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The NCAAF ATS/ML Fund has picked up...
BOISE ST -113 over OK ST
N MEX ST +3 (+100) over N MEXICO
DUKE +4.5 (-113) over Baylor
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Line literally moving when I was trying to post.
I'm getting sick of that, it seems like have more important things to do at this hour than try to post plays...lol, trying to be true to lines that are moving, I'm posting what I bought, these lines will move in the meantime at this hour of the day.
I got 66 in Arkansas.
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This is going to get confusing...lol.
The UPSETS Basket has added...
ARK ST +115 over TULSA
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line movement scaring me off of the indiana underComment -
Fuk it, I put in all my BTP plays already, despite having 9 NFL bets pending this week.
Miami vs N.Y. Jets Under 43.5 (-120)NFL [General]
09/16/18 01:00 PM ET
Army -6.5 (-115)NCAAF [General]
09/15/18 12:00 PM ET
Florida State -3 (-120)NCAAF [General]
09/15/18 12:00 PM ET
Houston -1.5 (-110)NCAAF [General]
09/15/18 04:15 PM ET
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I'm on the Under in the Cubs game.
Heading to work out, hopefully the neck holds.Comment -
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when handicapping, do gamblers care more about the home team? the away team? the local team? their favorite team? the good team? the streaking team? maybe human tendencies will cause the gambler to focus on one side more than the other? one factor more than the other?Comment -
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What type of gamblers? Pro type or average joe's? There is a huge difference in how and why they buy plays, for pro's it becomes about the number and only the number.
Also, there are streak riders and breakers that make up the market.
To talk general tendencies, look at what some of the Funds do. The Contrarian Fund often finds itself on Unders and Dogs, because, as it's been known for decades, the public like favorites and Overs and often the books shade the line that way. It's tougher now because that shaded line either gets hit or is just shaded with vigorish.
We can deal with the vigorish to a degree.
But look at other funds. Even back in the March Madness power posting days, that tracking pointed to it as well...Totals markets are weaker, especially in college. I put the Totals Fund in the Total Return fund immediately with that expectation.
Also look at the other Funds. We have a Visiting Dogs spread fund, competitive moneylines that focus on road teams in the UPSET Basket.
Road teams, and dog road teams, can be exploited right now, evidence shows, in both college and the NFL. When you add the idea of the home team failing to it, you get some good adjustments.
It is a grind over time and that can never be forgotten.
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KC/PIT under 53.5Comment -
Not going to finish the accounting tonight, I'll deal with it tomorrow.
Not a bad day given all the plays, but I think the UPSET Basket did horrible.
Just what I was hoping, a solid drop in the market early, it may be time to move it into the Total Return Fund.
Not doing anything else now. Turning off the sports screens for a couple of hours. I already have 8 NFL plays in, the 9th was Cinci.
I doubt I generate any more and will probably have to get lucky tomorrow given week 1 success. If I do get lucky tomorrow, it will be fade city next week...lol.
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yo Kevin, you tried any of the rolled ice cream yet ?Comment -
what was that smoken was saying about 50 fades?
i showed him. you gotta lotta nerve to play me
Last edited by turtledoves; 09-16-18, 01:56 PM.Comment -
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oh hushComment -
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I have 11 NFL bets going off today. That's a lot.
In and out today, but I just made two live bets...
Cleveland to win live +286, they are tied 3-3 with NO.
I also picked Washington to come back and win -140 over Indt.
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