Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**Da Manster!** · 08-28-19, 08:38 PM

being the resident DJ for this forum, Nasher sent me a request via PM to play this song...more than happy to oblige!

**darrell74** · 08-28-19, 08:39 PM

gotta hand it to him, got a sense of humor

**KVB** · 08-28-19, 11:21 PM

Organizing my Funds and graphs and realized there is a mistake in tracking for the KVB MLB Visiting Dog Fund from last year.

This post will serve as the new official link in last year's summary.

Here's the summary as previously posted, the title is a link to the Fund description and the the "Total" link is to the entire summary...

			1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC
Record	Date	NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund	per bet	Line	Closer?	Average

52-30-1		Total	18.73		52-16-15	0.692771

The error is in the BTC columns. Here's the original from Sept 22 of 2018...

5-3	KANSAS ST +15 (-105)	-1	15.5	N	0.5
6-3	KENT ST +28 (-105)	0.95	28.5	Y	0.5
7-3	TTECH +13 (-105)	0.95	14.5	Y	1.5

The last two columns should have two more N's and be negative, not positive, respectively.

I have corrected the error and here is the new official record from last year...

				1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC
	Record	Date	NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund	per bet	Line	Closer?	Average

153	1-0	15-Sep	LSU +9.5 (-105)	0.95	10	N	-0.5
157	2-0		C MICH +14 (-105)	0.95	14	PUSH	0
185	3-0		TEXAS ST +10.5 (-105)	0.95	9.5	Y	1
193	4-0		AKRON +21.5 (-110)	0.91	21	Y	0.5
216	5-0		RHODE ISLAND +9.5 (-110)	0.91	9.5	PUSH	0
237	5-1		DELAWARE ST +47.5 (-115)	-1	47	Y	0.5
331	5-2	22-Sep	N ILLINOIS +10.5 (-105)	-1	10	Y	0.5
363	5-3		KANSAS ST +15 (-105)	-1	15.5	N	-0.5
365	6-3		KENT ST +28 (-105)	0.95	28.5	N	-0.5
371	7-3		TTECH +13 (-105)	0.95	14.5	N	-1.5
375	8-3		COAST CAR +3.5 (-105)	0.95	3	Y	0.5
405	9-3		TEX A&M +24.5 (-105)	0.95	24.5	PUSH	0
155	9-4	29-Sep	TOLEDO +7.5 (-105)	-1	10.5	N	-3
169	10-4		S MISS +27 (-105)	0.95	27	PUSH	0
171	11-4		IOWA ST +10.5 (-105)	0.95	11.5	N	-1
177	12-4		UTEP +10.5 (-105)	0.95	10	Y	0.5
193	13-4		FLORIDA +8 (-105)	0.95	7	Y	1
207	13-5		STAN +4.5 (-105)	-1	4.5	PUSH	0
311	14-5	5-Oct	UTAH ST +3 (-120)	0.83	0	Y	3
337	14-6	6-Oct	MARYLAND +17.5 (-110)	-1	17.5	PUSH	0
339	14-7		TULANE +7 (+105)	-1	7	PUSH	0
347	15-7		MIA (OH) +3.5 (-105)	0.95	5	N	-1.5
363	16-7		UTAH +5 (-105)	0.95	4	Y	1
373	17-7		N WESTERN +11.5 (-105)	0.95	10.5	Y	1
407	18-7		FLORIDA ST +13 (-105)	0.95	14	Y	1
113	19-7	12-Oct	AIR FORCE +10.5 (-110)	0.91	11	Y	0.5
169	19-8	13-Oct	WISC +7.5 (-110)	-1	10	N	-2.5
185	20-8		TENNESSEE +18 (-110)	0.91	15.5	Y	2.5
207	20-9		WYOMING +19.5 (-105)	-1	18	Y	1.5
303	20-10	18-Oct	GA ST +14 (-105)	-1	13	Y	1
311	21-10	20-Oct	VANDY +11 (-105)	0.95	11	PUSH	0
313	21-11		CINCY +3.5 (-105)	-1	2.5	Y	1
319	21-12		MARYLAND +10 (-105)	-1	10	PUSH	0
321	22-12		VIRGINIA +7.5 (-110)	0.91	6.5	Y	1
349	23-12		UTEP +24 (-110)	0.91	21.5	Y	2.5
393	24-12		UTSA +17.5 (-105)	0.95	15.5	Y	2
395	25-12		CHARLOTTE +16.5 (+100)	1	15.5	Y	1
403	25-13		MISS ST +7 (-120)	-1	6	Y	1
405	25-14		USC +7 (-105)	-1	7	PUSH	0
407	26-14		SJST +27.5 (-105)	0.95	25.5	Y	2
131	27-14	26-Oct	LA TECH +3.5 (-105)	0.95	3.5	PUSH	0
129	27-15	27-Oct	C MICH +5.5 (-105)	-1	4.5	Y	1
135	27-16		ILLINOIS +17 (+100)	-1	16.5	Y	0.5
171	28-16		TULANE +3 (-105)	0.95	-1.5	Y	4.5
173	28-17		TEXAS A&M +3 (-105)	-1	0	Y	3
187	28-18		PURDUE +2 (-105)	-1	-2.5	Y	4.5
315	29-18	2-Nov	PITT +7.5 (-105)	0.95	7	Y	0.5
331	29-19	3-Nov	NAVY +11.5 (-105)	-1	12	N	-0.5
359	30-19		C MICH +13.5 (-105)	0.95	15	N	-0.5
371	30-20		SJST +13.5 (-105)	-1	17	N	-3.5
385	31-20		STANFORD +9.5 (-105)	0.95	9.5	PUSH	0
389	32-20		TEXAS A&M +5 (-105)	0.95	3.5	Y	1.5
399	33-20		KANSAS ST +8 (-110)	0.91	10	N	-2
405	33-21		PENN ST +13.5 (-105)	-1	13	Y	0.5
415	33-22		UTSA +21.5 (-103)	-1	21.5	PUSH	0
101	33-23	6-Nov	KENT ST +20.5 (-105)	-1	17	Y	3.5
141	34-23	10-Nov	KANSAS +12 (-105)	0.95	9.5	Y	2.5
143	34-24		AKRON +13 (-105)	-1	11.5	Y	1.5
153	35-24		N'WESTERN +10 (-105)	0.95	10.5	N	-0.5
165	35-25		CHARLOTTE +14.5 (-110)	-1	13	Y	1.5
169	36-25		BG +7 (-110)	0.91	7.5	N	-0.5
179	36-26		WISC +10 (-105)	-1	7.5	Y	2.5
195	37-26		CAL +5 (-105)	0.95	4.5	Y	0.5
211	38-26		RICE +25 (-110)	0.91	24	Y	1
217	39-26		S MISS +11.5 (-105)	0.95	13.5	N	-2
305	40-26	14-Nov	MIA (OH) +6.5 (-105)	0.95	6	Y	0.5
329	41-26	17-Nov	N'WESTERN +3 (-110)	0.91	3	PUSH	0
347	42-26		M TENN ST +14.5 (-105)	0.95	16	Y	1.5
371	43-26		UTSA +24 (-105)	0.95	27.5	N	-3.5
387	43-27		ARKANSAS +19.5 (-110)	-1	23	N	-3.5
393	44-27		BG +7 (-110)	0.91	6	Y	1
407	45-27		TEXAS ST +23.5 (-105)	0.95	22.5	Y	1
413	45-28		UTEP +7.5 (-110)	-1	6.5	Y	1
417	45-29		IOWA ST +3 (-110)	-1	1.5	Y	1.5
421	46-29		SDSU +15 (-105)	0.95	10	Y	5
145	46-30	24-Nov	PITT +4.5 (-110)	-1	5.5	N	-1
153	47-30		RUTGERS +28 (-110)	0.91	24.5	Y	3.5
167	48-30		WAKE +12.5 (-110)	0.91	10	Y	2.5
179	49-30		N MEX ST +9 (-110)	0.91	7	Y	2
185	49-30-1		TROY +11 (-105)	0	11	PUSH	0
191	50-30-1		COLO +12.5 (-105)	0.95	10.5	Y	2
207	51-30-1		KANSAS ST +14 (-110)	0.91	10.5	Y	3.5
209	52-30-1		LSU +3.5 (-105)	0.95	3	Y	0.5

	52-30-1		Total	18.73		50-18-15	0.63253

Sorry about this, but the reason I am tracking is to make graphing points of some of these functions and straight reporting is essential.

This error happened on Sept 22 of last year, thanks for helping catch the error, fukkos.

**KVB** · 08-28-19, 11:49 PM

It's not like I didn't predict the downturn here, really missing that 3 units from Sunday now.

The Fund has lost 6 straight plays and 9 out of the last 10. The incredible run and the all that quiet sideways charting has given way to volatility and a drop. I timed a unit increase decrease well here.

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 571 plays...

953	28-Aug	PIT +137	-1
958		CHC/NYM UNDER 7.5 (-112)	-1
964		DET +183	-1
978		COL +163	-1

		Wed	-4

		Weeks 1-5	-1.32
		Weeks 6-10	-1.23
		Weeks 11-15	-4.9
		Weeks 16-20	6.19
		Week 21	4.49
		Week 22	0.58
		Mon	-3
		Tue	-0.78

		Total	-3.97

Still on the bigger unit in the RL Fund at it's gone negative, hoping it climbs back.

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund through 97 plays, after losing 4 straight...

917	27-Aug	TB +1.5 (-125)	-1
924		SEA +1.5 (+105)	-1
962	28-Aug	SEA +1.5 (+140)	-1
967		TB +1.5 (-105)	-1

		Week 23	-4

		Weeks 1-5	-4.92
		Weeks 6-10	-4.59
		Weeks 11-15	4.86
		Weeks 16-20	-4.55
		Week 21	-1.13
		Week 22	3.21

		Total	-11.12

Quite the slide this week all around.

**Da Manster!** · 08-28-19, 11:54 PM

Shari just PM'ed me and made a song request!...anything for you my dear!...

**Da Manster!** · 08-28-19, 11:58 PM

**KVB** · 08-29-19, 12:03 AM

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

...

No Jerky, it was a good question and I saw it, just hadn't gotten that far yet then got a little busy so I waited until the end of today.

571 Total play and 183 of them are Totals. Getting killed by the UNDERs there...

KVB MLB Contrarian Fund TOTALS performance:
28-Aug	1 Unit
	per bet	Wins	Loss	Push	Cancel	Total

OVER	4.83	35	28	1	1	65
UNDER	-11	51	59	5	3	118

Total	-6.17	86	87	6	4	183

That leaves 388 moneyline plays that are up +2.2 units. Remember, the Fund just loss 8 of it's last 9 moneyline bets.

Tragedy.

28-Aug	Plays	Units
Overall	571	-3.97
Totals	183	-6.17
ML's	388	2.2

I think you asked what % were moneyline dogs and it's almost all of them, very few favorites are getting bought here and those a that are are line -108.

After a good run, really dropped some moneyline units recently in another shakeout, the wave came crashing down...

**KVB** · 08-29-19, 12:23 AM

Originally posted by KVB

...The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has picked up...

133	29-Aug	UCLA +140
137		FL INT +135
147	30-Aug	UTAH ST +150
193	31-Aug	SMU +140

This is value investing...

The NCAAF UPSET Basket has added...

281

31-Aug

ILLINOIS ST +155

Football is upon us.

**KVB** · 08-29-19, 08:54 AM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

913

29-Aug

OAK/KC OVER 10 (-115)

**KVB** · 08-29-19, 10:58 AM

The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund has picked up...

	Record	Date	NCAAF ATS/ML Fund
	ATS

141		29-Aug	KENT ST +24.5 (-105)
144			BYU +6.5 (-105)
235			S DAKOTA ST +15.5 (-110)

The KVB NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up...

	Record	Date	NCAAF Totals Fund

136		29-Aug	G TECH/CLEMSON UNDER 61.5 (-105)
158			PURDUE/NEVADA UNDER 58.5 (-105)

Links to the Fund descriptions are there and I'll get into them more when I have time.

**KVB** · 08-29-19, 12:04 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added....

916 TB/HOU UNDER 9 (+100)

**KVB** · 08-29-19, 12:19 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

915 TB +1.5 (+115)

On mobile but wanted to get this in on the jump from 110 to 115. Trying to avoid the RL sweep in this series.

**KVB** · 08-29-19, 01:37 PM

**KVB** · 08-29-19, 02:44 PM

Let's quickly go over the mainstay NCAAF Funds then get to the market functions.

Here's the original although not very descriptive KVB NCAAF Totals Fund...

Originally posted by KVB

...the KVB NCAAF Totals Fund. This Fund will track NCAA Football Total plays generated using a blend of two methods. First, the games will be handicapped with a stacking percentages forecast and that will overlay a market analysis that includes regressions and can often take a contrarian form. There will be triggers to plays, but they won’t always be bought at the open. There will often be time for the market to mature, providing more information to develop a play, which can result in better or worse numbers...

It does explain why I am not always hitting openers in this Fund. Here's last year's performance...

			1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC
Record	Date	NCAAF Totals Fund	per bet	Line	Closer?	Average

74-62-1		Total	7.58		80-31-26	0.583942

Here's the units chart in order of date and rotation...

Here's the running avg in it's performance against the closing line.

At any point on the line, it is the avg discrepancy against the close season to date. So notice the first play of the season didn't beat the close, it lost by 2.5 points. The second game beat the close by 4 points , giving the avg of .75 and as the season progresses the chart stabilizes...

In the SBR comparison I don't really use the prices and that's why I called the closing line comparison "crude" but as you can see, if we can avg. more than half a point then the metric here, even though I call it crude, is very usable. I'm not putting my value of some of these numbers out there.

The reason I posted all these is so that we can combine the charts and have more occurrences to see how we are doing against the close, and possibly predict when to up the stake.

Excited for this year, expect the Totals to provide winners, as usual, and I'll try to post them as soon as they are made to try to beat line movement as these will move quite a bit.

The first two plays were already posted...

136		29-Aug	G TECH/CLEMSON UNDER 61.5 (-105)
158			PURDUE/NEVADA UNDER 58.5 (-105)

**KVB** · 08-29-19, 02:46 PM

The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund follows the same description as the Totals Fund and that's pretty much all the Title link in the summary tells you.

Here's last year's performance, including that crude closing line comparison...

Record	Date	NCAAF ATS/ML Fund	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ATS	BTC ML
ATS			per bet	Line	Closer?	Average	Average

52-33-2		Total	13.01		39-23-28	0.362069	0.13

There were actually only 3 moneylines made all season long, in the first two weeks, and they all lost.

Here's the season chart...

Here's the running avg of the Fund's performance against the closing line...

We'll add to this chart as well as things move forward. Interesting how as the the Fund was winning units, it's avg against the close was dropping.

Expect to win this year again with this Fund, it can be a tough one and sometimes catches the market on the move so again I'll try to get those plays posted as soon as possible after making them.

The Totals and ATS/ML are not what I consider the market functions, but the UPSET Basket, Visiting Dog Fund, and a larger upset Fund that I may introduce to serve as functions, just part of the natural give a take of the market and as we build those charts, we can see some more value.

This was to show last year's ATS/ML Fund activity and for this and the Totals Fund we'll probably get more value out of the running avg closing line chart.

Here are the current KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund plays...

141	29-Aug	KENT ST +24.5 (-105)
144		BYU +6.5 (-105)
235		S DAKOTA ST +15.5 (-110)

**KVB** · 08-29-19, 04:12 PM

Damn, might have to sell back Illinois St, might have jumped the gun in the UPSET basket there.

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

908

29-Aug

ARI +174

**KVB** · 08-29-19, 04:32 PM

Doves, are you in the house?...

**KVB** · 08-29-19, 05:20 PM

Here's the original description to the NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund...

Originally posted by KVB

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund seeks to use a stacking percentages forecast that is enhanced by both market analysis and situational factors that allow adjustments to the forecast. Some of those adjustments can be sizeable and a bet can be triggered as the adjusted prediction falls within the offered spread. Further, it’s not always about the visiting dog, it can be about failure on the home favorite’s part of the equation.

There will be no moneylines in this Fund and the target circle and number of plays will vary each week as the stacking forecast methods will be enhanced by different factors, many of them determined by the ever changing market. The target circle will be much wider than that of the ATS/ML Fund and as always it is expected to be a grind.

The factors and thresholds being used in this fund, while they have been known to be volatile within a season (making it ideal for a Total Return Fund) move, have produced double digit ROI’s over thousands of plays. Some of these factors, over more than a dozen years, have been positive to the forecast enhancement every year. One major factor has shown recent weakness, and over the years that has been followed by major success, every time.

From a numbers perspective, next to Totals, the visiting dogs are where it’s at in college football and we expect big things from the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund...

Here's last year's performance...

			1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC
Record	Date	NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund	per bet	Line	Closer?	Average

52-30-1		Total	18.73		50-18-15	0.63253

Here's the season chart...

Here's the running avg of the Fund's performance against the close...

This was the best performing Fund last year and had the best results against the close. This is essentially a market function year in and year out but it ran really hot this last year. Instead of going in depth with the charts, I want to save that for the UPSET Basket.

Then we'll look at a new Upset Fund, and it's chart, to see what we have.

**dlowilly** · 08-30-19, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Let's quickly go over the mainstay NCAAF Funds then get to the market functions.

Here's the original although not very descriptive KVB NCAAF Totals Fund...

It does explain why I am not always hitting openers in this Fund. Here's last year's performance...

			1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC
Record	Date	NCAAF Totals Fund	per bet	Line	Closer?	Average

74-62-1		Total	7.58		80-31-26	0.583942

Here's the units chart in order of date and rotation...

Here's the running avg in it's performance against the closing line.

At any point on the line, it is the avg discrepancy against the close season to date. So notice the first play of the season didn't beat the close, it lost by 2.5 points. The second game beat the close by 4 points , giving the avg of .75 and as the season progresses the chart stabilizes...

In the SBR comparison I don't really use the prices and that's why I called the closing line comparison "crude" but as you can see, if we can avg. more than half a point then the metric here, even though I call it crude, is very usable. I'm not putting my value of some of these numbers out there.

The reason I posted all these is so that we can combine the charts and have more occurrences to see how we are doing against the close, and possibly predict when to up the stake.

Excited for this year, expect the Totals to provide winners, as usual, and I'll try to post them as soon as they are made to try to beat line movement as these will move quite a bit.

The first two plays were already posted...

136		29-Aug	G TECH/CLEMSON UNDER 61.5 (-105)
158			PURDUE/NEVADA UNDER 58.5 (-105)

Any chick who has a Marilyn Monroe tattoo is baaaaaaaad news

Hit it and quit it

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-30-19, 12:19 PM

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-30-19, 12:59 PM

**KVB** · 08-30-19, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Right (meaning the left, larger breast).

**KVB** · 08-30-19, 01:08 PM

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-30-19, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by KVB

**KVB** · 08-30-19, 04:20 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

953 NYM +138

957 CIN +125

962 ARI +110

963 SD +120

976 KC -105

978 LAA +113

979 CHW +187

Good Luck.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-30-19, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by KVB

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

953 NYM +138

957 CIN +125

962 ARI +110

963 SD +120

976 KC -105

978 LAA +113

979 CHW +187

Good Luck.

Action Jackson

**KVB** · 08-30-19, 04:54 PM

**KVB** · 08-30-19, 04:59 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

968	30-Aug	TOR +1.5 (+120)
979		CHW +1.5 (+100)

As we head into the last hour before these games close, we could see a better line. These numbers are good enough and I have to head out again. So I picked them up now.

**KVB** · 08-30-19, 05:36 PM

The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund has picked up...

150

30-Aug

S FLORIDA +10.5 (-105)

It's got that contrarian hint to it and I like how this developed in the marketplace.

**KVB** · 08-30-19, 06:18 PM

Check this out guys...

turtledoves, aka cashout ken, recorded a rap song, produced by Fidel_CashFlow, aka youngjoseph21.

They were in the studio forever, but produced a real winner!!!!

**KVB** · 08-30-19, 06:19 PM

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-30-19, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Check this out guys...

turtledoves, aka cashout ken, recorded a rap song, produced by Fidel_CashFlow, aka youngjoseph21.

They were in the studio forever, but produced a real winner!!!!

**KVB** · 08-30-19, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-30-19, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by KVB

**KVB** · 08-30-19, 06:56 PM

Youtube was on autoplay in the background and in between method man songs that song popped up as an ad.

Someone not only paid to make it, they paid to get it exposure.

There are 3 youtube comments below that video, DDD.

They are...

Adrian Juarez said just 3 weeks ago...

That beat was flame not gone lie

A week later Nicholas was like...

needed this song right now

anthony Richardson is much more succinct...

Fire