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I like to buttfukk ppl lolComment -
We are at our destination
See y when we back on the road
Love uComment -
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could've had the friend of a lifetime. bike rides, ice cream, bowling, you blew it bigComment -
Quite simply the best touring act in the business today. Hands down.
The ultimate compliment is when thousands of devoted fans sing Mr. Brightside in unison to perfection.
Give it a listen.
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when the rain starts to pour
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The last five minutes of this is incredible.
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Driving myself nuts here plying both markets. Was going to dump GE after the div ex date, which I though was the 27th, mixed it up with another stock and should have sold days ago.
Fuk.
Not even a gambling unit total, but it's not about the money, it's about the mistake.
Neck fukkin getting in the way too. Shit dropped off fast. Had aggressive acupuncture yesterday, first acu in years, as predicted, it stirred the nest.
Knocked me on my ass yesterday and last night.
Then I tried to get up this morning...
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NFL play from Chiropractor office. Cinc/Atl Over 51.Comment -
Hope so , will allow us to get back to getting back to ......
i know of some places to get shit that costs 1,800.0p at other places
for only 1,150.00. And perpetual spots to keep stocking up on toppings at one hot spot
we will talk , I’m so close now , all the hard work is done , waiting for a few things
to arrive, and polish off my menu and execution and we good
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Fourth inning, 0-0, LIVE play here...
3230167 - Baseball - New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves / Game / Total / Over 4.5 +101
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The Visiting Dog Fund has added...
171 IOWA ST +10.5 (-105) over TCU
The stacking forecast has TCU winning with 30 points to Iowa State's 21 points. It's already a 9 point game at 51 points and your selling a 47.5 -48 point Total? One could adjust the line based on that Total and it's pressure downward, but they don't. In fact, that line is frozen at 10.5.
We're in a situation where a close 9 forecast gets adjusted, and the margin is bigger, yet the line is still 10.5.
So I am happy with +9 in a 51 point game. But the "efficient" market gives a lower Total 47.5 and I get 10.5 points.
The edge is found there. Sharon might come out for this one.
When I say, in a correlated parlay sense, that the lower Total the more likely the dog it is likely exploiting the public tendency to ramp up the favorite and the over. They figure, the dog will score, and if the favorite is the play, then the Over could come too.
The Favorite and the Over, in fact is a correlated parlay that books have stamped out. But the public's still thinks they can profit.
Right now, the public likes TCU but the they also like the Under. It's early and my play isn't based on these facts.
The play is based on the stacking forecast and an adjustment made because of the Total offered in the marketplace.
Think of it like this, say I have a 9 point game going 51 points, but want to squish that game into a 48 point game. You can't just take 1.5 points off of each score. That wouldn't be equitable.
If you take a percentage off of each score then the larger score will have more points deducted than the smaller score and the overall margin will be less than say the 9 we started with.
Is the 48 too low? Maybe it's the line that's off. If so the bet would look like a pass. But I thought these markets were efficient?
Now, say where looking at an offered Total of 55. Can I expand the spread margin and find myself on the favorite?
No.
Because remember, this is a visiting dog fund.
So the stacking forecast was created independent of the lines offered, made before they come out. Then there is an adjustment because the offered Total is in a range. I am making an adjustment based, not with on field and player stats, but with the market opinion itself.
I know the market isn't trying to predict the score, or not supposed to be anyway, but we also know that it can reflect an opinion, a live real time one. The opinion is the mix between the players and the books taking the action they desire.
Data mining issue, or market function?
Neither, it's just an inefficiency that is created by that mix, has been before I discovered it, and looks to be one for a long time. But hey, perhaps we are dealing with a market function of sorts.
I stand by the adjustment. Right now, these are some of the hottest plays I produce.
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gonna take all night to read this
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It's like the LSU play, only a little more detail on just one of the factors of the LSU play.
Seems like a mathematical error to use the market that way, but I wish I had been doing it all along.
Caught on many years ago, but some good years passed. Sometimes it could make the only difference between a pass and a bet and preceded market moves in it's direction extremely often in those cases, except when the market didn't' move.
I suspect the public will be on TCU throughout and if that line doesn't move up, or even ticks onto 10, we may have good play here.
I think it ticks down, causing RLM when sharps groups can hit it hard. I suppose the books will take the favorite trickle, with 10.5, they could be anticipating a sharp drop, to get to 10.
These plays are hot, and tend to run in streaks, so I like it still, despite hitting a few early season.
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May not be a great day for the Contrarian Fund.
Had acupuncture, still feeling the effects, got some things moving, kind of sucks but a small bit to endure for a longer process.
Have ice tied to my neck and shoulder right now.
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