is overestimated by their previous run and table position. Rsl will be happy to get draw.
Fade la on the road. Colorado was underdog, now favourite. But still odds are great. Not the safest play, but great value in it.
Draw/road teams in columbs@toronto portland@sj. Can't get what i want from those lines/matchups. Portland had +1 at 1.7+ last time i bet them against sj on the road. Ofcourse it was a joke back then, but playing them at much worse price with much weaker play recently is just stupid. So i still think they are undervalued here, but with so many draws in their games, there's no other choice but to bet straight draw. Not my thing.
In toronto's game i think there's a good strategy, to wait for early goal in live, and bet under. I will try to do that.

what do you think is the better play - nyrb over 2.5 (-120) or under 2.5

[lucasdawg]

suggestions for dynamo v chicago fire?? and dallas v stoke?

[ExeRok]

suggestions for dynamo v chicago fire?? and dallas v stoke?

I like Houston, but odds are not good. I would like to bet -0.25 on them, but they got win @ even money. I will wait to see if something pops up in live. Maybe Chicago scores first or first half with no goals will give more value on Houston.

[lucasdawg]

im not great with MLS as im from aus but i got drilled when dynamo v la so I stopped following them as i thought they were a strong team, but ive been reading and i dont think chicago has a comparable attacking like dynamo?

[mantorras77]

ExeRok love your style! What do you think about the Seattle/Chivas game today. Chivas sucks on the road and Seattle not to shabby at home. I know the odds aren't that good but I was thinking a Seattle -1 (hope for win settle for push). What do you think?

[O]

Paging Exerok.... aka King of MLS........where you at playa? Need to see if I am on the same side as you!!!

[ExeRok]

Montreal @ DC:
Bookies hate Mtl, so no other way to go but to play them almost every week. And today, it's a very good spot to exploit that hate. Problems with defence has been obvious, so last 2 games Montreal really picked it up on defence. Not ideal ofcourse, but still much better than what was happening in June/early July. That's very important for away game. Their results are really irrelevant here, because when you look at their road schedule, it's mostly big boys of the league. And even against such a strong opposition MTl has been getting some points. So the only real comparison can be Toronto game. The game that started horribly, with 1-3 at 18 minutes or something. So that's the only way DC can get their victory. But with Mtl paying more attention to their defence, I expect DC to have real trouble in this game. They are limited on offence and can't really keep their goal safe. So I think that MTL is in a very good position today to get it done. Really tough choice of what to bet, but since I couldn't decide between win and pk, I will go for middle:
Montreal -0.25 @ 2.14 Pinnacle 0.5u

[ExeRok]

Chivas @ SJ:
Wow, SJ love is back. SJ hasn't won with 2+ goal difference this season, even at home. And most of their home results are undeserved. And all of the sudden they are such a heavy fav to win this. So add that to current Chivas form, who has been very respectable after all that mess that happened. Their loss to Phily was by 2 goals, but it was not a regular game. Othr than that, they got a pretty good run. So playing Chivas +goal here is a very good opportunity. Lose bet only when SJ win by 2? I'll take that. So there's choice again, between +1 and +1.25. Odds are not that bad on +1.25, so I will take it.
Chivas +1.25 @ 1.847 0.5u

[dvdmas]

Thaks ExeRock

[DarkNite]

Montreal @ DC:
Bookies hate Mtl, so no other way to go but to play them almost every week. And today, it's a very good spot to exploit that hate. Problems with defence has been obvious, so last 2 games Montreal really picked it up on defence. Not ideal ofcourse, but still much better than what was happening in June/early July. That's very important for away game. Their results are really irrelevant here, because when you look at their road schedule, it's mostly big boys of the league. And even against such a strong opposition MTl has been getting some points. So the only real comparison can be Toronto game. The game that started horribly, with 1-3 at 18 minutes or something. So that's the only way DC can get their victory. But with Mtl paying more attention to their defence, I expect DC to have real trouble in this game. They are limited on offence and can't really keep their goal safe. So I think that MTL is in a very good position today to get it done. Really tough choice of what to bet, but since I couldn't decide between win and pk, I will go for middle:
Montreal -0.25 @ 2.14 Pinnacle 0.5u

I love Montreal, but every time I bet on them I got Impacted, when I bet against them, they win. I do not understand. Today, Montreal is huge fave and pub likes it, by no mean here, when I look at line, it tells me to go with DC pk and ML. I still remember when Montreal played against Toronto, I picked Montreal to win, but as you have said. So today, I pick DC pk and ML.
Good luck to you!

[Vaughany]

why do MLS games never start when they are supposed to?! swear this New York game was supposed to start at half-past?!

[phenomenon]

as I heard it s about time difference in regions mate... as I said I only heard this

[swordsandtequila]

why do MLS games never start when they are supposed to?! swear this New York game was supposed to start at half-past?!

Most sporting events in the States don't start on the hour/half hour, usually 10-20 minutes after. MLB, NFL, etc., 7pm game usually starts around 7:10 or so. TV has a lot to do with it, got to give the talking heads their two minutes. Got nothing to do with "time difference in regions", whatever that means.

[O]

SKC 22 (7) shots on goal vs. 4 (4) from NYB and it is 1-3 NY?

[DarkNite]

I love Montreal, but every time I bet on them I got Impacted, when I bet against them, they win. I do not understand. Today, Montreal is huge fave and pub likes it, by no mean here, when I look at line, it tells me to go with DC pk and ML. I still remember when Montreal played against Toronto, I picked Montreal to win, but as you have said. So today, I pick DC pk and ML.
Good luck to you!

Today I like Toronto to be x against NE